I hope they go over a good bit of the decision making that went on for the bike "arrangement", swim and bike pacing, etc.

Blu just posted a video on instagram that shows him biking in the 3rd position of his pace line with another 4-5 guys behind him. Also a picture with the phrase "from Big --> small rider or small --> big rider" "What give group lowest avg power? and what produces my lowers power?". While the video you posted shows Skipper riding the very rear of a 5 man train (maybe not ever guy has arrived yet, I know Dowsett just finished the Giro). Also, Skipper's position looks so stretched and uncomfortable to me.

Anybody else worried about a crash TTTing for so long?

Kind of piggybacking on your thought. Would be interesting to know if there is a back-up plan for any of the guys that aren't having a good day. Like, if it would better for them to just attach to the rear of the train instead of just dropping out completely. It's a long time to be in aero only a few inches from the rear of the guy in front of you so I would assume some guys will need to drop back for both safety and performance.

what i wonder have they changed the bike position of ruth as basically in her race position there is not that much to draft off . i do however think its very smart to have a fixed cyclist before the main athlete and let this cyclist worry about the sloting in off the front guys and have the main athletes constantly in the draft.

Brief flyby of Kristian and his team on the track with Kristian in 6th. All on the new bike. https://www.instagram.com/...?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

I thought the same thing about Skipper's position, but I think it's party due to the angle of the sun reflecting off of his jersey, making him look more stretched than he actually is.

This is a major challenge for all the protected riders (the only ones riding for the full 180km). Less of an issue for tester teams of 3 doing a few circuits (2 - 6, so 12km - 35km, 16-48 minutes for the women): that's just down to skillz.

Good summary from Mark Matthews (managing wife's team) on ProTriNews:
(3 minutes)
Cross-posting

Think it's worth taking the shared predictions with a pinch of salt (and worth adding a minute each for T1 and T2: possible change into running kit for the run):
Per Sub7/Sub8 site/insta:
Blummenfelt 50 + 3:45 + 2:25 = 7:00
Skipper 49 + 3:20 + 2:37 = 6:46
Spirig 50 + 4:19 + 2:45 = 7:54
Matthews 50 + 4:00 + 2:40 = 7:30
My comments are:
1. KB figures are placeholders - they prefer not to share their actual plan/expectations.
2. JS: might swim 49 but will be at least 2 mins down on KB (this sets up the TTT bike pass once on Lausitzring). 3:20 requires a 54kph (33+mph) average which would be amazing. But for sure his TTT will go sub 3:30 (51.3kph). Question is how close can KB (Bottrill's) gang get. Each kph more (or less) gains/loses about 200 secs over 180km.
3. NS figure for the bike is a placeholder; think swim probably +2 but run are dead on, with hope of negative split. They will surely ride faster: ?44kph for a 4:06.
4. KM: swim +2 or 3 and likely slower than NS (but KM swim has improved since NS beat her in Gran Canaria 2021, and NS not in Olympic/ITU form anymore). Will expect to go well sub 4 (see interview Tuesday) on the bike. Unlikely to run 2:40 (has 2:49 from 2021 Tulsa in 'back pocket' off a proper IM bike but (according to husband on ProTriNews youtube) "has not run much since 70.3 Lanza" (17 Mar) so maybe 2:45.
These are discussed here:


My predictions:
Blummenfelt 47 + 3:40 + 2:25 = 6:52+2
Skipper 49 + 3:30 + 2:33 = 6:52+2
Spirig 52 + 4:06 + 2:45 = 7:43+2
Matthews 53 + 3:54 + 2:45 = 7:32+2

These guys are living the life...So looking forward to watching the event.

.

Skipper and co. putting 10 minutes on Blum and co. on the bike? That seems like a lot. They haven’t done any of the same races, but I think IM Florida and IM Cozumel are fairly in terms of bike difficulty. Skipper went 4:05:51 in the former and Blum went 4:02:40 in the latter. I bet they end up with a split within 2-3 minutes unless one really goes for it leading to a blowup on the run. Which is entirely possible given that Skipper said they are trying to ride a 3:20z. But even if he is 10 minutes off his mark and comes in at 3:30 he’ll have a tough time running under 2:40. But that is just my fairly uneducated guess

---

Matt

The pacers can have as many laps out as they need on the circuit.

Bob (bike performance #TeamKristian)

Part of my job is coming up with plans for anything that might happen on the bike. This is a very real possibility. More so I would say on the run in to the track as there are a number of sharp bends (but also closed roads) and we have to go past a construction site on a temporary road.
On the track the men are likely to overtake the women a number of times maybe 5-7. Plus you have pacers dropping in and out.

Bob

That's not how this works...

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Thank you for that insight, Bob.
I think the Blu train will undertake the women on 8 passes (4 Matthews, 4 Spirig). They enter when the women are on Lap 7. Matthews' train will be ahead by then (?3 minutes).
The men will gain a minute a lap (based on a differential of 7kph (54 to 47 or 52-45 say)). If your differential to Matthews' lot is less, your "7 times" is on the money, as you won't catch them before they stop in T2.
In addition Biggles' gang will be coming past yours in the first 10 laps on the undertake.
Warn your guys to be prepared for Junkyard Dog barking as they come past: I know there's been some practice/rehearsal for that. Or perhaps everyone will be far too professional?
Each M-W pass will be over in maybe 50 seconds (50m behind to 50m in front) but the M-M pass, if we assume a 2kph differential, will take 220 seconds: nearly half a lap.
Keep safe everyone.

5.7 PASSING - DEKRA LAUSITZRING
I. At Dekra Lausitzring, the team moving fastest has priority on the inside of the circuit. This will be policed by Race Officials who will notify the slower moving team to move off the inside line when the faster team gets to within 50m of the slower team in front. The slower team can move back to the racing line when the faster team’s last rider is at least 50m in front of their first rider.
5.8 III. During a passing movement the Support Vehicle of the slower moving team must move to the outside lane to allow the slower moving team to ride in the middle lane and for the faster moving team and their support vehicle to pass on the inside lane.

Blum did a little test run yesterday...160km, 49kph, 260 watts

They said they are aiming for 55kph avg

I hope the weather will be good

The overtaking rules might be changed. I think the faster team will be going past on the right. The slower team ordered not to change. Still to be confirmed but both men's teams asked for that.

If they overtake good luck to them. Our job is to deliver Kristian at target pace.

nice intro interview with Macca....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B91aypkzeSU

I guess there is always that risk, but those support guys are class TT riders on road and track. They are about as trusted as it gets.

One group trying to ride faster than another group is not how this works?

---

Matt

260 watts for 49 k mh
ie its much more about the team than the triathletes bike split in other races.
so comparing bike splits in an ironman is fairly useless uless you have one where both draft behind a motorbike for 180 k