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How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack?
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Also besides Sanders is anyone else racing? :)
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [thatzone] [ In reply to ]
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thatzone wrote:
Also besides Sanders is anyone else racing? :)

6 minutes
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [thatzone] [ In reply to ]
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Ashley Horner
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]
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the real question is will he be near Kienle so they can work together to catch the front pack.

Which will be hard if Starky is driving it like he says he will on Twitter.

Will be an interesting first hour on the bike to be sure.

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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [ericMPro] [ In reply to ]
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I don't see any reason that Keinle, Wurf, and Lionel won't be in the same pack in the swim again. No one has shown they have improved enough for the next one up the road, and unless something bad happens to any of them during the swim, it will be natural that a group form around their speed, lots of guys in that zip code.

Of course the order they come out could be influential, if Wurf, then he could be off to the races solo. If I were either of the other two, I would hammer big time from the get go just to see where everyone is at, and then either ease up and wait for a group to form, or keep hammering to get on the train that left the station!!

I would say their gap to the lead swimmer(or very small group) to be about 5+ minutes again, and perhaps 3 or 4 or so to the main lead group. It should set up a lot like last year in that respect, of course conditions could change everything after that. I would not expect to see record bike conditions two years in a row, so some normal crosswind or even extreme winds could change the whole dynamic going into T2..
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I heard he is wearing a snorkel.
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [thatzone] [ In reply to ]
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Same amount of minutes as number of ST threads on him and Kona

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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [ericMPro] [ In reply to ]
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I don't think that Starky will be a concern for anyone. He will either dropout on the run or fade so much he will not be in the top 20 men.


He could set a new course bike record, weather permitting.


.

Once, I was fast. But I got over it.
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [hblake] [ In reply to ]
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He could set a new course bike record, weather permitting. //



That's not gonna happen, he has the huge disadvantage that 3 similar guys are chasing him, and they would not even have to catch him to beat his time. Just like the last time Starky did the race, the uberbikers will catch up, and then he will most likely ride with them, only the swim deficit behind them all..


Chasing in this race is a huge advantage, unless you just get a Moto that won't leave the front and the Marshalls don't react. But that really doesnt happen in Kona..And I would wager there is no new bike course record at all, last years conditions were perfect and top 3 ever for a fast bike, which should help all those guys in the overall. A fast course suits runners, not bikers...
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
I don't see any reason that Keinle, Wurf, and Lionel won't be in the same pack in the swim again. No one has shown they have improved enough for the next one up the road, and unless something bad happens to any of them during the swim, it will be natural that a group form around their speed, lots of guys in that zip code.

Of course the order they come out could be influential, if Wurf, then he could be off to the races solo. If I were either of the other two, I would hammer big time from the get go just to see where everyone is at, and then either ease up and wait for a group to form, or keep hammering to get on the train that left the station!!

I would say their gap to the lead swimmer(or very small group) to be about 5+ minutes again, and perhaps 3 or 4 or so to the main lead group. It should set up a lot like last year in that respect, of course conditions could change everything after that. I would not expect to see record bike conditions two years in a row, so some normal crosswind or even extreme winds could change the whole dynamic going into T2..

Pretty much the above but would add that Josh will be sub 47 minutes based on his 46:53 earlier this year in Frankfurt, been a while we haven't seen

1 – 46’41 (1’13” / average 100m) Lars Jorgensen in 1998.
2 – 46’44 Lars Jorgensen in 1995.
3 – 46’50 Jan Sibbersen in 2003.
4 – 47’01 Noa Sakamoto in 2008.
5 – 47’02 John Flanagan in 2008.
6 – 47’04 Jan Sibbersen in 2004
7- 47'09 Josh Amberger in 2017

First pack really close to 48 minutes flat as they will try to gain as much time possible on the Uber bikers knowning that Jan is not there they
will be no holding back in the swim... last year they saw Kienle and his friends close the gap within 30 miles. They will do their best that it won't
happen until mile 50 or so.

Gap like monty expects in the area's of 5-6 minutes...
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [MTL] [ In reply to ]
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Pretty much the above but would add that Josh will be sub 47 minutes based on his 46:53 earlier this year in Frankfurt, been a while we haven't seen

1 – 46’41 (1’13” / average 100m) Lars Jorgensen in 1998.
2 – 46’44 Lars Jorgensen in 1995.
3 – 46’50 Jan Sibbersen in 2003.
4 – 47’01 Noa Sakamoto in 2008.
5 – 47’02 John Flanagan in 2008.
6 – 47’04 Jan Sibbersen in 2004
7- 47'09 Josh Amberger in 2017

Ya, the old swim times are still holding up, even with the course 200m shorter now than when all these times were swam(Except JOsh's of course)


Frankly it has surprised me that the old record and times have not been broken, just tells you how fast those guys really were. Before Jan dropped out I was of the mind that Josh doesnt get away, I'm still pretty much in that camp as Gomez and a couple others that were not there last year can fill in and jump on his feet. To me watching last year, it was just an oversight that he got away, he lucked out in that Jan's group was very wide from him at the start, and once the merge happened he had a little gap no one wanted to close. Silly mistake by Jan really, from the minute he was behind at the end it would have been very easy to have just sat on Josh's feet. Certainly there is well over a minute of draft affect in the entire Kona swim course...
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [thatzone] [ In reply to ]
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thatzone wrote:
Also besides Sanders is anyone else racing? :)

These Lionel Sanders references are just as tedious and unfunny as the Dean Farris references in SwimSwam.com
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [JMike] [ In reply to ]
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Uber bikers

Kienle
Sanders
Wurf
Starky

Wurf & Starky are a non factor in the RACE.
I hope they let Wurf and Starky go..

I'm also interested in Lange vs Gomez. Both will sit in the pack and should get off their bikes together. Maybe some potential there to run Kienle and Sanders down?
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [thatzone] [ In reply to ]
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I really don't get why everyone considers Wurf to be a non factor, I mean he has run sub 3 several times this year as well as 2:52 a few weeks ago. I think Wurf goes 8:0x this year.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [thatzone] [ In reply to ]
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Last year the deficit was 5 minutes. With the addition of Gomez and others knowing how last year played out with Wurf, Sebi, and Lionel riding together to catch the pack, I'm predicting the swim will be a higher pace at the front and deficit will be 6 minutes.

blog
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [stevej] [ In reply to ]
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stevej wrote:
Last year the deficit was 5 minutes. With the addition of Gomez and others knowing how last year played out with Wurf, Sebi, and Lionel riding together to catch the pack, I'm predicting the swim will be a higher pace at the front and deficit will be 6 minutes.

You are correct. Swim will be faster pace which is perfect. It means that Wurf, Lionel, Sebi get dropped and then they swim at their controlled pace. Meanwhile everyone else other than Josh/Starky/Gomez and a few others, totally burn a zillion matches in the swim where they can't see their power meter, but are gradually emptying their glycogen. Halfway to Hawi they are cramping and dropping off because of the over hot swim pace. This should play in nicely into the hands of the trailing uber bike train.

If you look at the times that MTL wrote down above in this thread, it has been ALMOST NEVER that the Kona winner comes out of the 48 min swim time zone. It could be that in the past, the guys who won were just shitty swimmers, but I don't think Dave Scott was actually that bad a swimmer. Him or Mark Allen or the subsequent group of winners did not feel like they needed to burn matches in the swim at the wrong time in the day.

The best thing that Lionel/Sebi/Cam can do is just pace the swim at a steady pace, not worry at all about gap and then just listen to the '"team captain" Sebi on how to pace the bike ride and not over cook it until they pass Kawaihai on the way back. The gap to the swim front group is almost meaningless. It will be what it will be. These guys can't magically change swim form or fitness in the next 3.5 weeks. Their best chance is just do a steady 3.8K+180K steady TTT. Let the 48 min swim group burn matches lilke idiots racing surgy in the swim and early bike in fear of them and then watch them drop off like flies while they just cruise at iso power all day. Seriously, if these guys check in with Mark Allen or even Norman Stadler, they will get the right guidance.....don't worry about the 48 min swim squad. Just swim and ride steady to T2, take in 500 cals per hour and keep your heart rate sub 130 bpm (OK, that's probably a stupid Mark Allen urban legend, but maybe high 300 cals per hour and keep heart rate sub 140)

Dev
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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oscaro wrote:
I really don't get why everyone considers Wurf to be a non factor, I mean he has run sub 3 several times this year as well as 2:52 a few weeks ago. I think Wurf goes 8:0x this year.

I happen to strongly agree.
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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oscaro wrote:
I really don't get why everyone considers Wurf to be a non factor, I mean he has run sub 3 several times this year as well as 2:52 a few weeks ago. I think Wurf goes 8:0x this year.

Wurf will have a swim deficit to Starky & Amberger.

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
stevej wrote:
Last year the deficit was 5 minutes. With the addition of Gomez and others knowing how last year played out with Wurf, Sebi, and Lionel riding together to catch the pack, I'm predicting the swim will be a higher pace at the front and deficit will be 6 minutes.


You are correct. Swim will be faster pace which is perfect. It means that Wurf, Lionel, Sebi get dropped and then they swim at their controlled pace. Meanwhile everyone else other than Josh/Starky/Gomez and a few others, totally burn a zillion matches in the swim where they can't see their power meter, but are gradually emptying their glycogen. Halfway to Hawi they are cramping and dropping off because of the over hot swim pace. This should play in nicely into the hands of the trailing uber bike train.

If you look at the times that MTL wrote down above in this thread, it has been ALMOST NEVER that the Kona winner comes out of the 48 min swim time zone. It could be that in the past, the guys who won were just shitty swimmers, but I don't think Dave Scott was actually that bad a swimmer. Him or Mark Allen or the subsequent group of winners did not feel like they needed to burn matches in the swim at the wrong time in the day.

The best thing that Lionel/Sebi/Cam can do is just pace the swim at a steady pace, not worry at all about gap and then just listen to the '"team captain" Sebi on how to pace the bike ride and not over cook it until they pass Kawaihai on the way back. The gap to the swim front group is almost meaningless. It will be what it will be. These guys can't magically change swim form or fitness in the next 3.5 weeks. Their best chance is just do a steady 3.8K+180K steady TTT. Let the 48 min swim group burn matches lilke idiots racing surgy in the swim and early bike in fear of them and then watch them drop off like flies while they just cruise at iso power all day. Seriously, if these guys check in with Mark Allen or even Norman Stadler, they will get the right guidance.....don't worry about the 48 min swim squad. Just swim and ride steady to T2, take in 500 cals per hour and keep your heart rate sub 130 bpm (OK, that's probably a stupid Mark Allen urban legend, but maybe high 300 cals per hour and keep heart rate sub 140)

Dev

This is why I like Gomez so much. He can cruise along in that 48-50 minute front group without burning too many matches, and he won't waste a ton of energy on the bike trying to maintain a gap. Ride steady and wait for the train, latch onto that or even spot them a few minutes. And then the run comes....

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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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That 2:52 was short like a half mile so more in the range of 2:55. Still really great progress but a huge difference when it comes to trying to win Kona.

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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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Right, Dev is making it sound like those 48 minute guys are just swimming harder, but that’s not the case. Gomez, Amberger, etc can cruise that swim in 48 mins, just like the cyclist can cruise it at 55 minutes and not burn matches. It’s not difficult for those guys to swim that pace, so not sure as to why they are burning matches?

—meant to respond to Dev.

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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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JasoninHalifax wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
stevej wrote:
Last year the deficit was 5 minutes. With the addition of Gomez and others knowing how last year played out with Wurf, Sebi, and Lionel riding together to catch the pack, I'm predicting the swim will be a higher pace at the front and deficit will be 6 minutes.


You are correct. Swim will be faster pace which is perfect. It means that Wurf, Lionel, Sebi get dropped and then they swim at their controlled pace. Meanwhile everyone else other than Josh/Starky/Gomez and a few others, totally burn a zillion matches in the swim where they can't see their power meter, but are gradually emptying their glycogen. Halfway to Hawi they are cramping and dropping off because of the over hot swim pace. This should play in nicely into the hands of the trailing uber bike train.

If you look at the times that MTL wrote down above in this thread, it has been ALMOST NEVER that the Kona winner comes out of the 48 min swim time zone. It could be that in the past, the guys who won were just shitty swimmers, but I don't think Dave Scott was actually that bad a swimmer. Him or Mark Allen or the subsequent group of winners did not feel like they needed to burn matches in the swim at the wrong time in the day.

The best thing that Lionel/Sebi/Cam can do is just pace the swim at a steady pace, not worry at all about gap and then just listen to the '"team captain" Sebi on how to pace the bike ride and not over cook it until they pass Kawaihai on the way back. The gap to the swim front group is almost meaningless. It will be what it will be. These guys can't magically change swim form or fitness in the next 3.5 weeks. Their best chance is just do a steady 3.8K+180K steady TTT. Let the 48 min swim group burn matches lilke idiots racing surgy in the swim and early bike in fear of them and then watch them drop off like flies while they just cruise at iso power all day. Seriously, if these guys check in with Mark Allen or even Norman Stadler, they will get the right guidance.....don't worry about the 48 min swim squad. Just swim and ride steady to T2, take in 500 cals per hour and keep your heart rate sub 130 bpm (OK, that's probably a stupid Mark Allen urban legend, but maybe high 300 cals per hour and keep heart rate sub 140)

Dev


This is why I like Gomez so much. He can cruise along in that 48-50 minute front group without burning too many matches, and he won't waste a ton of energy on the bike trying to maintain a gap. Ride steady and wait for the train, latch onto that or even spot them a few minutes. And then the run comes....

Gomez cruising at 48-50 range is like Mark Allen crusing at 51-52 leaving these guys full tanks for the bike. The uberbike train, can hopefully cruise all day doing a slower swim, but a way faster bike. They should not panic and race to Hawi. They just need one hard surge when they pass Lange+Gomez. This is the only surge the uberbike crew needs to put down in the first 5.5 hours of racing. And as you said, Gomez will do exactly the same. No surges for him till he runs up Palani on mile 10 and gets out on the QueenK for the final 16 miles of runninng.
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [jsaunders] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe, but if he matches his swim and bike splits from last year and then runs a 2:55 he would pretty much equal Lange’s result so either way as long as he runs around a 3h marathon he is a contender.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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I hear you. If he does in fact run close to 2:52, he'll be on the podium.

https://www.strava.com/athletes/4391866

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Re: How many minutes will Lionel Sanders be back from front pack? [MTL] [ In reply to ]
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I really like to watch swim portion of these races... I think last year they added the number marked on swim caps to help a little bit following the live race... how difficult would it be to have spotters at 500m-1000m-1500m-half-way and 3000m to provide real splits.

I don't want to go the expensive route where the technology already exist to have a full accurate split going under a floating arch,
weather waves, ensuring everyone goes under this tight arch etc... not a good investment and money spent but...

It could be fun to extrapolate the time they would go by these spotters... we would know the gaps, also could calculate the pace, and maybe estimate
completion time of the swim...

Yeah, I know it's too much to ask.. but if we don't it won't happen. Andrew Messick if you reading this... ;)

At least, it would give Michael, Dede and Greg more to speak on the Facebook Ironman now channel during the swim...
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