Who knows if it will happen but I wouldn't read too much into the recent cancellations. Decisions are being made locally. I don't think one race cancellation has much to do with other races. TC is cancelled in August and Muncie is still on in July.

The writing has been on the walk since 1 JAN.

Grow a garden, learn to play guitar, run 100mi in a week.

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This!
Races are done for 2020.

I think we will see some racing in Europe. Some small races are already happening.
Sam

Assume you live in Madison given your handle? Me too. It's not going to happen with who runs Dane County, the recent uptick in positives and college kids returning back to campus. Now states are barring other states from their borders and the EU won't have us in their countries..... I do not understand why the City doesn't simply tell IM the permits are pulled so everyone can move on.

I’m assuming it’s going to be cancelled being Madison. I wish governments and people would realize we’re going to have to learn to live with this and will likely have a fair bit of herd immunity before a vaccine is out regardless of whether we live our lives or not. If this was still about flattening the curve we’d be able to hold pretty much all races this year.

Herd immunity is an absolute unrealistic pipe dream. Current estimates are that 5-10 percent of the US population has contracted the virus. Herd immunity is what, 60-70%? So we need 6 to 12 times more of the populace to contract the virus. Does that sound doable?

I agree we have to learn to live with this for the foreseeable future but herd immunity isn’t the answer and racing triathlons is about 999,000 on the list of a million things we should be focused on.

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Yes.

I'm a little south of you, but work in public health research. The current trends in Dane County are not good. That alone should be enough of a tell.

Even if you put that aside, is it an event you really want to do? It won't be nearly the same experience. I raced IMWI last year and have volunteered and/or spectated nearly ever year the last decade. We all know these events could not happen without the unpaid labor that is volunteers. Even if Madison and Dane County threw up their hands and told IM to go for it, it wouldn't be a good experience for participants. Imagine how long the check in lines would be, how much slower and disorganized transitions would be, and how less supported aid stations would be. That stupid swim corral that involves humping each other for nearly an hour before the start then touching around our eyes to get goggles in place? Screw that.

Personally, I think it's the community that makes the race what it is. The course itself isn't anything super special. The first and last few miles of the bike course suck. There's lots of poor road surfaces. The groups on the two steepest climbs or in Verona are pretty fantastic though. The run has 1,000 ft of elevation and not a lot particularly interesting except for the people alongside it. There's nothing like coming up State Street on your 2nd run loop and getting that crowd boost until you see the Capital Building and then the finish line. No way it will be anything like usual this year.

I would echo what GMAN had to say as well, even though it's not directed at you. There are so many bigger issues for local authorities to deal with. I couldn't imagine bringing up a triathlon at work right now, especially if it involved bringing in many out-of-towners.

Maybe people like you and me that can sleep in their own bed the night before and after IMWI and might not care if they had to carry more of their own stuff on course would still like to participate in IMWI, but I doubt that's very many.

Agreed. Doubt any WTC races will be held in 2020.

Dude, Waukesha county cancelled lake country tri in Oconomowoc. Waukesha county is as red as they come...even they didn’t want to deal with it.

I’d point out that Madison green lit the aquathon series (first race was in a Madison Park this Thursday). Dane county green lit a new trail run series (first race was 2 weeks ago) in one of their parks.

I actually think local government here in Madison is giving racing a fair shake, on par with anything you are seeing elsewhere. I posted a much longer response on another thread.

But honestly... if Covid once again is rapidly expanding, as it appears to be in many parts of the country and here in Dane county, as a Madison and Dane county resident and triathlete, I would totally support pulling the plug on the race.

It is a drain on emt resources, police, medical staff, and volunteers. It brings thousands of others into town from throughout the country as vectors, and it is a nonessential mass participation event

If this IRONMAN triathlon pulls cops or emts or med staff away from other critical functions, the right call is to not hold the race.

This. Also, who is going to volunteer? The level of support needed for an olympic is next to nothing compared to an IM.

Herd immunity requires immunity actually forms, I don’t believe we know this to be true - there are reports of people catching it twice. I don’t think we know yet, but the hope of herd immunity appears a dream that may not be possible.

Come one....just say it....you know you want to...it will feel good.

What....are....the....odds....of....IM Wisconsin.....happening?

93-95% immunity within a population is necessary for herd immunity to Measles and 80-86% for polio. May not be impossible for COVID but we are nowhere near close.

We just had race today in FL although Madison WI is quite a bit different than Clermont FL. Are swimming pools open yet in Wisconsin?

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Yes....Pools are open. YMCA only one swimmer per lane which is better for me anyways. Local pools are open as well, no swim team leagues this year but most local teams are still practicing but grouped by families, etc..

In that case a vaccine is worth nothing. If people can get infected over and over again then we just have to deal with it. IFR per CDC and Fauci is pegged at 0.26%. All business that bring home a paycheck are essential and all activities that contribute positively to mental health and well-being are essential. At this point I may defer to next year if the race does happen simply because of the depressing atmosphere, but we need to value more than just lives.

Yes if you can't get immunity from natural infection I doubt we will get a vaccine that will do better than that. If vaccine works we may get herd immunity by immunizing enough people. I am a family doctor and just signed a death certificate last night. Guy died waiting for an aortic valve that never came because of covid health care shutdown. We need to wear masks observe some social distance but being doing stuff like running health care systems and having some fun before we all go crazy. Just wish people would be reasonable. Between folks who want to shut everything down and the people who want to participate in mass gatherings it is pretty frustrating.

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Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Writing is on the wall for any 2020 event. its not just for the racers safety but they have to think about hundreds of volunteers and spectators. Some races need to secure volunteers couple of months in advance and to be honest even today people might be hesitant to volunteer for a November event. That being said you probably see only individual cancellations at the bare minimum time frame. This is not they have some hope but there is economic side to it too. I am going to give an example from Chicago Marathon, right now its still a go. But it would be a miracle if they will held the event. Why they are not pulling the plug easily like other races? There are hundreds of charities and training groups rely on this event. if they pull the plug now would you sign up for a training group? If I was racing or planning to race this year, i would make a good long term plan and work on my weakness and come back in 2021

Here's Dane County's infection rate curve. 100% no race.

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I wrote this, you should read it:
https://www.slowtwitch.com/...n_Swimming_6700.html