Your training should most likely dictate your strategy. Ideally you would have already planned your strategy and it would be something you have practiced/incorporated into your training, especially your long runs.

I would HIGHLY advise against "planning" any positive split or trying to calculate for slowdown. If you go out harder in the beginning or faster than goal pace trying to account for slowdown you will likely explode and make it one tough day on yourself. Even pacing is often the best or safest strategy. Planning for a negative split can be difficult, as there is no telling how you will feel in the later stages of the race or if everything will go as planned. Also, it can be difficult to decide when to make a move, when to speed up, or how much to speed up. Often, it becomes a too much too soon situation and runners will find themselves back at the blow up scenario.

Not sure exactly how much under you're looking but trying to stay around 6:48 would get you around 2:58 and some change, should give you a little bit of leeway but be conservative enough considering the sub 3 goal that the pace wouldn't be too fast to a point where you'd pay for it as long as your fitness is realistically at the sub 3 level.

Really though if you have trained yourself properly for this goal it should come down to how you have prepared yourself, and what strategy you prepared yourself for. Good Luck, relax, stay in composure (mentally) during the race, as relaxed as possible. Hay is in the barn at this point as they say!

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anything you plan should be fairly close to even effort for the first 20-ish miles. so basically, even splitting but give yourself some slack if there's a mile with a lot of climbing.

also helps to think about what your goal really is. meaning, is it 'i want to run the fastest marathon i can, and i hope that's under 3 hours'? or is it, 'i want to break 3 hours and if i can't do that then i don't care how long it takes'? with strategy 2 you can be a little more aggressive...

I've hit all my training runs and have held marathon pace + 10 seconds through 20 miles feeling pretty good.

My speed and interval work has also went really well. Now its about trusting in the abilities and getting the job done.

My last marathon was Boston in 2011 and I went 3:08 with a negative split and more in the tank. Since I've bounced to Ironman so have trained differently.

I like the even pacing strategy! Get to 20 and hammer out the last 6!

I would agree with some of the others comments to avoid building in a "cushion". As grandma's is a net downhill race, allow that to play in your favor. You have 2 small "rises" at 21 and 24, but by that time you should know if you are on plan. If you even split it for 258 my bigger concern for you would be your nutrition/hydration plan to be spot on. Last year was a wet race and they have had hot races, so you can have some swings up there. Good amount of folks us this race for BQ so you should be in good company with your target.

Overall it is a great race in a great community. Good luck and have fun!

There is your answer then. According to this you have trained yourself and your body for an even pace type of run. Altering from that too much is venturing into uncharted territory and brings far too many new variables into the equation.

Be confident (but not cocky), trust yourself and your training. I agree that getting through 20 before making any judgments or moves is a smart decision. I've seen and done the whole make a move at 15-18 before because myself and other runners foolishly thought we "beat" the marathon, only to pay for it greatly a few miles later.

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How did the race go? What strategy did you use and how did it play out?

Race went really well! I set out to negative split by a minute or two and ended up even splitting with a 3:00:29 … goal was sub 3 hrs and didn't have the kick to do it the last 5k. (That 29 seconds haunts me)

Like any other race...majority of the field goes out to fast. Run YOUR race and let the day come to you. Run the tangents and if hot find shade where you can early. Soak up the view of the lake.

I really enjoyed this race and will do it again!

Cheers!

 

Grandma's is flat and fast. Point to point but the last 3 miles drag around town until you get to the harbor. Plenty of good pace groups there.

I would get in the 3:05 group and get halfway without having to think. Just follow the person holding the 3:05 sign. Halfway, gut check and make a decision to go negative.

Awesome info, glad to hear it went so well for you!. ’m not quite sure I’m there yet for a 3:05 pace group. I ran 3:30:51 with - decent neg split at Twin Cities Marathon 6 months ago. (1:47:37 first half 1:43:14 2nd half) TCM has a rep for more challenging 2nd half so on a flat course this could have been a wider spread. I have since increased mileage and added speedwork and I’m nailing interval paces pretty easily training for a 3:20. Just finished a 10 mile race at 6:54, went with 7 min pace group til final 2ish miles and averaged 6:30 after I left the pacer. I’m thinking 3:15 is possible for Grandma’s and go for 3:00-3:05 this fall. Thanks again for the info!

Are there Pace Teams?
Yes. We have experienced Pace Teams keeping you on track to reach your goal. Pacers will pace following times for Grandma’s Marathon: 3:00, 3:10, 3:20, 3:30, 3:40, 3:50, 4:00, 4:05, 4:20, 4:35, 4:50, 5:00, 5:30, 6:00.
Pacers will pace the following times for the Garry Bjorklund Half Marathon: 1:30, 1:40, 1:50, 2:00, 2:10, 2:20, 2:30 and 2:45.
Click here for more info on the Pace Teams.
https://grandmasmarathon.com/pace-team/