So there was a recent thread on the stats of Kona qualifiers. You can find it here. Within that thread was a blog post by Alan Couzens, who outlines some of the stats that you are looking for.

If you are concerned about weight, you can play around with best bike split and see how much your weight impacts your cycling time- I have done this, and the answer is not much- I looked at a weight loss of 5lbs, and it changed my bike split by ~2 minutes on the ironman I am planning on doing.

As for your run, most places I have seen suggest that for every pound you lose, you will run about 1-2 seconds per mile.

---

http://www.savagesentiments.blogspot.com/
http://www.tricoachmartin.com/
https://www.facebook.com/teameverymanjack

that is a faster 10k than i have and a higher ftp than i have, and i am as fast or faster than you. 10:16 last year. 190 lbs and 6 foot 3 i definitely need to loose 20 pounds. you probably do need to loose weight but I would guess you need more hours and more years of hours too.

How old are you? you're probably not near the bubble

---

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Agreed. Unless he's 50+ he's almost an hour from a KQ spot.

---

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

M40-44 AG. His picture in his ST profile identifies him.

He's 45-60 minutes from being KQ material.

---

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Maybe not super far off specific to IMWI. I'm in 35-39 and 2nd and 3rd place both went 9:40:xx there last year on a fantastic day. Somebody with a 37 flat 10k and 4w/kg FTP really should be able to get there with reasonable execution.

Edit: If he's 40-44 and the same Mike C. in the results I still have open, he was *only* 34 minutes off the podium.

If we loses 15-20 lbs and runs 10-18 minutes faster in the IM marathon he would be a lot closer to the bubble. The effect of that extra weight, muscle or not in a hot summer IM can't be discounted either.

---

Professional Athlete: http://jordancheyne.wordpress.com/ http://www.strava.com/athletes/145340

Coaching Services:http://www.peakformcoaching.com/

Thanks. That was helpful and interesting.


BTW KQs for IMWI for the past 3 years have been:


2017 6th place KQ 10:01:42
2016 5th place KQ 10:12:12
2015 5th place KQ 10:04:10


I think a sub-10 is doable given a consistent 64 minute swims and 5:20 bikes. If I can get the run to 3:30 I that should get me pretty close.


I train about 550-600 hours for the past 5 years or so and yes I am in the 40-44 AG.


I think I have the engine since my PRs in my early twenties for 10k is 34:24 and 75:30 for 1/2 marathon. I was about 10-15 lbs lighter have since gained muscle mass in my legs. I don't think there is much to lose in terms of body fat and I'm not really sure how one would reduce muscle mass so I guess I have to live with what I got;)

You gained 10-15 pounds of muscle mass in your legs? How and why would you do that?

My BMI is 23 and nearing 24 (6"2, 180lb) and I KQd last year. I'm guessing there is a correlation between KQ and BMI but it's probably not a causal factor. If you are in good enough shape for a KQ your BMI is probably going to adjust itself to where it is supposed to be.

I think what you really need to do is swim more to get your swim split under an hour and do some focused bike work to get your FTP up to 330-340 range (4.5 w/kg). Your run seems to be fine.

---

Strava

I'm not sure how, it just seemed to happen;)

That 64 minute swim is off 66 hours of swimming this year. Not a great swimmer it just seems that if I try to keep my weekly volume at 10k per week I get injured.

I focused on the run this year with about 241-hours/2000-miles but could have probably done more biking only doing about 282 hours. I will be focusing on the bike this year and try to ease off on the bike to get a faster run.

I'd love to add more to the conversation, but this is what I have right now. In 2017, I was the 10:01 guy coming in #6. There was no KQ for me there as there were in fact only 3 slots awarded to M40-44 that year.

I have never run a 37:00 10k. We have about the same ftp. We have identical height and weight. I don't really don't know that using the bmi metric means all that much to IM racing alone. I would guess that the faster and fitter you get, the bmi thing will work itself out.

I've found this to be true for running. Excess weight is a run killer. But if your run is already KQ pace, then your BMI isn't that much of an issue as far as speed during ideal weather. BMI barely affects swimming or biking, and extra fat can even improve swimming. Like mentioned, maybe excess mass can damage your speed due to overheating on warm. I know your pain - I am incredibly faster on cold days than warm ones. My best hope for a KQ is if they start having races in Antarctica.

I'm 5'7 and 158 pounds. Still stocky from rugby and weights, used to be 30 pounds heavier. One thing I noticed at roll down 2 weeks ago, nearly everyone was lean, much leaner than me. There are a few exceptions to the rule, but it was a moment of enlightenment!

Hello

maybe your muscle mass come from too intense training (developing "pink" fibers -IIa) ?

Training at and above FTP typically push IIa, typically increase muscle mass, increase FTP, but does not really help in IM ?

Reason why the Norway guys (the 3 who just blown 70.3 world best perf) train mostly at low intensities, with nearly no work at or above FTP, as explained in their coach interview, in the Kristian Blumenfelt thread...

Very interesting reading, where the "high intensity" part of the "polarized training" is below FTP...

... focusing on low volume low weight .... slow twitch fiber :-)

BMI is a terrible metric. How much body fat do you have? Under 15%? Under 10%?

I was going to say, there arent 5-6 slots anymore at IMWI in any AG with only 40 total. You need to be top 3, period, at which point he will need to be at least 30-45 min faster around 9:30 to have a chance. Top 2 guys were 9:28 last year, both ran under 3:10.

My advice for someone who has the power and speed but is thicker is dont do a course like IMWI to KQ, do something like IMLOU where there isnt as much climbing on the bike and flat run.

It's already been mentioned but there aren't six spots available at 40 slot races. You'll get 3, 4 at best.

Top 3 in 2017 were 9:19, 9:25, and 9:38. If you "think" 10:00 is doable, meaning a nearly perfect race and training, 9:30 is not a possibility.

I'm not trying to be a dick but you really need to take a more realistic viewpoint before going on what I'd call a futile KQ'ing adventure. You're nowhere near KQ material. Your swim is within a few minutes of the top guys in your AG but you're 30-40 minutes off with the bike/run combo. Those guys are biking in the 5:00-5:05 range and running 3:10-3:15 at Wisconsin.

You need to be able to consistently do sub-9:40 on a IMMT/IMWI type course to have a realistic shot in M40-44. Really a 9:30. Or do a lot of research and cherry pick a soft field course but there's not really any of those in the M30-49 AGs. If you're female it's a different story.

---

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

You have no idea how true that is. As a matter of fact, 5 weeks after the 10:01 in WI I raced Lou, went 9:30, and caught M40-44 KQ slot #4.

I think something that's not often talked about in a discussion like this is luck. I think luck plays a huge part in KQ for the majority of us. To KQ at any race, the majority of us have to have a race that goes absolutely perfect for us. We also have to be lucky enough for us to have a personally huge performance at the same time that some other competitors have an off day. We can have great genetics and huge fitness levels, being unlucky and having an off day, the outcome will not be what we want.

I would say yes I agree for most walks of life. But in triathlon I feel it's a useful metric to use, in conjunction with an accurate body fat measurement. The reason is that extra muscle can be detrimental to performance. So for example if I'm 10% bodyfat but my BMI is 23, I might need to lose some muscle too if I want to perform at my best. Jesse K (QT2 systems) has a good rule of thumb for elite triathletes which is around a BMI of 21. Using it in conjunction with a bodyfat measure helps to formulate a strategy of a) lose fat b) lose fat and muscle or c) gain muscle

A real life example would be an elite bodybuilder wanting to do tri. He would probably need to lose muscle even though his bodyfat is at an elite level.

---

____________________________________

Are you ready to do an Ultraman? | How I calculate Ironman race fueling | Strength Training for Athletes |

Congrats to you! Thats a quick turnaround, but glad it worked out for you. I had a similar strategy planned for a second IM 6 weeks after if I didnt KQ at the first, but thankfully it worked out for me and I didnt need to go that route.

I agree with you, luck plays a huge role because its all about who shows up on the day. There's probably 10 guys at any given race in those AGs who are there and its just about how the day unfolds for each. Past performance is a good predictor, but it only goes so far. Its not so much about what you can do on your best day, but what you can do when you are not having your best day.

I can KQ fairly easily at a BMI of around 23. If I want to be in top form however, it's usually around 22. If I could lose some upper body muscle I'd be around 21 and my run would improve a fair amount. My bike performance would decrease though if I lost any of that lean mass from lower body. Anything above 23 and my performance is not KQ level (except on the swim, extra floatation!)

---

____________________________________

Are you ready to do an Ultraman? | How I calculate Ironman race fueling | Strength Training for Athletes |

Ironman Wales.

It's cold
Sea swim (wetsuit legal)
It's cold, sometimes rainy
It's a hilly bike
Did I mention...It's cold and windy
Marathon? Nothing is flat in Wales.

Perfect...plus the winner went 10:01
:0)

Is there consensus around that 21 number?

If so, I'd feel a lot better! I've kicked up my training to 2-a-days recently, and when I weighed myself for the first time in a while, I was shocked to see 155 lbs (70kg). My BF% has for sure gone down, and I think I've built muscle (I drink protein shakes daily and generally have a high protein diet), but I normally am around 165 lbs.

At 6' (183cm) that would put my BMI right at 21. So, if that number is considered a good reference, then I can put my mind at ease :)

BMI>25 is overweight, >30 is obese, >40 is morbidly obese. For long events (I don't just mean IM) you are seeking the right amount of muscle to deal with the oxygen your lungs can deliver. And you may get three different answers for the three disciplines.