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Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win “2021” Ironman WC (updated title with recent venue change)
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Bumped the the thread and edited the title given the new about the venue and date change


Yes, Jan is the reigning champ and course record holder, but that was almost 2 years ago. He's over 40 and I think the only races we've seen him in since were the Collins Cup and Tri Battle (which wasn't really a race per se). Also, was he having injury issues lately (back?) or am I just imagining that?

Iden has won the last two 70.3 World's (each by about 3 minutes) and the PTO Championship.

At Collins Cup they were in different heats, but their times were just 17 second apart (Jan was faster).

First timers have historically had a tough time at Kona due to the conditions, but will a February race be less humid than in October?

I really hope the race is able to happen. I think this would be a great battle and make for the most interesting race at Kona in a while.

Matt
Last edited by: Chemist: Sep 24, 21 13:53
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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If the race does happen, my guess is no. He is not the favorite. But he is a top contender.

I won't be surprised if he wins, but I also won't be surprised if he running 7:30's the final 10k.

Course knowledge is worth 5-10 places IMO.
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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I don't think we can count Iden as a Kona favorite until he's actually done an IM full distance event. Remember when we all thought Alistair would walk in and dominate the distance? That said, I like this Gustav kid a lot. I'd be happy if he was the next face of IM.






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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Tri-Banter] [ In reply to ]
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Ali got a flat rode on a flat while keeping up with the front pack for 2 hours and then panicked caught jan in 40 minutes after a wheel swap. not exactly a lucky Kona day.

Iden in 2019 road bike 70.3 world champ. He would be faster on a tri bike.
Iden 2021 tri bike 70.3 world champ. faster and gaps everyone off the bike, does ever need to run hard. Yet still does the fastest run split of the day.

10 minutes later people doubt he is good at triathlon. HAHA

Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Tri-Banter] [ In reply to ]
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You can’t say favourite, but a contender for sure. It was quite ominous in the interview when he said he bridged ‘surprisingly quickly’ and then the bike was ‘easy’ until he put the hammer down.

I expected him to whisper his way to T2 then win on the run, so he’s shown something else today.

Gut feel is that he’s another Jan - a top 10 guy at ITU (although Jan had the one great day, he was usually a top 10 sort of guy) but who finds that longer distances suit him more.

He’s going to add interest in Feb for sure.
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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Not sure how a guy that has never done a race, or even the distance of that race, could be considered the favorite. He will of course be up there in the predictions like so many before him. Always fun to have new blood pitch up to island for the first time, so many dreams dashed on that first day.

The list is very long of first timers that would/could have demolished Kona on their first try, but the list of those that did is about one..

I like his chances though to be in the mix all day long, no real weakness in the 3 events to set him back from the lead group. Now if he gets the 4th event down, then he could be dangerous and maybe # 2 on that short list?
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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The same way his team mate signed up for the sub 7 experiment without doing the distance.....supreme confidence in one owns potential🙂
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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As was said on the webcast today, he and KB have been training like long distance athletes on some level without doing the distance. That being said, I would not put him as a favorite since he hasn't actually done the distance. So I wouldn't count him out but wouldn't count him at the top either since Jan is there and has so much experience and has done it as had Lange. I am sure Jan is paying close attention to their results and taking note of that.

"see the world as it is not as you want it to be"
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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Iden could be something like Luc van Lierde back in ‘96 or so. First attempt immediately the win. That said, i wouldn’t bet against a fit Frodeno ;-)

Jeroen

Owner at TRIPRO, The Netherlands
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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Regarding the upcoming Kona, I don't think so. I could definitely see him becoming dominant at the distance in a couple of years as he gains experience and some of the current favorites start to wind down, though.
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [flubber] [ In reply to ]
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A possibly interesting comparison is the performance of Iden’s brother when he won in Talinn, setting a (short lived) Norwegian record. Mikal isn’t pro and doesn’t want to be, but he is around Gustav and Blu all the time and does ride/train with them. Using him as a benchmark can give some indication that they know what they are doing and are not going into the distance “blind”.

That being said it is daft to anoint him the king now. He’ll definitely be a contender though. You’d think there are a few who can seriously challenge for the win in the events next year. The February edition might just open things up to more guys too with the more clement temps and humidity.
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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Chemist wrote:
Yes, Jan is the reigning champ and course record holder, but that was almost 2 years ago. He's over 40 and I think the only races we've seen him in since were the Collins Cup and Tri Battle (which wasn't really a race per se). Also, was he having injury issues lately (back?) or am I just imagining that?

Iden has won the last two 70.3 World's (each by about 3 minutes) and the PTO Championship.

At Collins Cup they were in different heats, but their times were just 17 second apart (Jan was faster).

First timers have historically had a tough time at Kona due to the conditions, but will a February race be less humid than in October?

I really hope the race is able to happen. I think this would be a great battle and make for the most interesting race at Kona in a while.

Can he make the front swim pack? If he can that is a positive. The second pack has traditionally had a lot of horsepower recently so even if he isn't in the front pack it is possible those boys get to the front anyway. Never underestimate the importance of race dynamics at Kona.


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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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Chemist wrote:
Yes, Jan is the reigning champ and course record holder, but that was almost 2 years ago. He's over 40 and I think the only races we've seen him in since were the Collins Cup and Tri Battle (which wasn't really a race per se). Also, was he having injury issues lately (back?) or am I just imagining that?

Iden has won the last two 70.3 World's (each by about 3 minutes) and the PTO Championship.

At Collins Cup they were in different heats, but their times were just 17 second apart (Jan was faster).

First timers have historically had a tough time at Kona due to the conditions, but will a February race be less humid than in October?

I really hope the race is able to happen. I think this would be a great battle and make for the most interesting race at Kona in a while.

Jan cruised to victory at Challenge Miami this year, and also won Challenge Grand Canaria.

Let food be thy medicine...
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [JackStraw13] [ In reply to ]
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Jan also went 7:2x on a tough rainy day in a full 140.6 ITT with no one to use all day. It does not seem to me like Jan's days are over yet. Iden still has to do an Ironman. Jan was won all year in several formats! Is Iden doing IM California with Jan?
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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In his Breakfast with Bob interview, Iden states he is doing Cozumel
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [JackStraw13] [ In reply to ]
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Completely spaced out Miami and didn’t know about Grand Canaria (gotta throw away my triathlon fan card for missing those).

So looks like Kanute was at Miami as well as 70.3 worlds as was LCB (and probably some others). For fun you could compare the margin from Jan to each of them at Miami and from Iden to each of them at St G.

Matt
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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Chemist wrote:
Completely spaced out Miami and didn’t know about Grand Canaria (gotta throw away my triathlon fan card for missing those).

So looks like Kanute was at Miami as well as 70.3 worlds as was LCB (and probably some others). For fun you could compare the margin from Jan to each of them at Miami and from Iden to each of them at St G.


To solve what you are getting at you can compare margin between Jan and Iden at Collins cup. Problem solved. Now take into account that Jan has raced several Ironmans and wins almost every one he starts. Iden has never done one. Jan weighs almost 20 lbs more than Iden, which will help Jan on a Kona type bike more than Iden. Iden is much lighter and should run faster. Iden has won 70.3 WC on good watts per kilo courses.
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Sep 18, 21 17:39
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Chemist] [ In reply to ]
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We all know the one reason Iden wins is because of his lucky hat. It's why he doesn't do as well in ITU...no hat
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [Triathletetoth] [ In reply to ]
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Triathletetoth wrote:
Ali got a flat rode on a flat while keeping up with the front pack for 2 hours and then panicked caught jan in 40 minutes after a wheel swap. not exactly a lucky Kona day.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who picked up on Ali massive effort in Kona with both riding a flat tyre for a while and especially bridge the gap to fast after the wheel swap, that must have burnt him a bunch of matches and cost him the marathon. It's actually scary to think what he actually did on the bike and how easily the managed to pull himself back to Frodeno/Tim O

Would love to see him fit and healthy in Kona again

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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [vinnie] [ In reply to ]
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Going by history, the only time you can label someone with the favourite tag for Kona is when they've raced it before and either won it or come close. As we all know doing well in ITU races, 70.3s, other Ironman races can be almost meaningless. Brownlee was 2nd at the world champs 2 years on the trot. Macca got his arse handed to him a number of times etc etc
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [vinnie] [ In reply to ]
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vinnie wrote:
Triathletetoth wrote:
Ali got a flat rode on a flat while keeping up with the front pack for 2 hours and then panicked caught jan in 40 minutes after a wheel swap. not exactly a lucky Kona day.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who picked up on Ali massive effort in Kona with both riding a flat tyre for a while and especially bridge the gap to fast after the wheel swap, that must have burnt him a bunch of matches and cost him the marathon. It's actually scary to think what he actually did on the bike and how easily the managed to pull himself back to Frodeno/Tim O

Would love to see him fit and healthy in Kona again


A lot of people wanted him to fail, and he did in relative terms. It’s a long way from the end for him.

It was his first attempt at a full distance too after his quali race had no swim. I remember hearing/reading that irrespective of the bike issues he wasn’t happy on the run and needed to do something about the heat. So he went to Australia, set a course record in the heat and got his KQ very soon after Kona. He’s still a factor in the WC.

Looking forward to seeing how some other athletes go in the cooler temps in February. Think that will have a big impact for a lot of people.
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [ianmo80] [ In reply to ]
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All of this is true. But he's never been THE favorite to win Kona. Putting Iden in the mix probably drops Ali's chances a bit more, but still in the conversation. Put Jan on the start line and he's got our attention.






Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [vinnie] [ In reply to ]
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vinnie wrote:
Triathletetoth wrote:
Ali got a flat rode on a flat while keeping up with the front pack for 2 hours and then panicked caught jan in 40 minutes after a wheel swap. not exactly a lucky Kona day.


I'm glad I'm not the only one who picked up on Ali massive effort in Kona with both riding a flat tyre for a while and especially bridge the gap to fast after the wheel swap, that must have burnt him a bunch of matches and cost him the marathon.

I found that puzzling. He's a professional first, a competitor second. It's all very well racing aggressively and going for the win, but as a pro, you still need to race smart. As soon as he flatted, the win was gone, but a top 3 place was still on the cards. His power and HR would have been through the roof catching those guys, surely alarm bells would have been going off inside his head?
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [zedzded] [ In reply to ]
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zedzded wrote:
vinnie wrote:
Triathletetoth wrote:
Ali got a flat rode on a flat while keeping up with the front pack for 2 hours and then panicked caught jan in 40 minutes after a wheel swap. not exactly a lucky Kona day.


I'm glad I'm not the only one who picked up on Ali massive effort in Kona with both riding a flat tyre for a while and especially bridge the gap to fast after the wheel swap, that must have burnt him a bunch of matches and cost him the marathon.


I found that puzzling. He's a professional first, a competitor second. It's all very well racing aggressively and going for the win, but as a pro, you still need to race smart. As soon as he flatted, the win was gone, but a top 3 place was still on the cards. His power and HR would have been through the roof catching those guys, surely alarm bells would have been going off inside his head?

Maybe when your engine is that big and you have a massive buffer to do thing that normal humans can't get away with, you lose perspective of what is possible. At Olympic and even half IM, chasing people if dropped due to a mishap seems like a good idea if you are Alistair.
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Re: Is Gustav Iden now the favorite to win Kona? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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IMO, not yet. He must race an IM first and see what he is capable of.On paper, he should be up there but Jan is favourite no.1. Remind you the expectations with Alistair before Kona.Then we can think of Blummy, but I tend to think Iden can do better in IM distance.

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