Let's be honest here. There's zero chance this race happens. Outdoor sports are currently limited to 50 people and that includes participants and non-participants. This was from the recent emergency proclamation that was just extended until June 10th (Emergency Rule #14). So a June 5th race isn't happening. Unless I'm misreading something. This doesn't even factor in trying to get a special events permit.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Something like 70% of the adult population will have had at least 1 dose, something like 55-60% of adults will be fully vaccinated by June 5th. If that many people in the country decide they even want it, which I really hope they do. After everyone who wants a vaccine has one, what else is there left for us to do?

Cases in the country are in the decline - even Michigan seems to have turned around, despite people in most places beginning to act like the pandemic does not exist. The 7 day average of deaths in Hawaii has been oscillating between 0 and 1 for weeks. Those numbers *should* be significantly better 6 weeks from now.

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
Instagram • Facebook

I concur with GMAN. Honu is possible, but not probable.

1. Hawaii is one of the most restrictive states regarding Covid interventions
2. Hawaii has the lowest death rate in the US (fantastic)
   
3. Hawaii has the lowest case rate in the US (fantastic)
4. Hawaii is 10th in the US for vaccine rollout (pretty good)

Hawaii's objective Covid metrics are excellent (probably the best in the US when considered in total). But, the politics of restrictions will probably win out and kill the race.

Yes, but there's a literal amended executive order signed by both the Governor and Mayor of Hawaii just a few days ago that extended the restrictions until June 10th.

We can debate numbers all day long (and I agree with you) but I don't see the Governor or Mayor rescinding the order they just signed. They might not sign another extension to the order (I believe the one just signed was the second extension of an existing order) but I cannot see them ending it early. There's really no precedent for that even in far more conservative states like FL or TX.

Gotta be pragmatic here. Race isn't happening.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Well, I’m a local and have limited insider knowledge. What I do know is that they are organizing around the event happening - there are calls for volunteers, permits are being filed/negotiated, and in general we’ve had significant visitor numbers (spring break here was massive) without upticks in case numbers.

That being said, my understanding is that they do not yet have the permits, and there are multiple agencies to deal with - not just Hawaii County for the roads, Mauna Lani Resort for T2/run (that won’t be a problem, most likely), and, likely the most problematic, DLNR (Department of Land and Natural Resources), which oversees Hapuna State Recreation Area, site of the swim and T1. Despite the fact that Hapuna gets many beachgoers every day, it’s a matter of how they view the “large gathering”, despite Ironman’s distancing protocols tested in other races.

We’re hoping it happens, but I guess we’ll see.

Regarding vaccination rates, you really have to look island by island. They’re harder to get on crowded Oahu, but I got my second shot yesterday at the Kona Aquatic Center vax clinic, and anyone could basically walk up and get in. The point is that if you want one here, you can get one.

Ian

Yes, I work for the state and see the city/county permits as what are going to be the most difficult processes out of everything. Permits are just hard to come by at this time. That being said, each county is different in what they are allowing at the moment. Honolulu County is set for adult outdoor sports leagues to resume April 19. That said this event is six weeks out and anything can happen. I don't see anything on the race's webpage so maybe Ironman is holding out and hoping that they can obtain these permits.

Some positive news is that Governor Ige announced fully unrestricted interisland travel yesterday, starting May 11, 2021, for all state residents that have been fully vaccinated for 14 days or more. The press release is below:


Unrestricted Inter-island Travel for People Fully Vaccinated in Hawai‘i to Begin May 11
Governor Ige announced this afternoon that people who have been fully vaccinated in Hawai‘i can resume inter-county travel without COVID-19 testing and quarantine. The exception is for people who have received vaccines, two weeks after their last recommended dose.

“We made the decision to start with an inter-county travel program for those vaccinated in the State of Hawai‘i, because we are able to verify the information. This phased approach will allow us to assess the impacts of the program to our pre-departure document check program and screening procedures. Most importantly, we’ll be able to assess any impact to our virus transmission rates and healthcare facilities. As always, our number one priority is the health and safety of Hawai‘i’s people,” said Gov. Ige.

Work is underway to develop a validation process for travelers who received vaccinations outside of Hawai‘i. Once this process is in operation, the state plans to expand the vaccine exception to include travelers from the continental U.S. and Alaska. “We continue to work with several companies, and I believe solutions that provide the same assurance of integrity for domestic and international travel are forthcoming,” Governor Ige said.

Until then, domestic trans-Pacific travelers can avoid mandatory travel quarantine by following the Safe Travels Hawai‘i pre-test program requirements. “The sooner we move to herd immunity, the sooner we can get to a new accepted norm and sunset the Safe Travels Hawai‘i program altogether,” Governor Ige concluded.



The website we use to monitor and track cases, vaccinations, etc. is: https://health.hawaii.gov/...situation-in-hawaii/

I missed the Ige announcement yesterday - I was napping after my second shot. :-)

That’s super news - back to island hopping!

Ian

I also live on the Big Island, but don't have much inside information. However, I have heard that they designed a new single transition race course. This could mean that they moved the swim to a location where permits are easier to obtain. All of the Covid stats are good here, but the only thing that matters is the governing bodies allowing these types of activities. If it does happen and you are coming from out-of-state, you will need a negative test within 72 hours of arrival to avoid the mandatory 14 day quarantine. They might amend the rule to allow vaccinated passengers to avoid the quarantine, but it hasn't happened yet and I don't expect it before June.

That’s a pretty compelling rumor - always hated the two transition areas. If they were going to do that, my guess is that the swim would be in A-Bay, then head out on the bike south on the Queen K, u-turn somewhere and go north to another u-turn before ending up back in Waikoloa for T2. Then use some multi-loop variant of the Lavaman course.

A couple of us locals did “Honu on our own-u” on what should have been race day last year, and we transitioned to the run in the parking lot of Hapuna. There aren’t any non-brutal running options from there, not that the traditional Honu run isn’t brutal. :-)

Ian

They could also just go north from either end of Waikoloa Beach Drive and maybe turn around in Hawi instead of at the Upolo Airport access. Using the north WBD intx would add some distance and could cut down in traffic conflicts to WBR and WV.

One thing going against A’Bay is the local water/sewer utility just kicked off a sewer force main relocation this past Monday that spans the A’Bay intx. with WBD. It is scheduled for completion in early June and you know how HI construction goes. It is Goodfellow Brothers doing the work which will help keep this on schedule. The plan is to maintain a single lane thru the construction, but it seems like counting on construction completion or coordination for an A’Bay swim/transition would just add even more complication to a difficult situation.

True, that's a great idea for the bike course. I didn't know about the A-Bay sewer stuff - ewww. I mainly swim Mauna Kea and Hapuna since I live north of Kawaihae; also, A-Bay often has reduced visibility. The big problem is where do you have a big enough parking lot for transition? Hapuna, obviously, and you have the option in the Fairmont, but the beach entry there isn't great.

I guess we'll see!
Ian

Thanks GMAN and +1 on all this.

My mom has been following everything in hopes I can come home to visit and she's pretty much counted it out at this point.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Guys that live there are mentioning rumors and changes that could make the race happen but I don’t see how any of that gets around the Governor and Mayor’s order that limits events like this to 50 total people (athletes +non-athletes). This seems pretty binary to me. “Will the total number of athletes, volunteers, race staff, and spectators exceed 50? If yes, the event is not allowed.” Inter-island travel and moving transitions and all that doesn’t really mean anything in this regard.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I think that Hawaii is an interesting case study on general reopening sentiments. The more restrictive states have had a historical pattern over the past 15 months of continuing escalations. As you noted, there have been very few retractions. At some point, Hawaii will have to make that decision to allow more activities. That will be a good general indication of overall attitude toward resuming normalcy.

A friend of mine commented that his date of normalcy is when NYC opens Broadway. (Not this soft September date, but a hard date when everyone trusts that the shows really will resume.)

Not sure if it is directly relevant to this, but I just got an email that Xterra Worlds has been moved from October 31st to December 5th.

Just got this email from the race director:

Event Update

Aloha Edward,

Time is flying! Can you believe we are less than 7 weeks away from race day? We are excited to host and welcome you to our beautiful Island of Hawai`i.

We know you have been training hard, balancing `ohana, life, and work to get to the start line. Our team has been working diligently in the preparations to host you at the 2021 IRONMAN 70.3 Hawai`i (Honu) held on the magical Kohala Coast.

As we prepare, we are motivated by each of you and we look forward to seeing you on the starting line at Honu. Some insight to our preparations:

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  We continue to work closely with our local agencies and community as we plan for a safe event.
  
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  We are meeting daily as we plan our venue experience following our best practices and our Safe Return to Racing guidelines.
  
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  Exciting new course and venue announcements are coming soon.
  
• 
  The Fairmont Orchid Hawai`i `ohana, your host hotel, is eager to greet you and welcome you home.
  
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  The 2021 Athlete Guide is undergoing edits and will be available on the website 4-6 weeks prior to race day.
  
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  We have set up a time slot reservation system for athlete check-in, reservations will open two weeks prior to race day.
  
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  150 qualifying slots will be allocated to the 2021 Intermountain Healthcare IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship presented by Utah Sports Commission in St. George, Utah, USA.
  
• 
  30 qualifying slots will be allocated to Age Group athletes for the 2021 Supersapiens IRONMAN World Championship in Kailua-Kona, Hawai`i.
  
• 
  24 qualifying slots will be allocated to Hawai`i State Residents for the 2021 Supersapiens IRONMAN World Championship in Kailua-Kona, Hawai`i.
  

We welcome you to embrace the uniqueness of this year’s event. Although it may feel different if you’ve raced with us before, the aloha shared will be the same.

Dan Gampon
Race Director
IRONMAN 70.3 Hawai`i

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
Instagram • Facebook

And Maui (different county than the big island) is actually instituting more restrictive measures of a second covid test on arrival in addition to the departure test (I know the big island already does this)

Many HI residents are a little peeved that they can’t have their kids play sports but tourism seems to be booming.

Me too. Just deferred to 2022, as travel to the US is not approved by Canada. More importantly pools have been closed here, and I have not swam in over a year. I am very happy that Ironman has provided me this opportunity to defer. I was not anticipating this option and very much appreciate it, as I had purchased a community spot, so it was about $1,000 Canadian.

As of April 12...

"Outdoor organized sports are now allowed to begin as part of Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi’s revised Tier 3 guidelines. This includes baseball, soccer football, volleyball, basketball and other similar sports.
Leagues are allowed to begin, but they will need a permit from the city.
The move has many youth leagues on the island gearing up for a brand new season while trying to follow the mayor’s new set of rules."

Also, out in areas like Nanakuli the youth football leagues have been in full force. Kind of like 7v7 leagues where there are large crowds of teams, families, and spectators. Youth sports is going strong in Oahu. Yes i understand that is a different county and different set of rules.

Bolded. You are going to be disappointed.

Pandemic will continue, new variants will emerge because longer pandemic means more mutations will occur. If the vaccine is ineffective against the new variants WE ALL vaccinated and unvaccinated alike, those who had covid and those who never did alike, we all will get to repeat 2020 and 2021. All because some simple folk got lied to hard by charlatans and grifters.

I met Race Director Dan after swimming at the Kona pier recently. He was still very positive about the race happening. He said that everyone involved was actively working on it, and that they hadn't received any "no's" yet.

Today's new update did mention a new venue/course, so they are clearly doing what they can to get approvals and to be safe. Finger's Crossed!

Except that there is an out if they want to grant permission- from the order- "Under the supervision of professional planners or venues, or a responsible business or person, business, events or gatherings otherwise prohibited by Section C or Exhibit 5 (collectively “events”), events may seek approval for events otherwise prohibited by Rule C and Exhibit 5 upon approval of the Mayor. The intention of this request procedure is to allow limited supervised types of events which can be held safely. A request shall be submitted to https://coronavirus-response-county-of-hawaii-hawaiicountygis.hub.arcgis.com/ at least thirty (30) days before the proposed event" So hopefully Ironman can pitch a safety plan that works and we'll all get to race after all...

Thanks for that!

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
Instagram • Facebook

New swim course announced. Is at the beach at the Fairmont Orchid.

Not as cool as Hapuna but more convenient. Should make permitting easier.

https://www.ironman.com/...xyIgNSt0aJbqxJOizDhA

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
Instagram • Facebook