I know running shoes are highly individualized and it can be hard to offer advice. If it helps, I aim to run the marathon portion in the 3:40s. I'm relatively light (~140 lbs/ 64 kg) and typically run in the Asics Gel Kayano or GT 2000. While I want a fast shoe, I'll sacrifice speed for comfort and stability that keeps me injury free. If the race were tomorrow, I'd run in the GT 2000s.
According to the Triathlete Magazine review (linked below), the Hoka's are more appropriate for Ironman races when your legs are tired right from the start. Based on that review, Hoka is the way to go. Other reviews are mixed. Some reviews warn that the Hoka is not good for heel strikers, which I am. However, the Triathlete magazine review makes that same claim for the Nikes.
I appreciate any thoughts you have.