.95% of your 20min power yields an FTP of 249. Assuming you race at .75IF, that gives you around 186-187W on race day.

Plugging your numbers into best bike split (which is notorious for being "fast") with a 0.305CdA and Crr of 0.003 shows you with a 5:12. So yeah it's feasible especially if you are pretty areo, can hold your position, and keep your power nice and even.

what's your 5hr FTP?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Yes. At IMFL, I held 172 AP and went 5:11. Similar weight, similar FTP. I would think the courses are similar. It was freezing and windy so maybe Arizona is a bit faster?

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http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

it really depends on what power you can hold for about 5:10hrs.

i did a 5:06 with 5mins worth of porta potty stops off about 175w @ 155lbs at IMAZ 2019 (so a 5:02 "moving time")

yes, that should be totally doable if you are decently aero. i have very similar FTP (260) and about 5-7lbs lighter. pretty solid aero set up on my Argon 119 tri, probably around .225 CDA.

I went 5:04 on 175 NP, 169 AP. i pushed a little hard early to stay with some groups and probably paid for it a little on the last lap. also, the wind was not too much of a factor this year vs. others. BBS had me right around same time, maybe a couple minutes faster.

^^^this.

yeah, you can do that time. Get your bike miles in. don’t try 180W on race day though ... maybe 180 NP, even that sounds high. 1’d target like 175 NP, upper 160s AP ... there is a run afterwards.

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

A CdA of .305 is pretty abysmal but judging by the average AG-er bike fit and race setup might actually be accurate :) crr of 0.003 is next to impossible though and especially not on those roads. Even with really fast tires and latex tubes you could probably only hope for .005 or worse.
Unless you rode .75 IF for 5h in training and was able to put on a decent 1h run off the bike without bonking I would say aim for .70

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What's your CdA?

How was your run?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

How was your run?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

My FTP at the time was about 285, and I ran a 3:24 with a 1:31/2 first half.

This advice is a sure fire recipe for disaster

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

not the worst, not the best. went way too fast the first 4-5 miles. i was racing for top 5-10 vs. staying within myself. and tried to make up ground. apparently all the fast 50-54s showed up that day vs. previous year nobody went below 3:40. tried to go sub 3:30, which was probably a mistake. knocked out a few miles at 7:30 pace. then a bunch more in the low to mid 8s. never fully imploded but slowed down to 9' plus pace the last 6-7 miles. had i run steady, 3:40-3:45 was doable on the day even with some of the bike surges. ended up at 3:53. was good for 14th.

Very nice

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

except for miles 14-26.2, it was pretty nice. bad run fueling (and pacing). thought i could run a 3:10 or slightly under. womp womp.

Trying to figure out what to ride from a 20 min FTP test (can we even call that an FTP test?) is about the worst thing I've read on ST today.

Why don't you look at all your data for your rides from 4-6h and see what you've been holding for that duration. That's going to tell you waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more than a 20 min ftp test will for what power to target come race day.

You have enough time to get in 5-6 5h + rides and really dial your race day power number in.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Spoken with class and accuracy.

Thank you.

First:
- Can You? With the general info you provided, Yes ... but how does it effect your run?
- I do know that 5:18 is possible for 161pd athlete, decent "aero" position, average aero position / gear, and the ride had an I.F. of .5

NEXT ... what Brian said really is the case. Please do not base your IMAZ pacing and power off of a 20min test. At this point dial in what think you can hold for 5:30, subtract 10 watts, eat and drink intelligently, THEN, run well!

As Brian mentioned, you have plenty of time to dial in the appropriate ranges to hit during the ride!

Best of Luck and I hope the race happens!

DL

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-------------------------
Dave Latourette
http://www.TTENation.com

As I said, I was ready to read/listen all experts; all Phd; all super heros; super fast guys and super coaches from ST...
That was the exactly reason for my post!!
Tks, I really appreciated.

What worked for me was targeting HR. It's great to hold power in training, but your swim, weather, sleep, nutrition, stress, etc., will play into your day. Use power as a guide but if you want to run your best stay in upper Z2 HR on the bike. If you train right, your power will be there. Off that, you will run as you trained.

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http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

Did IMAZ last year.

Time: 5:15:xx
AP: 195
NP: 202
AVG HR: 138
Last known FTP (test was from 2018) 276.

34, 165 pounds

Considering I was sitting up for most of the time because of some pretty gnarly back spasms, I was pretty content with that time.

This was also the first time I have ever negative split an IM run. It helps when you walk/jog the the first mile because you can barely bend over to tie your shoe. Run split ended up being 3:24:xx.

I will echo what Brian said as well. Both in my coaching, and also as a long course athlete, I hold far more value in the data coming in from 4-6 hour rides. What does it matter if you can hold 300+ or 4.0 w/kg for 20 minutes when you are talking about a bike split, that at its fastest will be above 4:30. Is the data useful in certain cases, and help establish a baseline, yes. But I am not in the camp of FTP test results being the lone factor or data point to guide 70.3 and Ironman racing.

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IG: NCGregory8778

Questions like this are why I should probably have a coach, but.......

What would one look for in those long rides/bricks and how would one adjust from a long ride/brick power in the middle of a training block to race day?

This.

As anecdotal evidence: I consider myself a fairly decent cyclist among your average AG'er. I have done several half and full IM's. During all of those I have had "proven" FTP in the range of 310 - 320 w (proven, in the sense that I have actually ridden an hour holding those numbers - not only derived from 20min tests). I am also your typical time-constrained triathlete, so I really lack training for the long durations. I have struggled to put in long rides over 2 hrs.

For the Half IM-bike splits i have typically been able to hold NP 250 - 260 watts. Best bike split for a half 2:20.

For the Full IMs I have never - ever in any of my attempts - been able to hold 75% of my FTP. I've been around NP 210-220. Sometimes been down close to 200 (in really harder courses where the bike-time is longer). My best bike-split for a full IM is 5:20 (should be noted -though- all full IM's have been hilly and the flattest/fastest one was crazy windy).

My example shows that for a half IM im pretty much able to hold a decent % of FTP (based on various "rules of thumb" for pacing half IMs) - I attribute this to a half IM being pretty close in bike-time to what i regularly train. In full IM i go waay over the duration I usually ride. Even though my FTP as an isolated number may be fine and high enough - I lack the ability to hold 75% of this for 5 hrs +.

To pace your IM ride 5 hrs and check how you feel at 70 % of ftp. Dont do x % of your FPT because some rule of thumb sais so :)

You don't have to get a coach. You could contact a coach to consult with on this info to help you dial it in

One would look at their AP. That's what you actually did. You could look at NP to see how you did your AP. Then you can correlate that with how you felt, if you think you could run a marathon, your PRE and any other subjective thoughts on your day then adjust up/down based on those.

I answered a question like this with an algorithm one time about AP then looking at your NP to see how you rode your AP, how to weight your rides to determine a 5w range to target, what to think about on race day in regards to that number etc. I'm too lazy to go search for it, it's out there though

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta