your analysis (I presume its yours) uses Julie's interviews as a source... what if you remove that (she could have mis-remembered)?
What speed would JM have had to travel on laps 2 and 3 to make up the ~10 minutes (she was down by 11:16 after lap one the only 1:20 near the end of the bike)? The main page article is saying that 3:52 is possible for the whole course. Ok. But does doing laps two and three 15 minutes faster than lap one make sense? Is that possible?
It makes no difference. Tamasin passed Julie initially (photo evidence proves that), rode away to gain some considerable margin and then passed Julie at the end (according to Tamasin and also according to Julie in the interview). So the source is two fold, Tamasin Reno and Julie Miller.
Even if we remove that, having been pedestrian enough to lose all that time on the first lap, it would have required the about the same pace as the pro females to overtake Tamasin Reno and if she was going that pace then how did Tamasin pass her again at the end. If Julie was going slow enough at the end for Tamasin to not only catch but pass and still almost 2 minutes into Miller it is likely that miller would have to be going as fast if not faster than the pro / elite females for that middle portion. Dan has alluded to that in the last paragraph, I think he is building in an element of comfort zone in order to be fair. I am looking at that info though.