Is Lionel about to make the same mistake by assuming that "1%" faster will win him the race THIS year //

Well 1% faster is just about 5 minutes, which puts him under 8 hours, I would say that would win this year, even bet on it....Do you think the first ever sub 8 would not be the winner??If he was trying to win last years race he would only have to go .5% faster, so it appears he is planning to win THIS years race after all... (-;

Even if he does a move for move copy of last years race but does not surge on the bike he will win as he will be able to run so much better on the 2nd half of the marathon.

The question is can he keep the monkey in the box.

I don’t take his “1%” comment as literally as you do anymore than I did by high school coach telling me to give 150%. That is why I used quotes.

And how could you take this literally. What the hell does 1% better nutrition mean? I get th motto/motivation and it’s a good 365-day training/motivation strategy just not necessarily a good race day strategy.

That is my entire point. You can’t assume that at all!!! That is based on the assumption that every thing else in the race is exactly the same. If he does that and does win then shame on the other competitors for poor race strategy.

I sure hope no one else has thought of getting 1% better across the board.

Not to be too much of a smart ass but stuff like this is bullshit. You do the work, the best work you can. Then you make the best decisions during the race that set you up the best for the best marathon that you can run on that day. The chips fall where they fall.

There are 1000s of calculations that go into what happens in a LC race, win or lose. Often some of those will cause you to win or lose even if you're 1% better than anyone else.

There are so many calculations that if I started listed them right now I may be finished by the time the winner crosses the line in 2019.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
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I will paraphrase Kienle..."You can have all the plans in the world but on race day it doesn't matter you have to be able to read the race"...so yeah I get Lionel improve and you improve your chances of winning...but everyone else is doing that too...so I will stick to what Kienle says..after all if he doesn't win I am preparing myself for the "let's throw everything out the window and start all over again" thing...love Lionel but that part makes me crazy in the head when I see him say stuff like that

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"see the world as it is not as you want it to be"

First ever, yes, second ever maybe not.

I agree. I think we all know that. Its like corporate speak for an athlete.

.[/quote] You do the work, the best work you can. Then you make the best decisions during the race that set you up the best for the best marathon that you can run on that day. The chips fall where they fall.[/quote]
I know you are a coach--and a probably a good one. This is probably the best strategy for an AGer. It is also probably the best strategy for the fastest athlete on the course. For them, if they race their race and have a good smart race, it doesn't make a lick of difference what everyone else does, they will win the race. But, there is only one of them on the course every race. I have enough racing experience in and outside of triathlon to know that. Sometimes I was the faster racer and just raced my race and could care less that there was someone else there racing me because I knew if I took care of business, I would win.

For every other pro that wants to win, I couldn't disagree with you more. If you want to have your "fastest" day, then maybe you strategy is the safest. If you want to win, then you have to do something different. Take a chance. When I wasn't the fastest competitor, I have tried this--you may have an epic blow up. But, you may have an epic career day and win or at least change the dynamics of the entire race and force the hand of the fastest racer. That is what Macca did. And it paid off at least on that day.

I agree this isn't another LS thread, and I think it is a good one!

From my swim background: coaches would talk about relay strategies when the season would get near the end. Put the fastest guy last, first? In the end it is fun to talk about but not really that important. The team with the fastest 4 guys wins. *ALMOST* The US men won in '08 because Bernard swam on the lane line, Lezak didn't panic, and Bernard went out just a little bit too hard. Ironically: I truly believe France would have won the relay IF they had dove in even. But the key to this: the less talented team ONLY wins if the more talented makes a mistake.

In triathlon: the fittest guy always wins. *ALMOST*

The fittest athlete is Gomez. (I say that with 90% confidence). What scenario could unfold that causes Gomez to make a mistake?

I don’t take his “1%” comment as literally as you do anymore than I did by high school coach telling me to give 150%. That is why I used quotes. //

Ha, I didn't take it literally, I suppose my sarcasm was lost on some? And of course Lionel doesnt take it literally either, it is just a number to throw out there to reflect that he has been working a little bit on everything associated with winning this race. Of course the race may or may not play out like last year, or the many years before, but one thing for certain, you will have to win it on the run, and you can lose it in the swim. Those 2 things remain constant..

Or if the slower team/athlete forces them to make a mistake. Again, see Macca. Obviously many other examples in sports.

Heck, I could see Starky and Wurf forcing Sanders into a mistake tomorrow. I will be surprised if Starky is not the first to T2; he will fail epically on the run hut he will blow up doing it!! He said as much in his interview. Will Sanders panic....again in response to that? Or will he hold back too much to not panic allowing Gomez to stay near him on the bike?

Agreed

My prediction... Lionel exits the water 2-3min behind the pack, pushes the bike hard and finish 1st with 7-8min advantage, he's out of juice during the run at mile 15 and finish 5th-6th

Agreed. It'll depend on who Lionel starts the bike with, and what he decides about catching those in front. I think he or anybody else lets Starky ride away, knowing the blow up that's coming. I'd love to see Wurf and/or Sebi come out of the swim ahead of Lionel, forcing him to make a decision.

I can't wait for tomorrow. With Starky back, the Lionel questions, Gomez finally racing, etc. On the women's side, while I don't think 1st is in doubt, I'm excited to see how close Charles can get, debuts from True and Helle, etc.

The 1% approach was not his strategy 2-3 weeks ago. He discussed this on the Talbot video that was the second part of his big training day. He had said that up till then he changed everything & then realized at the last moment (after Mt Tremblant) that he needed to change little to nothing.

The bipolar nature of this beast is very intruguing. I predict he will blow up at some point during Kona, you don’t make critical changes (like bike size) 1 month out from an IM....time to get a coach, as if it hasn’t been said a million times before.

I think Lionel will win. Unless he crashes on the bike or has a mechanical

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Well done

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I should pay more attention to Lionel. Loved this quote:

"Lionel: First off, Ironman pain is self-inflicted. Is it really that painful if you bring yourself to it? I think a lot of the times you get beat down in your mind. You’re thinking these negative things. Holy crap it is HOT out here! That feeling is all tucked away but it is going to come out at Mile 20 of the run.

Sound mind, able body. This is a fairly affluent sport. We practice it in the most beautiful places in the world. How can we talk about this being painful? It’s fun. It’s a very extreme sensation. That’s part of the fun of it. It’s screaming at you. What is it really?"

Really? By the time I got to the end of the interview, I was thinking this guy reminds me of Jerry Jones....incessant, incoherent rambling. I like Lionel but that was a tough read at the end.

??

He's describing why "pain" in the context of pushing your physical limits is "fun". I thought he was pretty eloquent.

Sorry, this was very Billy Madison to me...

It’s the body’s preservation mechanism. It doesn’t want to go beyond what it is capable of. Currently. But it can and always will have that capacity. It’s got a check valve at maybe 10 percent less than what you are actually capable of. And if you know this and you experience it, you can go much deeper into that sensation. That’s the fun part. That’s what we are doing this for. That sensation.

ST: Is there love in the pain?

Lionel: So do I love pain? Do I love suffering? Absolutely not. I don’t love any of those things. But I certainly love what I experienced out there on Mile 20. It’s taken me six months to wrap my head around suffering to the capacity that I suffered last year. I had memory loss from the second half of that run, delving so deep into myself. But here I am. I’m fine. I was fine the next day. I was eating a bag of chips poolside. No problem. What happened to me, it’s just a safety mechanism. You can go far, far beyond that.”

I think Lionel will DNF or DNS, but he'll win next year (Kona 2019). He's got the fire, and the talent, but he needs a lot of stars to align to beat the other 10 guys capable of winning this thing.

Well let's think about this. He changed a lot of stuff...and it took him a whole season to realize he screwed up and the focus since Mont Tremblant has been to perfect the things that went well. Back to the Medium frame etc.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

LOL.. He beat all but 1 guy last year. I don't think he needs that many stars to align!