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IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event
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Just checking in to see if anyone has concerns about tropical storm/hurricane Michael and the potential impact to the race?

I've not raced in FL before, hoping that:

a. The storm is not too significant (it's a hurricane though so...)
b. It is occurring 3+ weeks out, so maybe enough time for cleanup and repair?

Curious to see what others think? Especially those who've raced there before or are maybe locals?

Thanks!
-Mike

(Yes, the irony of my name and this storm is not lost on me)
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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It should also be mentioned that the Panama City/30A area has been dealing with a "red tide" event for like 2 months now. I was in PCB on vacation 2 weeks ago although further West of Boardwalk and there were piles of dead fish and eels all over the beach. The water was super brown in the afternoon but clear in the mornings. It affects everyone differently and it caused me to hack and cough like crazy. Also irritated my skin. Just wanted to make you aware.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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It really depends how hard it hits. Looks like it's not forecasted to be a major hurricane and looks like the storm surge predictions are not bad for the PCB area.

2018 Races:
INJURED

Favorite Gear: Dimond Bikes | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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triguy86 wrote:
It should also be mentioned that the Panama City/30A area has been dealing with a "red tide" event for like 2 months now. I was in PCB on vacation 2 weeks ago although further West of Boardwalk and there were piles of dead fish and eels all over the beach. The water was super brown in the afternoon but clear in the mornings. It affects everyone differently and it caused me to hack and cough like crazy. Also irritated my skin. Just wanted to make you aware.

just as an FYI - in 2015, PCB had red tide to some degree, and the swim at IMFL was NOT canceled. Just as noted above - red tide caused me to cough uncontrollably when I got within 30 feet of the water. It affects people differently. I think swimming in that water ruined my race, but it didn't seem to affect others the same way.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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I'm racing IMFL this year as my first full.... plus taking the family for 9 days so of course hoping for perfect weather ;-)

I've tried not to think about weather yet.... with 4 weeks out a lot could change.... trying to stay focused on my training and logistics/travel..... focused on the control what I can control approach. Hoping the storm won't have too much impact on the local area or people of course.

Good Luck at race and let's keep fingers crossed!
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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by the way I see your race schedule says "injured". Me too. Nice to know I'm not alone!
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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I wasn't aware of the red tide situation... interesting.

So maybe the hurricane clears that all out for us and this is a good thing :)
(that's how I'm going to rationalize it anyway)
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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triguy86 wrote:
by the way I see your race schedule says "injured". Me too. Nice to know I'm not alone!


Had a bike crash over Memorial Day weekend that's been the gift that keeps on giving. First it was all the stitches, bruises, road rash, etc. Then I realized something wasn't right with my shoulder. So I'm having surgery in 3-4 weeks. Which will put me out of commission until next May. So it will have been basically a full year of no swimming, cycling, or running.

2018 Races:
INJURED

Favorite Gear: Dimond Bikes | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
Last edited by: The GMAN: Oct 8, 18 8:18
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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I live in Tampa and am from Panama City. This storm is a fast mover. I'm not worried about either the Hurricane or Red Tide effecting the race on 3 Nov.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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HuffNPuff wrote:
I live in Tampa and am from Panama City. This storm is a fast mover. I'm not worried about either the Hurricane or Red Tide effecting the race on 3 Nov.

Thanks for this, always nice to hear this from people in the area, sets a lot of my concerns at ease.

Appreciate it!

-Mike
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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This.. Forget about the hurricane, you should be worried about red tide... That stuff is nasty. We've been getting it in South FL too for the past two weeks and beaches are closed down. We had a kids b-day party at the beach last weekend and everyone was coughing.


triguy86 wrote:
It should also be mentioned that the Panama City/30A area has been dealing with a "red tide" event for like 2 months now. I was in PCB on vacation 2 weeks ago although further West of Boardwalk and there were piles of dead fish and eels all over the beach. The water was super brown in the afternoon but clear in the mornings. It affects everyone differently and it caused me to hack and cough like crazy. Also irritated my skin. Just wanted to make you aware.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [cestmoi] [ In reply to ]
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Agree. I was just down there spectating/sitting on the beach for a few days and it had me hacking constantly. I thought I might be getting sick but then a friend told me he was dealing with the same thing.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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The hurricane, the red tide and all the effects will be long passed by the IM. I live down here so I know.

Panama City is to the West of the storm so it will get the least of the force of the storm. It will also only take a few days, maybe 2 weeks to clean up from a fast moving storm like this.

The worry for IMFL would be the random cold fronts that come through during those times of the year. Those heavy winds can whip the gulf up in a hurry.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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I am in Pensacola but have been that way recently. Red tide is bad, like real bad, right now from Destin on east to Panama City. I think that will be more of an issue that the hurricane. Although, with the hurricane its supposed to cool off drastically (finally) at the end of the week and the combination of that and the storm could alleviate some of the red tide. So, you may get lucky! I don't think damage 3 weeks out will be significant enough. Just my local(ish) opinion.

Chain Tri Team
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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Hopefully the storms push out the red tide and race day is perfect. I was there last year and the weather was just a little warm of ideal.

Enjoy the journey, the day and the accomplishment. Best wishes
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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At any day over the last couple years you could visit PCB and say, "Wow, that storm really fucked this place up". But then when you really focus you realize it's just the local construction that is never ending.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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The bad news is that it's headed more or less straight at Panama City. Panama City Beach is a few miles west, on the "good" side, but too close for comfort.

The good news is that the transition area is somewhat elevated above sea level. They're saying a storm surge of 12 feet, and memory says the transition area is a bit higher than that (at least it seemed higher when I had to retrieve a bag on the beach post-race!). So transition should avoid flooding if the storm is to the east. A fast-moving storm will bring less surge and cause less wind damage. A good chunk of the run course will be underwater, but we're several weeks out and there's plenty of time for cleanup.

Fingers crossed ....


<The Dew Abides>
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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One more thing to watch out for at IMFL:


https://www.al.com/..._chief_arrested.html


<The Dew Abides>
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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You will make yourself crazy trying to predict Gulf Coast weather even 5 days out. It’s too dynamic. A small, unanticipated storm the night before is more likely to can cancel a swim than damage from a Cat 1 storm two weeks prior.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [Sufenta] [ In reply to ]
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Sufenta wrote:
You will make yourself crazy trying to predict Gulf Coast weather even 5 days out. It’s too dynamic. A small, unanticipated storm the night before is more likely to can cancel a swim than damage from a Cat 1 storm two weeks prior.

True! In 2014 it was warm and sunny for two days before the race, race morning it was windy enough to cancel the swim, below freezing and never got above 55 all day, the following days were warm and sunny again.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [MJGuswiler] [ In reply to ]
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They are now predicting 140-150 mph winds when it makes landfall. It's moving quick so it won't be dumping rain for days like a Harvey or Florence but that wind is going to punch the PC/PCB area pretty hard.

2018 Races:
INJURED

Favorite Gear: Dimond Bikes | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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I think many of you are underestimating this storm. It will take 2 weeks in some areas to get the power back on. I dread the day St Petersburg has to go through this.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [Fuller] [ In reply to ]
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Panama City is about to get F'd up, i think everyone is under estimating how much damage and how long it will take to get back to normal..

I hope everyone still gets to race but im sure that is at the bottom of the cities concerns right now

Hard work is faster then aero
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [surfNJmatt] [ In reply to ]
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surfNJmatt wrote:
Panama City is about to get F'd up, i think everyone is under estimating how much damage and how long it will take to get back to normal..

I hope everyone still gets to race but im sure that is at the bottom of the cities concerns right now

When I first posted that I did not expect this to affect the race, Michael was only forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane. Now it is Category 4 and PCB is very close to the bulls-eye. Power will be down for a week or more depending on location and the priority of restoration. But the real issue will be how much water surge damage there is on the PCB hotel infrastructure. E.g., what if the host hotel is taken out? Hotels on the beach side may be closed for weeks or more to make repairs.

It was tough to get up and go to the pool this morning knowing that the race might not happen. But I have my fingers crossed for the residents that their lives and homes are spared.
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Re: IMFL and the Upcoming Weather event [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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HuffNPuff wrote:
surfNJmatt wrote:
Panama City is about to get F'd up, i think everyone is under estimating how much damage and how long it will take to get back to normal..

I hope everyone still gets to race but im sure that is at the bottom of the cities concerns right now


When I first posted that I did not expect this to affect the race, Michael was only forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane. Now it is Category 4 and PCB is very close to the bulls-eye. Power will be down for a week or more depending on location and the priority of restoration. But the real issue will be how much water surge damage there is on the PCB hotel infrastructure. E.g., what if the host hotel is taken out? Hotels on the beach side may be closed for weeks or more to make repairs.

It was tough to get up and go to the pool this morning knowing that the race might not happen. But I have my fingers crossed for the residents that their lives and homes are spared.

Nailed it.
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