Impossible to predict. Anything that makes logical sense can still get reversed by just a couple guys making decisions for completely unrelated reasons.

I kq’d 4 out of my last 5 attempts and just chose a fall race that logically should be one of the harder ones to qualify at, and my decision was just based on dates and proximity.

All takes is one or two guys from anywhere in the world to sign up for whatever reason and suddenly you ran into a buzz saw.

All that said I bet you would have an easier time in Utah than Texas. Make a decision based on other factors

I am doing Texas because

1) the bike is flat and cycling is my #3 discipline
2) there is the remote possibility that it is not wetsuit legal and swimming is my #1 discipline
3) I have lots of experience training and racing in hot humid weather

It also happens to be a local-ish race.

KQ is not really my objective, however.

My guess is you still get fast South Americans and local Texans (I'm sure there are lots of them!) and it is like any other race, plus I see that Texas is already in tier 4. I wonder if people signed up for it in the weeks following this year's race with the assumption that it would continue on as NA Champs? Not sure if that was announced or made clear immediately after but they sure didn't announce St.G as champs or Tulsa before registration opened.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Dan and I will race in St-George so don't worry about us in Texas ;-p
Sam

those as good reasons as any.