My prediction is that the date for the next running of the Ironman World Championships will be on the second weekend of October 2021...

I agree

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Held over 2 days (even as a 1 time deal)

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2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

The loss of qualifying events won’t matter. If the health authorities say yes, they will do it. They just will open the floodgates and sell slots, give them to AWA ranked people, allow Legacy athletes to move up their time table, etc.

And Slots by VR. How much would it suck doing a 2.4 mile treadmill run into a 112 mile trainer ride into a 26.2 mile treadmill run? I think you might deserve a spot completing that.

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It's October. Nobody knows what things will be like in two weeks. Speculate later.

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What could be kind of cool if this thing drags out for months, is to go back to the original date in February, 21'. Then they could get back on schedule in Oct of 2021, doing two races in a calendar year, just like they did in 1982. That way they dont miss anything as far as numbers, and maybe we get some of that classic February swell too!!

And filling the race is no problem, that has been discussed in many threads already. Tons of alternatives, and if they do a Feb race, then a lot of the actual qualifiers would have happened too. Seems like a lot of races are punting their schedule to October/November, so perfect for a February Kona.

Since we're speculating here, will Kona become easier to qualify for if we go into a serious recession/depression? I mean you can do a local Ironman in your backyard, but traveling to Hawaii and dropping 10k for the race/experience might be a little tougher if you're out of a job.

What do you guys think?

I was thinking the same about 70.3 worlds in NZ. But it is probably even more the case with Kona

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With the $aus now 58c to the us it makes for an incredible expensive trip that is for sure to impact us down under and you are right, a $1000 race entry and $1500 accom plus all costs associated with training means those people in the terrible situation of being without employment or financial situation has been impacted may be holding off on IM.

I'd think it would be easier to qualify this year, pending whichever qualifiers are ago, if only because people wont want to travel yet.

Next year, good luck at any roll downs.

I get the hesitancy on travel and possible money/job issues this year, but if things go ahead for Kona, I think qualification will be the same. The athletes shooting for those spots are likely time/$$ rich. Also, they'll be training (most of them) like maniacs right now indoors. Probably ready to put down serious bike times. Unless you are in Spain/Italy, you can still run. Swimming might be an issue, but the potential qualifiers can make up the time on the bike/run (which they'll be super strong after this period).

I predict that there will be two championships in 2021 - April and October. It will be 1982 all over again!!

Dave Scott and Scott Tinley each won one with the other coming in second and Jeff Tinley came in 3rd both times!!

As an Aussie I would love to be apart of an April race with the Europeans and North Americans having to train through winter the Aussies would have the upper hand. It is not easy going a Kona prep, not only is it winter, but you don't have many people to train with like you would building up for a normal Aussie IM event.

You can think that if you want.
Train all winter low stress and less fatigue on the body. I have did fine with an April race. I would sure keep me more motivated and focused during the winter months for sure. Bring it on!!

Good to hear, hopefully you make it so you can give it a crack!

Bahahahaha!!! “Hopefully you will make it”.

I'd think the ocean might be a bit rough in December. Plus it's Christmas rush. And most of the competition lives in areas that would be under snow already.
It will happen in October with some wacky lottery, or it won't happen at all in 2021.

So here is a the latest news from Ironman Oz..The rescheduled Sept 13th 2020 race has spots for Kona 2021...

*IRONMAN and IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship Qualification Slots**
A huge thank-you for your patience while we have been working behind the scenes on the allocation of IRONMAN and IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship qualifying slots based on the new race dates.
We are pleased to confirm that IRONMAN Australia 2020, which now takes place on 13 September 2020, has been allocated 40 slots to the 2021 IRONMAN World Championship, held in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii on 9 October 2021.
And, that IRONMAN 70.3 Port Macquarie 2020, which now takes place on 13 September 2020, has been allocated 80 slots to the 2020 IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship, held in Taupō, New Zealand on 28 – 29 November 2020.

Just a speculation.
As 2020 Kona qualifier, I'm ok with that option:

No 2020 event. All 2020 guys will be transferred to 2021.
2021 will be 2-day event. Women start on Sat and Men on Sun.

I was last year in Hawaii and i can say there are a lot of Hawaiians who are happy when the event is over and these Ironmans are gone. That said, I do not know whether it is that easy to organize a second race in the same year.
Anyway, the new owner of WCT has a challenge...

With a local economy heavily dependent on tourism, I am guessing that this year, Hawaiians will welcome visitors coming for pretty much any reason.

I’m not sure this tells us anything about the viability of 2020 Kona. Ironman Wisconsin is that same weekend in Sept and the Kona slots are always for the following season. To me the allocations from IM Aussie are consistent with what is normally done in that time of year.

People keep saying this. But this won't happen.

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