Im curious if the participation is up due to the economy being relatively good (lets not debate whether it is good or bad right now but market is up and people feel wealthier)

Since entry fees are expensive and bikes and gear - the barrier to entry into the sport is high. I wonder if it will dip of the economy dips. Does anyone remember from 2008ish if the same thing happened?

In the USA we have 10 full distance Ironman races (Not counting Kona because you cant just sign up).

Lake Placid, New York - Sold Out
Wisconsin - Open - Tier 4
Maryland - Open - Tier 4
Chattanooga, Tennessee - Open - Tier 4
Louisville, Kentucky - Open - Tier 4
Florida - Sold Out
Arizona - Sold Out
Memorial Hermann, Texas - Opening Soon
Santa Rosa, Californa - Open - Tier 3
Boulder, Colorado - Open - Tier 2

That is a lot of options spread out across the nation...and we are still not selling everything out.

2008 and before, could sign up for IMAZ about 6 months out. That was the year they had two IMAZs and I think about that time the immediate sellouts started

The spring IMAZ had a reputation for heat and wind which is why they shifted it to Nov. Other IMs (of which there weren't that many back then) had already been selling out a year before. IMHO, there is now rough parity between supply and demand for IM branded races in North America such that sell outs are possible but for most of them, only many months after they first opened. To describe a July 2018 sell-out for IMFL as an increase in demand seems to forget that it (and others back in the day) used to sell out a few minutes after it opened online. Also, IMFL may be benefiting from some nostalgia entries since it is the 20th anniversary edition of that race.

Texas sells out well ahead of time...who knew?! In 2017, I registered 10 days before the race and there were folks doing walk up registration at the expo. In 2018, it sold out in January if I recall; I wouldn't call that well ahead of time. Lake Placid veterans are probably laughing at your comment considering people used to fly there just to volunteer in order to guarantee their registration for the following year. IMAZ always sells out early because it is closest one to the under-served SoCal market. But I hope there is an uptick just to ensure the current events survive.

I am making more of a YoY comparison than a long term one. Agreed long term trend is negative, but maybe there has been a slight positive uptick?

Two implications: will other new races be added at some point? Will we lose the optionality of waiting until soon before a race to commit?

The comment about supply meeting demand seems pretty accurate nowadays, so hopefully at least we don’t lose anymore races.

IMAZ has always sold out quick. Generally you'd need to volunteer in order to get to register the morning after the race before it went on sale to the general public. Still sells out quickly, but I believe the last two years it actually made it to an online sale, whereas in the past it rarely did.

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Tough Times Don't Last, Tough People Do.

Yeah, I remember when people thought they had to fly across the country to volunteer for IMAZ, IMFL, etc just to register for the next year. That was insanity!

From what I have seen, traditionally faster and flatter races typically sell out faster (or just sell out) compared to hillier races but that is just my unscientific observation

IMWI was a staple day off sell out until about 3-4 years ago. Last year it sold out in April, as of July 2nd they were just over 2k registered. So at least for IMWI the downward trend continues. FWIW over 2800 raced last year so that does not count those that registered and did not race.

I think the angle that we are all taking here is market saturation...i.e. is that market flooded with product in excess of demand?

From an Ironman prospective the answer is probably close to a yes, or flat out yes.

Personally, being new to triathlon and honestly loving the sport, I want to race as quality multipart events as I can. Full distance triathlons do not really allow for that type of quantity/quality mix.

At the end of this season I am going to be in the neighborhood of 8-10 triathlons. I had registered for 3 Half IM's, 4 Olympics, and 2 sprints. At this point I had to pull out of one of the half distance races because my sister was completing her doctorate (I wouldn't miss that and the race director ended up being cool...giving me a partial refund and sending me a $50 gift card)

I may end up doing a full IM or another half IM in Oct. if they are still open and I am in good form.

The other problem is the cost. If I wanted to race 3 IM races in a year I could spend around $6000. This is of course after fees, travel, etc.

1. Is the market saturated?
2. Do people want to race more?
3. Is the cost prohibitive?
4. Is the competition level too high?
5. Are the races not that much fun for most people?

It’s mainly due to their newer tiered pricing policy. Prior to implementing that a few years ago, some races didn’t sell out and you could walk up two days before the race and sign up.

There are rumblings that there will be a new IM near Seattle to replace IMCDA. Not sure what time of year. I can’t wait. I am about 8 hours drive to Whistler for my closet race.

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Oui, mais pas de femme toute de suite (yes, but I am not ready for a woman straight away) -Stephen Roche's reply when asked whether he was okay after collapsing at the finish in the La Plagne stage of the 1987 Tour

Lake Stevens 70.3 went defunct, I wonder where they would have it up in Seattle...?

I've heard rumblings about something in Bend, OR for years. I jump on that in a heartbeat

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Tough Times Don't Last, Tough People Do.

anyone know how long IMAZ stays open online now?
Me and 4 of my friends are planning to register for next year.

Bend Oregon had the Leadman, it never took off. I raced the final year and it seemed as if Bend did not want an Ironman race there.

I figured WTC would have already been there if they wanted to be...or if Bend wanted them.

Regarding a new event near Seattle-- Local newspaper article referred to efforts by Maple Valley city manager (who is a triathlete) to do a deal to bring an Ironman event to that area. But I inferred it was more focused on 70.3 distance. Made it sound like expanding the existing Lake Wilderness oly course to 70.3 distance.

That sounds plausible. I was thinking of expanding the black diamond tri in enumclaw, but Maple Valley looks like a better location as far as accommodations and things to do.

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Oui, mais pas de femme toute de suite (yes, but I am not ready for a woman straight away) -Stephen Roche's reply when asked whether he was okay after collapsing at the finish in the La Plagne stage of the 1987 Tour

Remember, Black Diamond tri is going the other way. Last year was last one with 70.3 option. This year is only oly and sprint.

I've heard rumor of a new 70.3 somewhere in the Midwest possibly as early as next year.

In years past it never even made it to a online sale. I think in the past two years it has, and probably lasted 1-2hr tops before it was sold out.

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Tough Times Don't Last, Tough People Do.

That was probably the one in Springfield, IL and turns out to be a legal threat to the RD instead of a WTC acquisition.

I raced Du nationals in Bend. It was a wonderful place to race and visit but it is just too far from any major population center or large airport to reasonably host a corporate-owned Ironman event.

I wouldn't expect to see any new IM branded or indy fulls in the United States unless/until current participation increases by at least 15-20%. Internationally, I would still expect to see the occasional addition (e.g., IM Ireland new for 2019). Same story with 70.3s which is even more saturated. E.g., last year we lost the Miami 70.3 and this year we lost the Raleigh 70.3 and the Syracuse 70.3. The likelihood of new 70.3s is slim until the market stabilizes and total participation increases. Toughman has a solid series of HIMs and seems to be stable for the moment. HITS is down to just four venues (it doesn't appear that Naples is on for 2019) and seems to be on death's door. OTOH, Challenge Daytona is brand new for Dec 2019 and it will be interesting to see if they can get it right this go-round before expanding into more of North America.