Looks like no one is interested in this?

I think he hits 54kmh. No clue on the power this will take... 450watts?

He made it through PR so 8 weeks to prepare, fine tune position etc.

I'm interested in it for sure. I just don't have very much to say about it =) Of the most recent hour records, his attempt is definitely my most anticipated. What he's done for British cycling culture (along with Cav, Brailsford et al) is impossible to measure, but definitely worth thanking them for.

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The safe money is on him breaking the current mark.
Having said that, I wouldn't bet on him reaching 54km personally

Rohan Dennis has a good track pedigree himself, and I just can't see Wiggins going a full 1.5kmph faster.
Maybe if his pacing is spot on - but there are so many ifs and buts...

Good luck to him. As a Brit, I'd love to see him dominate it and put down a lasting marker. He's certainly the best placed to do so.

Yeah, the current record is still probably a bit soft so he should break it if he has a good day. But 54km might be pushing it.

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He covered 44km in 50:39 at the Olympics (52kmh and change).
In 2014 he won the TT at worlds in 56:39 over a 47.10km course. That is roughly 49.9kmh.

That is where I pulled the 54kmh from. I wonder how is form is compared to 2012? He has said he has better form now than last year.

54 kph is what a nicely enhanced Rominger did in the "triathlete" position on a double diamond Colnago with really narrow tubes and dual disks and a fairing for a helmet.

Let's assume that Wiggins is not EPO'd up, which I think is fair assumption, and he has to use a real helmet and not a fairing head piece, I think Wiggins on a superior frame is not enough to go faster than Rominger. So I say no to 54 kph but over 53.000

Dev

Having said that, I wouldn't bet on him reaching 54km personally

If he doesn't, then someone will beat him before long.

I definitely expect him to go somewhere over 53 and get close to 54. Expectation is tat he isn't as doped up as Rominger but he is a more experienced track rider. And i think that has to count for something, starting with holding a better line and covering less distance per lap.

I had no faith in his ability to win Paris Roubaix but he is probably as good as it gets to go and set the new world hour record. It would be a great accomplishment. I sure expect him to do it.

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It certainly seems like the record is there waiting for him to break it, given his abilities as a time trialist and track cyclist. I don't have any doubt he'll crush it.

What will be interesting to see is if dudes like Cancellara or Martin eventually take a crack at it and whether or not they'll be able to hit whatever number Wiggo puts up.

What makes you say that?

Looking at purely wattage, Tony Martin is probably the only man out there who can best him in a TT scenario over that duration
Looking at the whole package when cycling on the track, Wiggins more than makes up for that deficit with track technique and experience on a fixed gear.

I think Tony Martin could beat Wiggins in an hour record attempt, but it would take a significant investment of track time beforehand.
Neither Ettix or Martin himself seem keen on him easing off on his road race program enough to make that happen.

Fair enough I can't speak for the next generation of TTers (Phinney perhaps, in time?) but Wiggins' talent, track experience, and available time mean that the stars have somewhat aligned for him to do well.

Let's not overlook Alex Dowsett who is taking on the hour in a couple of weeks, 2nd May at Manchester Velodrome. I'm gonna be in the track centre, really looking forward to it.

For those who don't know, Alex is a TT specialist who races for Movistar. He holds the UK 10 mile record at 17m20s (yikes), and has been British National TT Champ 3 years in a row. He won the Commonwealth Games individual TT last year, finishing ahead of such dignitaries as Geraint Thomas, David Millar, Michael Hepburn, Luke Durbridge and notably one Rohan Dennis. He even beat a certain Mr Wiggins into 2nd place to win the stage 8 individual TT at the Tour de Giro in 2013.

So what I'm saying is, he can pedal a push bike. He will be riding this;

Apologies, I totally forgot Dowsett.
Was sorry to hear about his collarbone a few months ago.

What kind of track experience does he have?

Not much in the way of a track career, but he was part of the BC Olympic Academy setup at Manchester and he's apparently done thousands and thousands of laps on that track. It's a good point.

By the way, while the hour record attempt will be interesting it is nowhere near the most interesting event of the year. ;-)

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Don't forget to attack!

That should be enough for him to be able to stick to a line and measure his effort well on a fixed gear from feel.

The second point is the crux of it IMO

Looking at purely wattage, Tony Martin is probably the only man out there who can best him in a TT scenario over that duration

The problem is if Wiggins doesn't make 54km. I think the record will be around 55km eventually. Maybe more.

Riders need a few attempts to hit their best. Obree's best was ~2.5km faster than his first attempt. Boardman more than 4km (with better equipment), and Rominger nearly 1.5km only 2 weeks later. And none of these guys were at altitude either, which I think will show a significant benefit.

Why do you think it is tough to measure effort on a fixed gear from feel? Many are able to do this outdoor with varying grade and wind. Surely that would be tougher?

And Wiggins has a lot of track experience.

I'm going with 450 +/- 5 W.

Amen. I signed on just to comment to this effect. Then again, most folk here seem to find Ironmans exciting. Blah.

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I wonder what his weight will be at? He put on weight for Paris-Roubaix, He is around 77Kg if my memory serves me correct. So his FTP would be 5.8ish? In the tour I remember he was climbing near 6.4 so this would make sense.

Sounds like a very good prediction. What speed will that net?

In fairness, I did say "measure effort well".

For example, I doubt that there are many out there who can tell quickly if they are doing 250W vs 270W without external feedback.
He would only have to overcook in the first 10-15 mins by 5% (20-25W, entirely possible with the atmosphere etc) and he would pay heavily for it in the second half.

Plus, the bends on the track really force you into your bike and a small surge is required to maintain speed as you enter the straight again.
All things that take lots of practice.


And re: your comment that the record will end up at around 55km, I'm not sure what you've based this on.
Just because we have seen those types of distances before, with blood doped riders and/or equipment that is now illegal, doesn't mean that we will see them again with clean riders on current track bikes.
If Wiggins goes 53-54km then I think that it's more likely a comment on just how good you need to be to go 54km+ under the current rules. We will have to re-evaluate just how "soft" the current record really is.
IMO, we are already at the point end of what we will see. I can perhaps see 54km being done by the right rider on the right day, but 55k seems too much under the current limitations.

I take your point re: Wiggins potentially needing subsequent attempts to maximise his potential. I think it would be a good move for him to have another go at it rather than walk away, as it will be in line with the early stages of his Olympic prep

track riders get feedback every lap on their pacing, so it isn't hard to pace 'decently'.

If you have seen some of the pace graphs of recent attempts, it looks like everyone is messing up pretty bad, but you have to consider the Y axis scale on those, they are all in a pretty narrow window, except for bobridge who really did screw up pretty bad.

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I agree with all of the above.

But wouldn't you agree that these variations of ~1sec/lap could easily be the difference between somebody like Wiggins merely setting a new record, and setting down a marker that will really last?
And would you agree that it takes a huge amount of experience on the track for a person to hone their internal feedback to this level during something like an hour record attempt?
Hell, Bobridge is a world record holder on the boards and even he managed to overcook it.