Kona 2020s Predictions

abundant_pasta_

Oct 13, 19 18:50

Post #1 of 40 (6475 views)

Okay, so following all this Kona hype of the past week, I think it would be an interesting proposition to look at the next 'wave' of athletes that will be moving up to the full distance. Who from the ITU ranks will move up after Tokyo and make an impact in the next 5-10 years? What young guns are going to take the reins once this group moves on?

Blummenfelt & Iden are good picks. The Norwegians seem to do well at all distances, and already do a ton of volume.
Jonny Brownlee? I heard rumors that he was considering moving up after Tokyo.
Richard Murray - has the engine on the bike to do it.
Javi? May be good for a year or two at Kona, but he's getting up there in years.
Kanute - same as Richard Murray.

Katie Zafares - all around great athlete.
The Brits (Holland, Learmonth, GTB)? One of them, surely.
Flora? Not sure if she'll move up or not.

What about current long course athletes that are going to come into their prime soon? Ali Brownlee, etc.

Who will win Kona 2025?

Matt Guenter

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 13, 19 20:44

Post #2 of 40 (6395 views)

Given the training volume the Norwegians do I imagine they would transition well to long course if they decide to go that route. Especially since they are stronger in the run and bike which tends to be more important than the swim at the ironman distance

Matt

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 13, 19 20:58

Post #3 of 40 (6370 views)

Richard Murray got crushed in Samorin Challenge Champs 70.3 on the bike. He’s got a ways to go and said afterwards he didn’t enjoy it.

Kanute has the goods on the bike

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 13, 19 21:37

Post #4 of 40 (6344 views)

Katie and Jess Learmonth will do very well. It'd guess GTB is too young and will do another olympic cycle. Holland can't ride a bike.
Flora, I see as more a 70.3 athlete. I could be wrong.

The Norwegians are all super young. They will be racing ITU through 2024. That's my guess.

Jonny is going to crush 70.3. But he won't podium at IM worlds.
Gomez. Nothing would surprise me. Fast or slow.
Kanute will have trouble with the long run.

Wait a few years for Taylor Knibb. She's going to crush long course.
Tony Smorg is still racing ITU, but if he switches, he will excel at long course.

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 13, 19 22:27

Post #5 of 40 (6279 views)

Iden looked unstoppable at 70.3 champs,
itu body type can handle heat too as shown in bahrain

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 16, 19 8:24

Post #6 of 40 (6002 views)

Rudy Von Berg should be added to this list of pros going to do well at Kona.

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 1:38

Post #7 of 40 (5749 views)

Marten van Riel told me he's going to try to qualify for the Taupo 70.3WC in Xiamen, that's his main goal after Tokyo. He also wants to have a dig at LC, with his swim and bike he could be up there as well. He said he's the only one in the Filiol training group that has an interest in going longer.

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 6:31

Post #8 of 40 (5590 views)

g_tri wrote:

Okay, so following all this Kona hype of the past week, I think it would be an interesting proposition to look at the next 'wave' of athletes that will be moving up to the full distance. Who from the ITU ranks will move up after Tokyo and make an impact in the next 5-10 years? What young guns are going to take the reins once this group moves on?

Blummenfelt & Iden are good picks. The Norwegians seem to do well at all distances, and already do a ton of volume.
Jonny Brownlee? I heard rumors that he was considering moving up after Tokyo.
Richard Murray - has the engine on the bike to do it.
Javi? May be good for a year or two at Kona, but he's getting up there in years.
Kanute - same as Richard Murray.

Katie Zafares - all around great athlete.
The Brits (Holland, Learmonth, GTB)? One of them, surely.
Flora? Not sure if she'll move up or not.

What about current long course athletes that are going to come into their prime soon? Ali Brownlee, etc.

Who will win Kona 2025?

Funny i heard jonny wasn,t moving up !

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 6:35

Post #9 of 40 (5582 views)

Frodo makes Ali cry on the Queen K

http://www.TriScottsdale.org

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 7:26

Post #10 of 40 (5509 views)

The Ali can't do well in the heat thing was bogus. Johnny however, I would agree with.

I think Flora is the only one you listed who clearly expressed interest in moving up after Tokyo but I don't follow the brits enough to tell. Of the 3 you named, I would bet more on Learmonth moving up after Tokyo, GTB is only 25 so she'll stick around for Paris unless she loses out to a new wave of speed.

I still don't understand why Gomez is even attempting Tokyo.

I wonder about the Norwegians, without the federation team support, would they want to move up or just keep trucking ITU until the new generation sweeps them out?

Someone raises a very interesting prospect about New Zealand, since it is way late in the season, would one think that the ITU folks will go for it for funsies? I hope so, but then I would also have to pray that the current IM stars do the same but my bet is that those who do well at Kona will skip it.

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [Sbernardi] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 7:39

Post #11 of 40 (5492 views)

I’ll go on record as saying opposite. I think this was it for Frodo, and now he’s going to go in cruise mode rest of his career, especially being 39 next year.

Sure he’ll show up, and have great swim, a I think he will just struggle last part of run.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 7:45

Post #12 of 40 (5478 views)

B_Doughtie wrote:

I’ll go on record as saying opposite. I think this was it for Frodo, and now he’s going to go in cruise mode rest of his career, especially being 39 next year.

Sure he’ll show up, and have great swim, a I think he will just struggle last part of run.

TO just finished second (to arguably the GOAT) at age 39.

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [japarker24] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 7:56

Post #13 of 40 (5451 views)

Sure he’s also never won it 3 times, never won the Olympics and doesn’t have the career Frodo does.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 7:59

Post #14 of 40 (5443 views)

I agree Frodo will start ramping it down now. Look at history of guys same age. Crowie a good example.

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [hadukla] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 8:09

Post #15 of 40 (5422 views)

hadukla wrote:

The Ali can't do well in the heat thing was bogus.......

Hmmmm.....
IM Cork 2019 2:51 marathon. Not hot/humid
IM Kona 2019 3:13 marathon. Hot/humid

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 8:24

Post #16 of 40 (5399 views)

Holly Lawrence suggested on Instagram she may go for Kona next year (she seems quite the prankster though so large pinch of salt required)

Don't see many other current ITU guys stepping up until after Tokyo - Kona 2021 could look very different. Blumenfelt will be one, but I think Jonny B could stick to 70.3 for a year or two.

Be interested to see if Alex Yee was a lot more competetive at longer distances - ITU seems to be too short for him to play to his strength (uber-runner)

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [japarker24] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 8:46

Post #17 of 40 (5371 views)

japarker24 wrote:

hadukla wrote:

The Ali can't do well in the heat thing was bogus.......

Hmmmm.....
IM Cork 2019 2:51 marathon. Not hot/humid
IM Kona 2019 3:13 marathon. Hot/humid

Sorry, should have pre-qualified that as the notion he couldn't handle the heat from ITU days. Although I think his issue this year was over biking, it is certainly arguable it was heat. Hopefully we'll find out next year

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 8:53

Post #18 of 40 (5349 views)

g_tri wrote:

Okay, so following all this Kona hype of the past week, I think it would be an interesting proposition to look at the next 'wave' of athletes that will be moving up to the full distance. Who from the ITU ranks will move up after Tokyo and make an impact in the next 5-10 years? What young guns are going to take the reins once this group moves on?

Blummenfelt & Iden are good picks. The Norwegians seem to do well at all distances, and already do a ton of volume.
Jonny Brownlee? I heard rumors that he was considering moving up after Tokyo.
Richard Murray - has the engine on the bike to do it.
Javi? May be good for a year or two at Kona, but he's getting up there in years.
Kanute - same as Richard Murray.

Katie Zafares - all around great athlete.
The Brits (Holland, Learmonth, GTB)? One of them, surely.
Flora? Not sure if she'll move up or not.

What about current long course athletes that are going to come into their prime soon? Ali Brownlee, etc.

Who will win Kona 2025?

Murray has specifically said he hates long distance and couldn't be paid to do it. Ashley Gentle on the women's side

Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 11:35

Post #19 of 40 (5206 views)

oprfcc wrote:

Kanute will have trouble with the long run.

This narrative is so lazy. Not true at all. In fact, the opposite is true. His mechanical efficiency improves with increases in distance. Look at how much closer he is in 70.3 to the top guys vs his history with 10K/5K. He would lose 3 mins to Mola/Brownlee/Gomez in a 10K in years past, (now he's improved, so it's down to 30-90 secs), but at 70.3 Worlds in 2018, runs within 4 mins of Gomez, and was 6 mins the year before. This past worlds in Nice, he was ready to run 1:10, after a 1:12 last year. Gomez ran 1:10 this year. Tim O'Donnell's best time in a 70.3 run was 2010 in 1:12:43. He held off some damn good runners behind him last weekend.

If you think Kanute won't improve with a focus on long course, and if you haven't been paying attention to see he's dramatically improved, then you're just promoting a lazy narrative with this, not based on facts or really understanding the demands of competition.

Jim Vance
http://TodaysPlan.com.au (Disclosure: I am contracted with Today's Plan)
http://www.CoachVance.com/
Twitter @jimvance

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 11:51

Post #20 of 40 (5157 views)

"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [JimVance] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 11:53

Post #21 of 40 (5153 views)

<mic drop>

I agree and look forward to Kanute focusing year long on LC, hopefully after Tokyo. I met him at 2018 TX 70.3, really a friendly guy.

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [JimVance] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 18:06

Post #22 of 40 (5024 views)

Hi Jim.
This is a thread about 2020 Kona contenders (and beyond)
Glad you were able to skim through my post that referenced 13 athletes; and find a reason to talk about yourself. Congrats.

Fun fact. One of us coached a beginner triathlete for 11 years and then that athlete made the podium (2nd) at IM world championships. Wow!
The other one of us coached a guy for less than a year to a podium (2nd) at 70.3 worlds. This athlete had already made the lead bike pack at the Olympics and was 10 years into racing triathlon. But don't worry. This new coach has all the tricks that really helped this athlete turn the corner to keep showing up for a 4th and then 10th in the world. Wow!

Sorry for being lazy!
Kanute is a hard working guy and a great racer. I'm sure he'll figure out his Ironman run.

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 20:15

Post #23 of 40 (4964 views)

oprfcc wrote:

Hi Jim.
This is a thread about 2020 Kona contenders (and beyond)
Glad you were able to skim through my post that referenced 13 athletes; and find a reason to talk about yourself. Congrats.

Fun fact. One of us coached a beginner triathlete for 11 years and then that athlete made the podium (2nd) at IM world championships. Wow!
The other one of us coached a guy for less than a year to a podium (2nd) at 70.3 worlds. This athlete had already made the lead bike pack at the Olympics and was 10 years into racing triathlon. But don't worry. This new coach has all the tricks that really helped this athlete turn the corner to keep showing up for a 4th and then 10th in the world. Wow!

Sorry for being lazy!
Kanute is a hard working guy and a great racer. I'm sure he'll figure out his Ironman run.

I am sure that beginner triathlete had no talent, and the 2nd place was all because of you and your development from ground zero, unlike Kanute. Well done. Too bad you anonymously post so you can't get all the credit you deserve.

The narrative is what I was replying to, and I think that was made clear.

Jim Vance
http://TodaysPlan.com.au (Disclosure: I am contracted with Today's Plan)
http://www.CoachVance.com/
Twitter @jimvance

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [g_tri] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 23:15

Post #24 of 40 (4847 views)

2022 Tim O will come second again.

Rhymenocerus wrote:

I think everyone should consult ST before they do anything.

Re: Kona 2020s Predictions [hadukla] [ In reply to ]

Oct 17, 19 23:52

Post #25 of 40 (4820 views)

hadukla wrote:

japarker24 wrote:

hadukla wrote:

The Ali can't do well in the heat thing was bogus.......

Hmmmm.....
IM Cork 2019 2:51 marathon. Not hot/humid
IM Kona 2019 3:13 marathon. Hot/humid

Sorry, should have pre-qualified that as the notion he couldn't handle the heat from ITU days. Although I think his issue this year was over biking, it is certainly arguable it was heat. Hopefully we'll find out next year

I would say he definitely over-biked, he had 5th fastest bike split with a flat. And then he got off the bike and was running at 3.30 pace, a few kms in he was the fastest runner out there. It seems it was a combination of poor strategy, Kona inexperience and bad luck (flat tyre). And I think the heat played a factor.

How long was he riding on a semi-flat for?

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