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Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week
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ITU World Champs in Gold Coast Ready To Go


For the third time in ITU's history, the sport has come to Gold Coast Australia. While there are many more high-rise apartments on the iconic Gold Coast Beach then when Miles Stewart and Joanne Ritchie won in 1991, the place is still spectacular. Everything you think you would see in Australia. Hundreds of surfers and youth-life-saving athletes on the beach every afternoon when school lets out.

Using the same basic footprint that was employed in April for the Commonwealth Games, the town has left up many of the signs and mascots from their very successful 2018 Commonwealth Games.

Sitting just 500m from the race venue is the Commonwealth Games Pool Centre. Five different pools. 2 x 50m pools, 2x25m outdoor pools and an indoor teaching pool.

A lot of interesting questions to be answered in the next few days. While Mario Mola's World Championship title is expected, the question is whether a small group can get away and stay away from Mario and the chase group. With A very motivated Ali Brownlee in the elite field, things could be interesting. Henri Schoeman is healthy & motivated to get away with a 4-6 man group that does not include Mola. You could see a Vincent Luis, Jonny & Ali Brownlee, Henri Schoeman (plus 1 or 2 others like Tyler Mislawchuk) motivated breakaway. With a chase group of Mola, Birtwhistle, Murray, Alarza & company chasing them on the bike, we could see another epic run for the title this weekend. The weather is going to be near perfect and big crowds are expected.

Anytime Ali Brownlee is in a race, he is a game changer. The sport's greatest swim-biker is healthy and the real question is how much fatigue he has in his legs from the 70.3 World Champs.


In the women's race, Katie Zafares could win the world championship without ever winning a race in 2018. She has been uber consistent and her incredible swimming allows her to be in the thick of the battle right from the start. With Flora Duffy not racing, the real question is whether 4-5 women are able to get away and stay away on the bike. Expect Jessica Learmonth, Katie Zaferes, Kristen Kasper, Summer Cook and 1-2 others trying to stay ahead of the British women (Stimpson, Holland, Taylor-Brown and Stanford). This race is pretty much a USA vs GB battle with a Gentle, Klamer and Linderman trying to steal a podium from those two countries.


The women's under 23 might be the stellar race of the weekend. If you haven't seen or heard of France's Cassandra Beaugrand remember her name. She is the next rock star of the elite women's circuit. She could be fighting it out for a top 8 in the elite women's race, but instead is going after a world championship title for France. She has no real weakness and right now is running incredibly fast. Her French team-mate and 2018 World Cup Winner Sandra Dodet could be fighting it out for the victory. 2x World Junior Champion Taylor Knibb has shown incredible fitness this year as she moves into the under 23 category. The bike course may not be tough enough for Taylor. Knibb's American team-mate and past World Champion Tamara Gorman will give the USA a great 1-2 punch against the French superstars. Last year's junior medalist Fuka Sega from Japan will challenge for the overall win.

The men's under 23 world champs has young Seth Rider as a legit threat. For Seth to have a chance he needs a 3-4 man break away out of the swim. Seth is a stud swim-biker and along with France's Leo Bergere and New Zealand's Tayler Reid there is a very real chance to see a small front end break away. Just two weeks ago Canada's Charles Paquet was in a break way with the Norwegian boys in the Montreal WTS Race.


Junior racing is always a crap shoot. So many talented, overly amped up young athletes, often lead to unexpected victories. None the less, the Europeans are now a consistent legitimate threat for a majority of the top 10 spots. With so many European Junior Races, and the French Grand Prix Series for the European youth, expect their race experience to show through.

The age group racing (Sprint & Olympic) will be very competitive. The Aussies have a huge team, and along with the nearby Kiwis, expect the majority of the age group medals to be split up between Australia, USA, Great Britain and New Zealand. Some former ITU pros are now back racing in the age group categories (Michelle Dillon is one of those who are now in the 45 category and looking very fit).

The world's best para-triathletes are in town and each year the depth and level of racing improves. We are expecting some fantastic racing from these great athletes.

ITU congress has occurred and the 2021 World Champs (Bermuda) and 2022 World Champs (Abu Dhabi) have been decided. With Lausanne in 2019 and Edmonton 2020 the best triathletes in the world know where they will be racing for the next four years.
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [coachbarrie] [ In reply to ]
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Hi Barrie,
Looking forward to watching the races on triathlonlive.tv. Would be even greater if the junior worlds were broadcasted too!
Cheers!
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [Diabolo] [ In reply to ]
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The generally have a finishing line camera & live-data updates over the mats for the non-televised races.
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [coachbarrie] [ In reply to ]
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This is literally going to be a very exciting weekend!

Ali’s goals are likely to domestique for Johnny and to maybe get some Olympic points, right? Even if a group gets away (more likely with him there) I have a hard time seeing him outrun everyone.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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People who have never been in an Ali pack (and that is most of us) don't appreciate how hard he bikes. You saw that at 70.3 World where he and Jan were the two major instigators on the 90k bike (and then still ran well). Ali will find a few bodies to hammer on the bike and hope to get away and stay away. Few men in the world, can run as well, with fatigued legs as Ali can. His best hopes for a race podium for he (or his brother) is to have a small break away group put 75 sec into the Mola chase group and see if they can hang on. The way Mario ran in Montreal no lead maybe big enough. None the less, Ali didn't come to Australia direct from South Africa to sit in a bike pack. He will push the pace.
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [coachbarrie] [ In reply to ]
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coachbarrie wrote:
People who have never been in an Ali pack (and that is most of us) don't appreciate how hard he bikes. You saw that at 70.3 World where he and Jan were the two major instigators on the 90k bike (and then still ran well). Ali will find a few bodies to hammer on the bike and hope to get away and stay away. Few men in the world, can run as well, with fatigued legs as Ali can. His best hopes for a race podium for he (or his brother) is to have a small break away group put 75 sec into the Mola chase group and see if they can hang on. The way Mario ran in Montreal no lead maybe big enough. None the less, Ali didn't come to Australia direct from South Africa to sit in a bike pack. He will push the pace.

I'd say the Norwegian guys are a good pick for a breakaway too (Blummenfelt and Iden - though Iden is probably to far back out of the water) - whats Your take on this? How is the bike course profile?

Will be watching live:)
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [lovegoat] [ In reply to ]
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Hi Barrie

Do you know if there was any venue decision on the new World Sprint champs debuting in 2021? My understanding was that the hosts for that would be announced this week.
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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Agree, this looks to be a really great race for both the men and women. Your comment on Ali possibly going for Olympic points is spot on, as I think he wants that as an option if his long course path is too difficult (i.e., injuries). Seems he could work to blow up the bike, and help Johnny get in that group, trying to ensure the runners are left behind. I just don't see Blummenfelt missing that, and he is running really good just now so he is the likely winner if a group gets away, with JB second perhaps.



"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]
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I only wonder if Blum will make the front swim group. Is Varga racing?

Heard an interview with NZ coach Tim Brazier (sp?) - he thought Ali driving the bike would potentially be very helpful for Vincent Luis. Makes sense to me.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [coachbarrie] [ In reply to ]
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If Vickie Holland can correct her navigational issues from Montreal (I won't fault her for the late start, since that was a speaker malfunction on the pontoon, so she may not have heard the horn), I can't see her not winning the series... That said the ladies dynamic will be interesting without Spirig there, nor Flora...

For the men, Mola basically just needs to finish in the top 20 to win the series, so that's boring, but the men's race should be interesting, with Brownlees x2, vincent luis, blummenfelt & schoeman all there... My guess is that the race win comes from a bike break group, Mario runs up and lands just out of the top 5, somewhere in the 6th-8th place range.

In terms of the U23 races, for the ladies, it'll be a duel between Beaugrand and Knibb... My gut says Beaugrand, because the bike course is too easy for Knibb to really stick it to her (Nicole Vander Kaay is an outsider with a shot as well, she's had some brilliant races this season on the WC circuit, and a killer MTR leg...). For the men, it's likely Leo Bergere's to lose, but there are others (like the mentioned Paquet, Reid and Rider who can push him for it). It's hard to bet against the French though, they seem to have a stranglehold on the U23 men's title of late...

I believe the ITU is streaming the Jr. U23 races as well, they have in the past.
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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Same question on Blummenfelt...I can't recall his swimming being at the front, more in the Mola groups just behind (15-25sec). If Luis is fit, he is a threat for sure, but I have not seen him bring it all together in a Olympic distance.



"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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Varga is def racing there, I saw some ridiculous IG videos of him hopping around with the kangaroos... He had some injury issues, but he's had some solid results at the conti-cup/WC level since coming back, so there's no reason to think he doesn't tow a breakaway on the swim, and then get dropped either late in the bike or gobbled on the run...
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]
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Luis put it together at Rotterdam last year - I’d say maybe he’s a big race guy. Then again, Rio was somewhat of a letdown given where he was off the bike. Still, he’s my pick if they come in ahead of Mola.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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I think we're getting an old fashioned Brownlee masterclass (at least till we get to T2) Jonny out runs big bro and so does either Luis, Blum or Mola for 2nd, Ali 3rd.
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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The cream usually rises to the top in the biggest races of the year. The "unknowns" for this race in my mind are:

1. Ali is not at 100% Ali fitness due to some mid-summer injuries and training for the 70.3 Worlds. Now some fatigue racing and travelling from South Africa. Does that have any impact on him being able to control the race the way he often does?

2. The big swim-bike boys, will try to get away and work very hard to stay away from Richard-Mario-Jake-Blum and others. If they can push that gap to 45-60 seconds, it may very well be the difference of keeping Mario off the podium. 63 seconds on Montreal was not enough, but all the horses are here and motivated in that front group. If Mario comes off the bike in a lead pack, the only 2 athletes I see challenging him are Jake and Vincent Luis.

So the elite men are really down to how hard can Ali drive the train up front (assuming he makes the lead pack) and how small can that group be (4-5-6 the perfect number). Now forcing Mario-Richard, Blum and others to do a massive amount of catch up work.


All the women are here shy of Nicola (who is really just getting her Olympic points to get her into Tokyo 2020) and Flora. I expect an epic battle between GB and USA. In the last few years GB has added a few more younger superstars and USA has lost Gwen-Sara (so things are definitely much closer to equal and likely a slight edge to GB on the overall number of women in the top 10 from either federation).
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [coachbarrie] [ In reply to ]
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I was under the impression that Spirig was not racing the WC?

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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She is not. I may have given the wrong impression. She is not here. Nor is Flora. Two women who can change a race's outcome.
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [coachbarrie] [ In reply to ]
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I think Holland is going to win this comfortably, didn't see anyone but Duffy winning this at the start of the season.

I'm no good at maths or understanding ITU complex ranking system, Learnmoth and Taylor Brown are both 3rd/4th in the overalls.

What's it going to take to get a British 1,2,3 overall?
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Under 23s start in a few hours.

U23 Women - seems to be Beaugrand from France will be near the front out of the water and Taylor Knibb will bike up to the her / front pack and make a break, probably solo - question is how much time can she put into a small pack, and will Beaugrand reproduce her amazing run from Germany. Sandra Dodet is also a good runner if she can get up to the bike pack chasing Knibb. My money is on Knibb riding them off her wheel for the win.

U23 Men - more wide open - many of the top 10 guys could take the win on their best day - but Leo Bergere probably a slight favourite - I'll put my money on Bence Bisczak to edge out Bergere. Taylor Reid of NZ for 3rd.

Who ya got?

Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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In also taking Knibb. I think if Coldwell was in the race then maybe Beaugrand would have a bigger lead out of the water and the bike catch later and could then contain a manageable gap to Knibb. As it is I’m guessing under 20-30s and Knibb closes by end of lap 2.
For the boys I’m going with Reid for coiffured reasons only!
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [Dumples] [ In reply to ]
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Live feed is being shown on triathlon.org, may be limited coverage on bike, but atleast their is some video.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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Knibb 25 seconds up at end of lap 1.

Game over.

Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Knibb won't stay away with that type of split over Beaugrand when they get to 10k run. eta: she needs 1+ min, which it looks like she's getting it now.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Sep 13, 18 17:41
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [coachbarrie] [ In reply to ]
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Great post, and good info...

On a side note as a Canadian you forgot Erik Millimaki also winning juniors in 1991😀

Cheers,
Maurice
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Re: Gold Coast ITU World Champs Has Some Incredible Possibilities This Week [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
Knibb won't stay away with that type of split over Beaugrand when they get to 10k run. eta: she needs 1+ min, which it looks like she's getting it now.

Tibb is up 80 seconds at 20k:)

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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