Too much talk of tennis players and nike commercials - let’s talk tri. So it’ll be 16 years since the US has had a winner on the men’s side (and 22 on the women’s side). Why such a long stretch and who will break the streak?
Chris Lieto came painfully close in 2009. A solid swimmer and great biker, he just couldn’t quite put the run together at Kona. Crowie out running him for the win in finishing chute at Boise 70.3 was taste of things to come later that year. He was in the lead for a large portion of the run but Crowie put together a 2:48 run split (compared to Lieto’s 3:02) en route to a 2 minute victory. Since DeBoom’s victory in 1996 only two others have podiumed – Hoffman (2nd in 2014) and O’Donnell (3rd in 2015)
Who are the top Americans?
Ben Hoffman. He surprised a lot of people with his solid 2nd place finish in 2014. He clocked a stellar 8:13 for 4th in 2016 which would’ve been fast enough to win most years. Has won IM’s at Lake Placid, St George, CDA, Wisconsin, and Africa. He’s solid at all three diciplines. However he has been plagued with injuries this year. His biggest limitation was his birth year. He’s now 35 and in the prime of his career. Unfortunately for him the front end is faster and deeper than ever before. I think he could beat Jan, Gomez, Kienle, Lange, or Sanders. But I don’t think he’d be able beat them all at the same race. And all but two of them are younger than him
Tim O’Donnell. I think he only has two IM victories (South America and Boulder), but he’s been pretty solid at Kona (6th in 16, 3rd in 15, 5th in 13, 8th in 12). But he’s on the wrong side of father time. He’s turning 38 this year which only Crowie has won at that age.
Andy Potts. Has been in the top 10 at Kona six times (7th in 08, 9th in 09, 7th in 12, 4th in 14, 4th in 15, 7th in 17). Like TO, it seems like he’s on the wrong side of father time at 41. But he did bust out a Kona PR of 8:14 last year. However most of us are left wondering how good he could have done if he dropped the Gatorskins and Kestrel and went with a ST approved setup back when he was fast enough to leave everyone else in his swim wake.
Matt Hanson. He was my dark horse to podium at Kona last year but his was one to forget. He’s got 4 IM victories (Chatanooga, Texas x3) and currently holds the record for the Ironman Brand (with an asterisk for the short bike). He’s only 33 so he has a few years left to peak. His run is a great wildcard, but in order for him to crack the podium (or win) he’d need to find a way to get to T2 at the same time as McNamee, Nillson, Lange group. He’s my pick for the top American this year.
Ben Kanute. Has yet to do an Ironman and I believe is focused on Tokyo and the mixed relay. But he has had solid showings in his five 70.3 distance races. Most notable of course is his 2nd and 4th place finishes the past two years at Worlds. He’s just 25 so he’s got a ton of time and all the top guys now will be on the downturn or retired by the time Ben hits 30 and starts getting into the prime IM years. Alistair would be 35…but I can’t see him having a long IM career given his injury history. Obviously some of the other ITU guys will likely take a shot at Kona at some point as well (J.Brownlee, Mola, Blemmenfelt, etc). But that being said, he’s my pick to break the American cold streak. Maybe in 2025????
So who do you got? Top American this year? Next American to win (or even podium) and when? I was going to do the same for the women, but this took a bit longer than I thought and I really should get back to work…
Matt
Chris Lieto came painfully close in 2009. A solid swimmer and great biker, he just couldn’t quite put the run together at Kona. Crowie out running him for the win in finishing chute at Boise 70.3 was taste of things to come later that year. He was in the lead for a large portion of the run but Crowie put together a 2:48 run split (compared to Lieto’s 3:02) en route to a 2 minute victory. Since DeBoom’s victory in 1996 only two others have podiumed – Hoffman (2nd in 2014) and O’Donnell (3rd in 2015)
Who are the top Americans?
Ben Hoffman. He surprised a lot of people with his solid 2nd place finish in 2014. He clocked a stellar 8:13 for 4th in 2016 which would’ve been fast enough to win most years. Has won IM’s at Lake Placid, St George, CDA, Wisconsin, and Africa. He’s solid at all three diciplines. However he has been plagued with injuries this year. His biggest limitation was his birth year. He’s now 35 and in the prime of his career. Unfortunately for him the front end is faster and deeper than ever before. I think he could beat Jan, Gomez, Kienle, Lange, or Sanders. But I don’t think he’d be able beat them all at the same race. And all but two of them are younger than him
Tim O’Donnell. I think he only has two IM victories (South America and Boulder), but he’s been pretty solid at Kona (6th in 16, 3rd in 15, 5th in 13, 8th in 12). But he’s on the wrong side of father time. He’s turning 38 this year which only Crowie has won at that age.
Andy Potts. Has been in the top 10 at Kona six times (7th in 08, 9th in 09, 7th in 12, 4th in 14, 4th in 15, 7th in 17). Like TO, it seems like he’s on the wrong side of father time at 41. But he did bust out a Kona PR of 8:14 last year. However most of us are left wondering how good he could have done if he dropped the Gatorskins and Kestrel and went with a ST approved setup back when he was fast enough to leave everyone else in his swim wake.
Matt Hanson. He was my dark horse to podium at Kona last year but his was one to forget. He’s got 4 IM victories (Chatanooga, Texas x3) and currently holds the record for the Ironman Brand (with an asterisk for the short bike). He’s only 33 so he has a few years left to peak. His run is a great wildcard, but in order for him to crack the podium (or win) he’d need to find a way to get to T2 at the same time as McNamee, Nillson, Lange group. He’s my pick for the top American this year.
Ben Kanute. Has yet to do an Ironman and I believe is focused on Tokyo and the mixed relay. But he has had solid showings in his five 70.3 distance races. Most notable of course is his 2nd and 4th place finishes the past two years at Worlds. He’s just 25 so he’s got a ton of time and all the top guys now will be on the downturn or retired by the time Ben hits 30 and starts getting into the prime IM years. Alistair would be 35…but I can’t see him having a long IM career given his injury history. Obviously some of the other ITU guys will likely take a shot at Kona at some point as well (J.Brownlee, Mola, Blemmenfelt, etc). But that being said, he’s my pick to break the American cold streak. Maybe in 2025????
So who do you got? Top American this year? Next American to win (or even podium) and when? I was going to do the same for the women, but this took a bit longer than I thought and I really should get back to work…
Matt