there are several. main one is this

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/Slowtwitch_Forums_C1/Triathlon_Forum_F1/Andrew_Talansky_and_Oceanside%3F_Predictions%3F__P6592144/

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

That one is the Talansky thread...this is the default official overall thread since it is not slanted to any athlete (in the thread title).

Frodo has to be out for some revenge post Kona. Can't wait for this weekend. Lionel's swim in the Windsor 1500m local swim meet was pretty awesome for an adult onset athlete. This is going to be fun!

Lionel #1
Jan #2
McNamee #3

[i'm pretty stocked to check out the live coverage by Ironman] = sarcasm

Hi all. Just popped into the other thread about this race and the chances for Talansky...
First, I think Frodo will beat Lionel, I am sure after Kona he has been working really hard and wants to be back to the headlines....
Sorry for Lionel's fans, but it is painful for me to see this guy running and swimming. He's got a huge engine, but from my POV he will never win at Kona or at 70.3 worlds.... he loses too much time with his bad technique in the water and on two feet. Lots of respect,though....
The podium will be
Frodo- Reed- Sanders

I wanted to talk about Talansky. Even coming from cycling, he was a top TT, used to ride hard on a TT bike, swimming and running background and still young. I think he will have a shot in full IM in a couple of years, not in 70.3s.... He can do a top 10 in this race though

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Will oceanside be streamed in anyway?
If not what are the upcomming watchable 70.3/IMs?

Couldn't be more wrong, Lionel just pee'd in his wet suit on the Oceanside beach (check out TCox new vid) and has claimed it as his own! The other racers stand zero chance, Jan won't even be able to step on the beach without feeling and smelling Lionel.

Hahaha. That was a good one.....
I wouldnt either....

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Have you seen the improvements Lionel has made in the swim recently. He went 18:50 for 1500 m at a swim meet in a long course pool with no speed suite. I don't know what that computes to Ocean wetsuite swim but that was over 1 minute faster than his PB which he set with a speed suite in a short course pool. He has been LASER focused on his swim technique and if you have been following his training videos, I don't think the gap will be as big as in previous years but we'll see. I predict a great battle between Lionel and Jan.

On the women's side, really curious to see how Paula Findlay does, and is Holly Lawrence back to 100%.

I am a huge Lionel fan and am impressed by his swim improvement, but, what sort of time do you think the top 70.3/IM swimmers would do a 1500m LC in? I am thinking a couple of minutes faster. My prediction is that Lionel loses the front pack and comes out of the water 2 minutes down.

Not the poster, but I'd guess ~15:00-15:45.

Re: The whole Jan vs Lionel thing ... Lionel is one that plays that up, not sure I have heard Frodeno say "The only person I think about is Lionel". I also don't believe Jan has been training for Oceanside like its the April World Championship

That said ... Everyone will race hard, if Jan (or Tim or Sam or David M etc.) is head to head with Lionel they will race hard but its April and some of the guys simply do not sharpen their sword this early. In light of all that Lionel wins unless he doesn't make it through the surf break on the swim :-0

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Dave Latourette
http://www.TTENation.com

In the past Frodo has raced well at Oceanside, but it's primarily a sponsorship requirement to make an appearance on the US mainland once a year. Unlike Lionel, he doesn't see this as a big proving grounds or race (at least in years past). This is simply an early season race. Perhaps this year it means more because of his rough day at Kona last year, but I doubt it. That said - Jan is a racer so he won't simply walk it in, I just don't think he has been doing treadmill intervals with images of LS in his head.

I hope they leave T2 together or close - would at least make the live coverage interesting!

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"It's good enough for who it's for" - Grandpa Wayne

Men:
1. Frodo
2. Sanders
3. Reed

Women:
1. Holly Lawrence
2. Sarah True
3. Anne Haug

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

For the men, I'm going to go 1, 2 and 3 exactly from the pro start list:

1. Sanders
2. Frodeno
3. Reed

All things being equal, I do think Frodeno could beat Sanders on the run if they both head out of T2 at the same time. My prediction of Sanders winning overall is based on him either having a small cushion on Frodeno after the bike or that fatigue will set in on the run after Frodeno pushed hard on the bike to keep up with Sanders. I don't have anything to back this up, but I questioned if Frodo's problems at Kona stemmed from trying to stay with Sanders/Wurf/Kienle on the bike.

For the women:

1. Lawrence
2. Jackson
3. True

Someone asked above live coverage but I didn't see any responses. Anyone know what coverage options IM will be offering?

I see Haug on the pro list... is she not racing? I'd have to think she's the favorite based on recent performances.

Men
1. Sanders
2. Frodo
3. Reed

Ladies
1. Lawrence
2. True
3. Jackson

Men:
Sanders outruns
Frodeno late
4+ minutes back to
maybe Lagerstrom

Women:
Haug runs down
Lawrence late
Findlay (sentimental choice)

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

Haug is racing, and she will probably win, Lawrence second.

McNamee is out due to illness. I predict Jan takes it before Lionel.

I doubt any pro triathlete is going under much under / if at all 16:00 in a 1500 LCM. Gomez went a 15:56 last year in short course (I think). Which is like a 16:20.

18:50 is a great swim. Solid guess is Frodo would go around 17:30. An 18 low guy with the right execution is going to come out with the lead pack most years in Kona. LS is almost there.

Within the past few months, I had a discussion in a prior thread about what kind of 1500 scm times guys like Frodo and Potts could do if they had a pre-Kona swim meet the week before the race. The consensus was around 16:15-16:30 for 1500nscm or 1650 yd, so 16:45-17:00 for lcm. You don't think Frodo and Potts could go 17 or 16-high for lcm??? I can't recall with whom i had this discussion, maybe Tim "SnappingT" from Magnolia Masters and/or Tim "tallswimmer".

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Yeah, I’m no expert, but considering at the last Olympics only 13 people broke 15 minutes, the idea that a triathlete is going to be between 15-15:45 seems like insanity to me.

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Dan Mayberry
Amateur a lot of things, professional a few things.

Lionel was holding ~75 seconds per 100m for his 1500m LCM. If someone holds 80 seconds in salt water with a draft, they swim 50:40. This would be 2 minutes faster than what he raced in Kona last year. That would put him 2 min outside the pack with Bozzone, Lang, McNamee, Potts, Hoffman, Cunnama, Rana, TO (and a virtual Lucy Charles if she swam with the men) etc. So how much would salt water save vs losing time on turns?

Looking at the Kona results, there is the high 48 crew and then the crew that went 51 min flat and then 53+ (Lionel in that group). Even if he can get into the 51 min crew, it's a great starting point. I also think that as his swim gets stronger, his bike+run have the potential to be stronger since ideally he's going faster with the same energy utilization (or less) per second. So minimally he gets out of the water a bit earlier and uses less kilojoules just be being earlier, but in an ideal world he gets out earlier and his rate of depletion of kilojoules (in otherwords his power) is lower too, leaving more glycogen for the bike and run. If he can swim faster while relatively burning more percent from fat, that's a great virtuous cycle that every strong swimmer benefits from in the Ironman, something often overlooked in our discussions aroound here, mainly because no one has a swim powermeter telling them their kilojoule utilization...on the bike you can see exactly how many kilojoules you blew through to T2 before starting the run with your glycogen tank on fumes. After the swim, no one can measure this accurately.

Good thread for an awesome race!

Men
1) Sanders
2) Frodeno
3) Leiferman

Women
1) Haug
2) True
3) Lawrence

Appleton
Reed
Mcnamee