He has no chance of winning either.

Let the flames begin.

IMO he is going to say it's time to pass the torch and focus on IM. He's not going to be able to hold the ITU pace at the top with Luis and the new wave of athletes in ITU. It will take Johnny a massive effort solo--to be top 3. The 1-2 punch won't be there for Brownlees. Ali has nothing to prove anyhow, not going will not tarnish his legacy in any way. Until someone comes up with a 3 straight gold streak in the Olympics, he will be the greatest Olympian in triathlon history. I wonder how Whitfield would have done medal wise had he not crashed.

Hard to know if Simon would have factored into the medals. It was sucky way to go out for sure. 2002--->2008 was already a wide gap between his medals. If Simon was good enough to slot in between Alistair, Gomez and Johnny that would have been amazing, but we'll never know. Does AB not have a good chance at the team medal at tokyo?

He's got a very good chance, but an interesting question would be who does he replace in the team Alex Yee or his brother if he's going to get a slot??

I happen to agree with your point but the question is what would be the more impressive achievement and what does he have the better chance of winning at this point?

I guess he would be 3rd or 4th choice. The issue with the team relay is that it truly is about maxing out your speed for 18 mins, and what in the last year AB's kinda been doing the opposite of that with the IM go.

So there's other guys in GB specifically trained up for that event and with every month that's just another training block away from it for AB.

ETA: Keep in mind GB has likely a serious medal contending team.....they aren't going to take a chance on a half committed ITU athlete. AB could justify taking the 3rd spot if GB has 3 spots in the men's race, but doubtful he's a serious pick for the MTR. Specificity absolutely matters at the pointy end of the sport.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

GB having 3 males in the race is certainly not a definite, in fact at this stage they only have 1 in the top 30 and there is some tough competition in that 25th-35th ranking, all gunning for the magic top 30. Ali making the team at all surely is reliant on the 3 spots, he wouldn't be my pick for a relay team if they only have 2 qualified.

“I have a few days before I go home so I will be exploring the area and I am going to Margaret River and drink red wine and eat some steak. I go to Bahrain next weekend but I won’t be racing, and then it is home for Christmas. When the new year rolls around I will focus on trying to race the World Series as well as I can, with an eye on Tokyo.”

So there you have it, however well he adapts back at ITU he'll make his mind up, Ali's main issue since Rio was injuries (which he seems to have got over recently) maybe he can slot back in were he left off with a few months training??

Bermuda 2nd race in April 19th that course has his name wrote all over it to pick up maximum points?

I am in thr UK and a fan of Mr A Brownlee

I think it is unlikely he will win either next year ,

 
Well lets get this out the way.

With a straight choice, no one would choose a Kona title over an Olympic Gold.

If he thinks for a second that he has a chance to get gold then that's what his focus will be 100%

Looks to me like his focus is now more on IM.

To me that says he has already made his mind up. Maybe he feels he has lost that small bit of speed that you need to be an Olympic medal winner.

He is more than capable of winning Kona and in fact gaining multiple titles over the next 5 years.

Vincent Luis with the Gold.

If AB sits in on the bike more then he has a real chance in Kona. We will see who shows up healthy.

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http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

I'm English and too think Luis must be fave providing he's fit (nothing to suggest he won't be).
The alternative thought for Ali - he goes as mega-domestique for Jonny as he can turn himself inside out on the swim and bike to set it up for his Bro (in particular breaking the race dynamics up so it doesn't become a swim -wheelsuck - best-runner-wins race.

Kona easily.
Olympics easily.

The oddly weird question may be can JB actually hold a pace to what AB would want to hold these days? JB hasn’t exactly been whipping the front pack into shape post AB.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Vincent Luis one of "the new wave of athletes in ITU"?? He is only one year younger than Alistair, and is a year older than Jonny!!!

The new wave are people like Iden, who surely must be a favourite.

I doubt Alistair can win in Toyko, but largely because the bike course is just not challenging enough.

I actually think Ali would make the perfect domestique for Alex Yee, not so sure Jonny needs one (granted the extra firepower in that front bike pack will be needed) but I bet British Triathlon would rather have him pilot Yee up to that front pack, I don't think there's a chance Ali would agree to that though.

Luis off this year is probably the favourite, but I think the dynamics will change again next year (especially if Ali is coming back)

I think he’ll miss both. Vincent Louis will beat him at Tokyo. Then he won’t win Kona due to too much focus on training for Tokyo while others focus on Kona

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Matt

I mean AB really can do no wrong. I think I’m more shocked that a guy of that intensity and perfection *seemingly* is going back and forth so much. But then again in a podcast, Macca said that AB said he could certainly train up for both in the same time frame and race very well. Macca adamantly disagreed and thought you would then take away from both.

Bermuda certainly is a great course for him to go put it on the boys. It doesn’t really mean much for olympics however as the course as tactics will be just so different.


Points isn’t AB’s issue. He likely won’t race enough to jump into top 30 himself, and he’s already well within the cut line to be “eligible”.


Hell AB’s best chance at making olympics like Chris talks about likely would improve if he went into a full time domestique role for GB until May to get 3 male slots. Race for the top 3 guys to get them the spots and then take the 3rd spot.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Kona - Not 2020.
Olympic gold medal - Yes (but it will be in the relay alongside his brother and two of the numerous excellent GB ladies (probably T-B & Learmonth).

Hello. AB has been out from the ITU circuit for almost 3 years... yes, he won a sprint wcup in cagliari and the eurochamps (no real competition though) at the beginning of this year...
Being objective, he should focus 100% in ITU from now on and that does not guarantee even a podium. He's lost run speed...and the men's field is wide...I also doubt Gomez can podium even I am a spaniard.. so, IMO, he should focus in IM...if he tries Tokyo, it is very likely that he will not Podium there neither in Kona...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

My point about Bermuda is it's a race for him to aim for and if he wins that, it'll give him the perfect platform and confidence for him to launch an Olympic campaign from.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Ali hasn't had a year like he's just had injury free for as long as I can remember (let's just assume that has nothing to do with him training mainly for LC rather than SC) if he can stay injury free there's nothing to say we can't get the old Ali back for Tokyo (Gomez has actually just done what Ali will be doing and did far better than expected and is still very competitive!)

If you have neither, maybe. But when you've already got 2 golds. Legacy can be important. When all the "best ever" conversations kick up the list of names almost invariably involves guys who had periods of dominance at both short course and long course. Though I certainly respect guys like Simon Whitfield who said "eff that" to long course.

Concur. But he has a better chance of top 10 at Kona.

Oh I’m all in on AB going to Tokyo. But not for him winning, but because no one else on GB is medal worthy. So go for broke w AB vs a “safe” 18th place etc. But I think he has to go as 3rd member I don’t see him being the strongest mtr athletes. I don’t think he has the goods to waste a medal favorite with the athletes GB has in the relay. Most especially for a guy working on marathon speed now in his training.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II