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Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes
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Just for grins and giggles- post “over” or “under” on Katie Ledecky in the 1650 at NCAA’s
Special Noestradomus acredidation for closet to predict actual time (finals)

I am going Under, 14:54.18
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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15:01 .01
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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That's SCY right?

15:14 and she wins by at least 15 seconds.

'It never gets easier, you just get crazier.'
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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Und er - 14:57.98
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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Over.....but only because her attention has been divided a bit with dabbling in the IM and maintaining sprint speed for relays.
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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I'm going to go over... just barely... for the reasons mentioned above and also, if I recall correctly, she doesn't consider herself to be a great SCY swimmer (she doesn't think much of her turns).

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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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I'm going to go with a not fully tapered time on this one, think it is just too big a slam dunk in a race where you lap the field.

15;06.38
Last edited by: monty: Mar 11, 18 9:24
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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15:12.05

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Dec 1, 17 9:57
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Why wouldn't she be tapered? And for Ledecky, what does a taper really mean? She's broken world and American records without being "tapered."

I think she'll go all-in for this meet, and why not? Her meet prep may be more focused on the shorter races, especially where she adds depth to the relays, but that doesn't mean she won't be ready for a strong mile. In fact, since it's obvious she has the "base" to swim the mile, maybe a sprint focus for those relays will mean she'll have sharper and faster turns, and a stronger kick. The mile will be her first event on Saturday evening, unless she swims a leg on the prelims 4 x 100 FrR, but that will be more of a shake-out, get-the-lead-out swim. She's done well with a busy schedule before, and it's obvious she's pretty motivated.

I say under 15:00. 14:58.xx.
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [georged] [ In reply to ]
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more like 30. she will lap everyone

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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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14:58.50


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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Guessing her seed time is from last year?

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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [140triguy] [ In reply to ]
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140triguy wrote:
Why wouldn't she be tapered? And for Ledecky, what does a taper really mean? She's broken world and American records without being "tapered."

I think she'll go all-in for this meet, and why not? Her meet prep may be more focused on the shorter races, especially where she adds depth to the relays, but that doesn't mean she won't be ready for a strong mile. In fact, since it's obvious she has the "base" to swim the mile, maybe a sprint focus for those relays will mean she'll have sharper and faster turns, and a stronger kick. The mile will be her first event on Saturday evening, unless she swims a leg on the prelims 4 x 100 FrR, but that will be more of a shake-out, get-the-lead-out swim. She's done well with a busy schedule before, and it's obvious she's pretty motivated.

I say under 15:00. 14:58.xx.

In regards to a “ busy” schedule, the NCAA limits all swimmers to 4 events, either 3 individual + 1 relay, or 2 individual + 2 relays. Most of the swimmers that can legitimately win 3 events, like Ledecky, go 3 + 1, as that nets the most points for the team. So, she won’t be swimming a bunch of relays, nobody will :-) She most likely will swim the 4 x 200 relay- which I believe is day 1. So her schedule would be day 1- 4 x 200 relay + 500 free, Day 2- 400 IM, Day 3- 1650.
Doubtful that fatigue will be an issue :-) 15 minutes on a 1650 is one of those barrier times, like a 3 hour marathon... Can’t see her not being psyched to go for it.
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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IntenseOne wrote:
140triguy wrote:
Why wouldn't she be tapered? And for Ledecky, what does a taper really mean? She's broken world and American records without being "tapered."

I think she'll go all-in for this meet, and why not? Her meet prep may be more focused on the shorter races, especially where she adds depth to the relays, but that doesn't mean she won't be ready for a strong mile. In fact, since it's obvious she has the "base" to swim the mile, maybe a sprint focus for those relays will mean she'll have sharper and faster turns, and a stronger kick. The mile will be her first event on Saturday evening, unless she swims a leg on the prelims 4 x 100 FrR, but that will be more of a shake-out, get-the-lead-out swim. She's done well with a busy schedule before, and it's obvious she's pretty motivated.

I say under 15:00. 14:58.xx.


In regards to a “ busy” schedule, the NCAA limits all swimmers to 4 events, either 3 individual + 1 relay, or 2 individual + 2 relays. Most of the swimmers that can legitimately win 3 events, like Ledecky, go 3 + 1, as that nets the most points for the team. So, she won’t be swimming a bunch of relays, nobody will :-) She most likely will swim the 4 x 200 relay- which I believe is day 1. So her schedule would be day 1- 4 x 200 relay + 500 free, Day 2- 400 IM, Day 3- 1650.
Doubtful that fatigue will be an issue :-) 15 minutes on a 1650 is one of those barrier times, like a 3 hour marathon... Can’t see her not being psyched to go for it.

I looked into the number of events a few weeks ago during the Dressel thread and IIRC, the event number limit was 7 events total so he could in theory swim all 5 relays and 2 indy events, or 4 relays and 3 indy events. I wouldn't bet $1000 on this but this is what i recall.

Also, not to split hairs too much but i think going sub-15 for 1650 would be more analogous to going sub-2:15, or perhaps even sub-2:10, for the women's mary. The 3 hr mary is way too slow to be analogous. Just a thought...:)


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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You have it right. 4 relay and three individuals or 5/2 for a total of 7 max.

Though I really only see her in one other relay / the 4 x 100 free.
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
You have it right. 4 relay and three individuals or 5/2 for a total of 7 max.

Though I really only see her in one other relay / the 4 x 100 free.


I dug through the NCAA D1 web site and finally found the following in the "2017-18 Pre-Championships Manual":

MAXIMUM NUMBER OF EVENTS
A student-athlete is permitted to compete in a maximum of seven events of which not more than three may be individual events. A student-athlete who swims more than the allowable number of individual or total events will be disqualified and prohibited from participating in the remainder of the meet at such time as they exceed the allowable limit.

Obv she'll swim the 500 and 1650 but do you think she'll really swim the 400 IM over the 200 free???


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
Last edited by: ericmulk: Mar 11, 18 20:14
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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No, max of 3 individual events.

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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [BrzilianTri] [ In reply to ]
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BrzilianTri wrote:
No, max of 3 individual events.

Ya, i finally found that and was editing my post when you posted yours. :)


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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Ledecky' schedule is pretty busy when we get right down to it:

Wednesday: 4 x 200 FrR
Thursday, AM: prelims, 500 free
Thursday, PM: finals, 500 free
Friday, AM: prelims 400 IM
Friday, PM: finals 400 IM
Saturday, PM: times finals 1650; finals 4 x 100 FrR

Also consider warm-up for each session, and that's lots of swimming.

BTW: seed times for the championships are from THIS season (September, 2017-Late February, 2018), only. In most USA Swimming meets, seed times can be used for swims up to 2 years before the meet. In some international meets, fastest times from the past two years can be used, even though if those times are faster than the official selection meet (USA Olympic Trials). This is because most nations don't have a Trials format as big as the USA, and some swimmers from smaller nations can use times from other meets if there are no Trials/selection meets for that nation. I personally saw a swimmer from Latvia qualify for the 2013 World Championships at a club meet in Oklahoma.
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [140triguy] [ In reply to ]
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True, that is a lot of swimming, with three tough events. Kinda disappointed she's not swimming the 200 free though, other than on the relay.


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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She didn’t enter the 200 free and opted for the 400 IM. No going back now.
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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Who else does stanford have in the 2free?


never mind, found the link. That seems like an odd decision for team points to have her swim the 4IM rather than the 2free. Stanford just has Simone in the 200 as the 1 seed, Stanfords next swimmer is seeded 11, but they're going in with 3 of the top 4 seeds in the 400IM, with an additional 12 seed and 20 seed.


Only rationale I can think of is that they think Simone will win the 200, but Ella / Brooke may not be able to beat Sydney Pickrem, so they want Ledecky in there?


http://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2018/02/28/swimdive-full-list.pdf

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Last edited by: JasoninHalifax: Mar 12, 18 6:07
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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JasoninHalifax wrote:
Who else does stanford have in the 2free?


never mind, found the link. That seems like an odd decision for team points to have her swim the 4IM rather than the 2free. Stanford just has Simone in the 200 as the 1 seed, Stanfords next swimmer is seeded 11, but they're going in with 3 of the top 4 seeds in the 400IM, with an additional 12 seed and 20 seed.


Only rationale I can think of is that they think Simone will win the 200, but Ella / Brooke may not be able to beat Sydney Pickrem, so they want Ledecky in there?


http://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2018/02/28/swimdive-full-list.pdf


Or maybe it's not a team-driven decision, but an athlete driven decision. Stanford would appear to have the luxury of sacrificing a few potential net points in order to make their most valuable athlete happy.
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [gary p] [ In reply to ]
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yes, stanford is going to win the meet by a landslide.

I don't think it is an "athlete" decision in the sense that KL demanded or even requested the 200 free. I think the mandate was we are the best team so we put each athlete in their best event. And in short course yards, KL is better in the 400 IM than 200 free.

(If I was going with a conspiracy/selfish angle I would say that KL is doing this is because her chances of winning the 400IM are significantly greater than 200 free and she wants to be the first swimmer to win 12 NCAA individual events. Of course doesn't that mean the 400 IM is her better event?).
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Re: Katie Ledecky over under on 15 minutes [140triguy] [ In reply to ]
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Saturday, PM: times finals 1650; finals 4 x 100 FrR //

I looked over the swimmers and teams and this is why I think maybe she is not going to drill the 1650 into oblivion. She did that at the games and choked(as far as she can choke) on the relay, having the slowest split and slower than would have been expected of her. There are some womens teams with a lot of great sprinters in this meet, so this 4x100 relay is going to be a barn burner. It looks like to me that she will have to swim her best sprint for the team to have a chance. She will be lapping the field in the 1650, so really it could be a good warm up, or it could take a few tenths again like it did at the olympics...


Not drilling the 1650 is her best chance at a gold in the relay(and probably all golds for the meet), but not sure if she learned anything from this last time this scenario came around..Some people just swim like dogs, all out(considering distance) with no regard to what comes next..
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