Just from personal experience it seemed to be about 46 or 47, then the slide begins. At 55 the slide is faster. After 60, just hang on!

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David
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This is the caveat to your question though, are you talking about someone that reached their peak first in their lives? We have guys like Cameron Brown, or Crowie who kept ripping in their early 40's, and continue to do so in their mid to late 40's too. But they are not on top anymore, but stlll making money and "near" the top.

From the looks of our sport, folks can still do top performances into their late 30's, and good enough ones to be near their bests in early 40's. So if you were absolutely killing it and dominating at the peak of your career, you probably can extend it out like the two previous guys I mentioned earlier have done. In a skill sport like Brady is in, probably can hold on longer. Lots of old bowlers, dart throwers, golfers, etc. They just have to hold their minds together, and the love of the sport they are competing in.

Harriet Anderson and Madonna Buder are pretty impressive.

The faster and more explosive the sport the younger you're going to be. A sport like IM which is neither fast nor explosive older athletes can still do well.
The first thing most older (40+ ) athletes see is a decline in running performance. It seems you can hold onto swimming and cycling performance for longer periods of time.

There is some research showing that doing really hard, short fast efforts can help you hold off the decline a bit. In swimming and cycling this is a lot easier to do. In running I think older athletes don't do short :10-:20 all out efforts very often.

It's not hard to crush a few :10 hills on a bike ride or crush some 25s in the pool.

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I'll weigh in and use the most maddening word. Depends People are right at an explosive sport youth is much more of a factor. Factors depend on injury status, style of play, what the "next generation" looks like, and the direction the game is moving in.

It comes to the forefront today with Brady being in yet another Superbowl. As a Pats fan I appreciate Brady more than anyone but he's had some help to get there this year, some substandard opponents, a shaky Drew Breese, and some rather questionable calls for Green Bay. I mean GB goes zone at the end of the half are we having this conversation today? Because Drew Breese is just one year younger and played just as well this year and no one seems to care about him. He's also a pocket passer QB. And again while amazing it's not quite the same as being a deep threat receiver who relies so much on speed.

It also depends on your view of "the top" I mean Armstrong was 38 when he placed 3rd in the TDF but I don't think many of us were calling him "the top" anymore. Even though 3rd place in the TDF is beyond amazing especially for a 38 year old.

Some players get lucky, and never get injured their whole lives. This is related to style of play too. Brady doesn't take quite as many hits as running style QB's. Lets be honest though at any time any player's career could end with one hit. At Brady's age it's obviously a bigger factor. He separates a shoulder at age 43 that's a whole lot different than if Mahommes did who's only age 25.

Finally I'll end with a factor of what the next generation looks like. We have another Brady-esque player in Patrick Mahommes. If they played in the first/second round do the Chiefs hand him an early exit? If so again are we having this conversation? Because not to take anything away from the guy but it's been a roller coaster season for him. We all watched Phelps win a bunch of medals his final Olympics but what if there was another once in a lifetime athlete right behind him? Would he have had that final great season? It's all speculative of course.

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I still lapped everyone on the couch!

I wouldn't put Rebellin in the same sentence as Brady or Torres.

He no longer competes at the highest level of pro cycling. Looking back over his ProCyclingStats, the last year he did true World Tour events seems to be 2016. He sometimes still lines up next to World Tour guys, e.g. at Italian Nationals. But that's not quite the same thing as Brady in the playoffs or Torres in an Olympics finals. Rebellin ain't gonna make Italy's Olympic team.

 
The wife was a 'late starter' she came into triathlon at 29. She spent her 20's being 'normal' after 10+ years of squad training as a kid. At 37 she'd worked herself upto World No.1 in the rankings / ITU WC Champion, running high 33 / low 34 off the bike regularly.

There was a period back there, around 2013-15 (so around 41-44 years of age) where she could turn up to races and tear it up on very little training, win nationally on 6-10 hours a week from Super Sprint through to Half IM. At 47 it became noticeable that no matter how much she trained....she ran 40+ mins for 10km. Tiredness creeps in, looking after 3 kids, under 9, all on different sleep patterns takes it toll, along with juggling all of the other lifes chores.

45/46 (for her) was when the clock was really noticeable. Everyone is different, it'll depend on all the other inputs into the system.

Cameron Brown just this past weekend PB'd in an event he's been racing for years, albeit so did about 75% of other competitors as they changed the course to a motorway. But it illustrates that there are some amazing performances to be had in the 40's.

Roll on the 50's and see what they bring.

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As Steve pointed out Cam Brown just smashed the Tauranga Half at an age of 48 years young. Some analysis done by David Bowden (cyclenutz) on here suggests that he’d have gone quick even on the “old” course.

Of course it does all depend on lifestyle etc as well. Cam is a professional triathlete and trains 20+ hours a week. For us mere mortals I’d think we’d see similar things to what Steve talks about in regards to Sam who was also a world class athlete.

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Jan is 39, Timothy O'Donnell is 40, Sebastian Kienle is 36, etc.

For IM, decline really starts to set in around 40. These guys aren't racing "fast" though. It's an endurance competition.

For anything shorter, it's a younger athletes game. Even 70.3 is starting to be dominated by the younger guys. You aren't going to see many 35+ folks on the ITU/Superleague circuit.

Ned Overend was pretty dang successful after 40...and even 50!

While Cam did smash it and is an inspiration to this 46 yo, I believe that the men and women started together and Teresa Adam swam and rode with him - while she's an amazing talent - that performance won't make it far in deeper fields. NOW, better test is how he does at IMNZ, where I would suspect his old man strength keeps him closer to the front of the race.

That said - Teresa rode amazingly fast - 2:02? Less than 2 minutes slower than Braden Currie. BLISTERING....

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Frodeno, Alexander and Badmann are the oldest to win Kona at age 38. What's the chance Frodeno or O'Donnell will win this year to become the first 40 or older winner?

There's certainly a difference between the fastest you'll ever be and the fastest you ever could have been. Seems to me the former can be pretty late, depending on when you start working for it.

Team/ball sports are just so different. Most pro sports have a baseline required athleticism depending on size/position, and increased skills can compensate for physical decline until you're below that baseline. At 36 Lebron's still the best basketball player in the world despite being obviously slower/less explosive/etc than ten years ago because 1) his physical peak was so extraordinary to begin with, and 2) skill is more important than athleticism so long as you're athletic enough.

It doesn't seem to me that you can undergo that same shift in endurance sports. You can get savvier, but there's no equivalent to not needing to outjump the next guy because you're so much better at knowing exactly how the ball will come off the rim. You can either hold pace or not.

I'd guess the number will keep getting pushed out as we learn more about recovery?

Was Hugh Hefner still on top?

Dude Lebron is every bit as explosive and even stronger than when he was 23.

NBA is notoriously lax on testing though...

Blake griffin though has lost a lot of high flying

Complex question.

Decreased recoverability and slower adaptations to training almost certainly start before age 25. This doesn't mean that they can't get better, of course. It just means that chronological age becomes a hindrance to performance and training, long before it becomes the thing that pulls people down permanently from their top-level performance.

Fitness improvements continue to be possible for many folks well past 35, especially if they got a late start in endurance sports.

Athletes will have different "potential tops" because of training history. My top level performance in endurance sport will likely happen well after 40. I'm 33 and didn't start endurance training until age 30. Trained exclusively for power and speed, with aggressively, intentionally limited cardio exercise from age 21 to age 30. (T&F, then bobsled). My peak age will probably come at ~45, if I had to guess.

For someone who has trained since puberty or before, for endurance, then peak endurance performance age is likely in late 20's or early 30's. Earlier for running. Later for cycling. For triathlon, probably even later because of technical & experience demands.

As far as how long a person can hold their elite performance ability after their peak age, the answer is:

Longer than you think. And longer than most people do.

Life tradeoffs tend to get to people earlier and more detrimentally to performance, than a lack of ability to hang onto fitness does.

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Dr. Alex Harrison | Founder & CEO | Sport Physiology & Performance PhD
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Stronger yes, obviously. But raw strength is something I don't think anyone contests peaks much later than speed.

As explosive as he was at 23? Not close. Still explosive generally sure.

Also, isn't there some sort of standard against baselessly insinuating PED use?

I'm pretty sure the NBA will call it's drug testing policy lax and they'd have like zero issue with it. They aint in the game of "fair sport"...they are in the entertainment biz with the best basketball players in the world in a private league. They have the strongest players association I believe in sports.

It's the only NA league that doesnt require every player to get tested. It's a capped test number and essentially averages out to 4 in season tests a year and 2 out of season tests a year.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
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https://www.dw.com/en/japans-king-kazu-53-breaks-record-as-oldest-player-in-j-league/a-55034455


japanese soccer play still plays in top japanese league at 53 .

That's awesome!

GOATs can ofcourse longer as on top would just indicate among the best.
Just like Jan is a favorite at age 39 (and even set the Konda record), so even if he declina at age 41 he will still be a top contender.

Dude have you seen Lebronn play now? He’s literally on the Top 10 of most exciting plays nearly every single night he plays AND he’s putting up like the best numbers of his career last year and this year. You don’t make top 10 unless you are high flying and explosive. He’s not making the replays only because of 3-pointers.

And what I stated is fact. The NBA is NOTORIOUSLY bad for PED testing. Notoriously. And at least one coach has gone on the record stating this.

Harvick won 9 times last year at 45.

I guess we will see if 46 is the start of decline.

 

We're pretty far afield from the original topic, but I'm not saying he's not explosive or high-flying. The fact that he still is is exactly my point -- the more explosive you are (or fast, or whatever) the more room you have to decline and still be the best. What you're saying, i.e., he still has the best highlights is exactly what i'm saying. He remains the best player in the league. He's just unquestionably slower, less explosive, and yet skills are making up for that decline, and the very high physical ceiling means that even in decline he's still above most. If you think he's as fast or explosive as he was 13 years ago I think that's a completely indefensible position. That's a very different statement than "he is still fast and explosive."

And I'm not saying the NBA has a strict policy. I'm saying if you write that it has a lax one and follow it with an ellipsis, you are making a specific insinuation you shouldn't without evidence.