Well, you have to take the circumstances into consideration. For the 8:36, he grossly overtrained. For the 8:44 he grossly undertrained (and walked a lot). He's now a 4+ minute faster swimmer. His aerodynamics are now vastly improved. He's got an "advisor" that knows what he's doing.

He's in for a big pr for sure, but will it be good enough to win? It will be fun to watch!!

I'm surprised that Lange only has 7% of the votes. If two of the top PRO men have already hinted that his performance caused them to change the way they train, you can bet he has got into the head space of all the top contenders. It has not only changed the way some of the pro's prepared but it will without a doubt change the way a lot of them choose to race.

BTW, I think it would be a real shame if Stadlers' bike course record gets beaten by someone who blows up and ends up way down the field. The magical thing about his bike record is his bike stood all by itself in T2 for about 16mins whilst he was on his way to an 11 in victory.

Yes, the great thing about Stadler's 4:18 is that it is backed up with a win..., and that it stood for a decade and still stands after all the aero advancements....Frodo's aero set up and engine alone should be worthy of sliding under Stadler's mark if Frodo chose to hammer the bike

Here is another wrench to throw in the mix:

Notwithstanding the fact that the weather on the West Hawi coast is notoriously unpredictable, two weather forecasts (accuweather & Dark Sky) are predicting very strong winds Saturday, 13-15mph with gusts to 20mph which is much worse than previous years. Of course, the direction is from the east so these would be cross.

Assuming this stands or is even close to prediction, how does that change everyone's predictions?

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Have you seen the training video that has been posted of Kienle? Insane!!! If the winds are strong, I vote for SK.

ETA: I voted for Frodeno in the poll.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I don't think it changes my prediction. This would be something for which I believe Frodo has an answer that will still leave him at the front at the end of the day. It would certainly improve Keinle's odds of pulling off a win, though.

I like some of the other guys and hope some of them get wins. But I just don't think any of them are going to break through Frodo and Keinle. Not without some luck on their part and/or bad luck on either of those two's part.

Both years he had great races outside of Kona and did poorly in Kona. So how do we know his great races here will lead to a great Kona this year? I’ll believe he can race great in Kona after he proves he can race at least good (by his high standards) in Kona. I think he’ll pr by a lot which will be a step towards winning. But I don’t see him beating the Germans this weekend given how they’ve proved they can do well at Kona

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Matt

What a great pic... Look at all that stuff behind his seat!!

My guess is that Frodo wants the win bad again this year and believes he can win, but Lange's run last year (2:39:45) that was 5mins faster than his best Kona run (2:45:34) scared him. Say what you want about Lange's penalty, but almost 6mins faster than Jan has ever run in Kona is no joke. That is much faster in those conditions is not something that can easily be equalled, his 2:39 Roth split is a 2:45 In Kona. Anyone who has tried to PR a run by 5mins--open or ironman marathon--knows that at that speed and pace it is a very big jump. Jan also knows that it is not just Lange he needs be concerned with. Listeing to his interviews, I think Jan want's to make the bike hard immediately so that Lange's run legs are wrecked and his better bike strength leaves him fresher allowing him to outrun any other fast runner. Also, forcing the bike to be hard immediately also takes away from Kienle, Sander' s and others ability to break away from the lead group and build an insurmountable gap on him in the back third of the bike.

A note on Sanders vs. Frodo. Sanders can win, but he has to race to his abilities and he has to get out with the 2nd main swim pack or very close to it. If that is done, he needs to team up and actually work with the strong bikers to close the gap to the Kona Express. Then he needs to work with the strongest riders to keep the pace high. Then Sanders needs to break away after 120km with a few others and build a lead on Frodo and or Frodo breaks away with him and the breakaway group builds a lead. Once Sanders hits T2 he runs his own steady, but fast pace and has the others fall away from him or blow up trying to outrun him. If Frodo is there he can't do what Kienle did with Frodo last year, Sanders will blow up trying to match Frodo's foot speed at the beginning, but if he is patient he may slowly wear out a Frodo over running at tge beginning to put time into Sanders/Lange and reel Frodo back in at the end. That's the only way I see Sanders able to beat Frodo currently.

If Stadler can go 4:18 with the Home Depot hardware aisle behind his seat, Frodo on a Canyon and a proper skinsuit should go at least 4:17!!!!

It's gonna take a Macca-2010 like coup to dethrone Jan. I find it hard to see where they will be able to upset him, but better believe people will try!

You gotta believe that Sebi and Sanders are working on the coup. But Jan could have a counter coup up his sleeve. He swims with Amberger and then the two of them get picked up by Wurf and they get on as passengers behind the Wurf Shinkansen (Japanese bullet train). Now you have Jan out couping the coup coalition. Jan gets to T2 in 48 min swim + 2min T2 + 4:17 bike. He hits Alii drive at 5:09 race time. He could basically moon walk the entire lava fields after that, and still have a chance at a sub 8 after that. How do you beat that counter coup? Good luck with that. Jan just got blessed with the IM Cairns front train to tow him along all day to the fastest ever combined time to T2.

At Cairns Josh did 47 + 4:17 and Wurf did 49 + 4:15. This is the front bullet train in Kona assuming these Aussie boys are on form. I don't see why Jan can't go with that.

I actually don't hope this scenario materializes and ideally Lionel and Sebi can ride through the field including riding past Jan, drop him and latch on to the Aussies in the front and do the full blown 2010 Macca coup, but I don't think this is possible if you do the simple math in terms of catching Wurf. Mainly for them, I hope they can ride past Jan and pick up Josh and let Wurf be a race non factor and go on the suicide mission.

As much as I like the underdogs, I’ll admit Frodo will be hard to beat. He has the ability and the experience. He knows how to win in Kona and that’s a big advantage. However:
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. “
Someone will have a puncture, someone will get a penalty, someone will have a bad swim,a good swim, drop their nutrition, be hiding an injury etc etc
And Ironman more than any other sport has so many variables which just makes it fascinating to watch.

The forecast is still holding, in fact, Dark Sky's forecast has gotten worse. Can't wait to see the forecast tomorrow morning but if it's even close to what is currently predicted, it will be close to a 2004 race (fastest split 4:37, Stadler) or at least like 2012 (4:33, Kienle). What's more interesting is that these winds are only around Hawi and the surf/wind forecast for Kona is very light which means this doesn't change the swim much from prior years. This seems to favour Kienle and, dare I say it, Sanders. I think this also gives a good bump to Amberger.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

I like it! Sander and Kienle will love that!

Seems this would favor Kienle more than Sanders, kienle is better at descending and I would say has better bike handling skills. No wind on the rollers! Would love to see the train breakup because of the wind though!

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Right, i forgot Sanders is like me in that I'm an outdoor riding coward. Kienle ftw.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Kienle top tube riding down from Hawi should launch him well ahead of everyone in the cross winds. I'd imagine that Cam Wurf should also have a bike handling advantage in that scenario.

Hey Dev, great post and superb insights as usual. I recently saw Jan's press conference at the Oakley house and his comments were quite interesting. What I found most relevant is that he specifically said that on the swim, bike, and run he and his training partners have been pretty even and battling it out constantly in Girona: Jan, David Mcnamee, and Nick Kastelein. All of them front pack swimmers and have elevated their bike prowess and solid solid runners. I expect to see these 3 gents sticking quite together on the swim and bike(as much possible), and then every man for himself on the run. I even believe coming into Kona they have quite openly discussed this. This could also bring in the mix as has been discussed here Amberger and Wurf.

I think Sebi is crystal clear about this, and knows that his best shot is to work with Lionel and bridge this new front bike pack as soon as possible, as if they get too far ahead then they dictate the pace, work together and quite possibly build an unsurmountable lead coming off at T2. Sebi does not dish out respect to many competitors but on his interview to Triathlon World (Kevin McKinnon) you can really see his respect of Lionel in regards to his racing style and honesty behind it.

Throw in the mix TO and Hoffman and how Lange performs on the bike as well as (Cunnama and Nilsson) and you have absolute fireworks come saturday.

Quite possibly having the biggest group ever come out of T2 at Kona and we shall see unfold in front of our eyes the most exciting marathon ever at Kona.

(Quote) "Quite possibly having the biggest group ever come out of T2 at Kona and we shall see unfold in front of our eyes the most exciting marathon ever at Kona" (Quote)

Maybe the biggest group out of T2 but I suspect by mile 24 there will be only Frodo, i.e., I doubt this race will match Mark and Dave in '89. And if by some chance it actually does come down to an even closer finish than '89, well, it took 28 years for this to happen. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Don't forget 2010 Mecca vs Ralaert

Ah yes, that was indeed a battle; thanks for the refresher.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."