danstu4 wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
Derekl wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
Derekl wrote:
Non-cyclist to 400w FTP in a short time at the age of 40. Seems legit.The guys was a 2:21 marathoner...this equates to some massive watts per kilo once you guys apply the Chung method of Watts per kilo having roughly the same magnitude for a given athlete given equivalent abilities in both sports.
WAS. Not at age 40. That's not at all how it works.
You don't lose that much aerobic capacity by 40...the list is endless of athletes producing competitive pro numbers at 40. Mark Allen won Kona at 38. Cam Brown just went 8:07 at IMNZ at 45! Crowie was winning 70.3's above 40. Dave Scott was 5th at Kona at 40. Rob Barel raced for Holland at the Sydney Olympics triathlon at 40. So not sure why you guys are fixating on 40 years old like it's some ancient dinosaur age. There is not that much aerobic capacity lost by that point.
What do they have all in common, oh ya they have doing triathlon for a very long time. (Not 2 years)
None of the guys I mentioned ran a 2:21 marathon at 165 lbs. 165 lbs is the inverse of a welterweight boxer trying to win the heavyweight division. He was the wrong body type for his old sport. He is the correct body type for triathlon (and to compete head on with you, so I get why someone coming out of the woodwork and ramping quickly can irk one).
Is he juiced to the gills? Who knows. But we almost NEVER get a 2:21 marathoner who is also 165 lbs enter the sport.
Look at the Kona top 15 that ST posts every year. They are all around his size, maybe a bit lighter. It's the perfect size for swimmers who are too short and light and perfect size for runners who are too tall and heavy (on the women's side, Gwen at 58 kilos is just too darn heavy to be an elite marathoner). He's the size of a lot of pro long course triathletes and he has an engine that may be better than theirs for his weight to run at 5 meters per second for 2:21.
Maybe to put this into perspective for you guys, if we take Alistair Brownlee at 29ish min 10K and plug into McMillan we get 2:16 marathon. Mark Allen tried the Berlin Marathon for a 2:15 - 2:17 target and dropped out with wooden quads. This is how good Ed Baker's 2:21 marathon PB time is. I don't think a lot of people accusing him of doping are getting that. Given his size, he may have a better raw engine than Lance did when Lance was racing tris as a teen.
Let's see Ed play out. Test him to the nines as much as possible. His case does beg scrutiny, but on the other side the raw numbers associated with his run times at his massive weight are not something that we often get in triathlon. I think the last two guys with similar open marathons were Christian Bustos (2:22) and Ryan Bolton (I think 2:23). But they were smaller guys who had less top line watts for flat bike sectitons. Another one was Ben Paredes, who ran 2:14 at the NYC marathon, but the guy was so light that he was not that strong in tri/du.
Give me a current pro triathlete with a 2:21 open marathon. Maybe Lange as he is small enough (140 lbs). I doubt the rest of the guys can run anything under 2:27. They are just to heavy and will break down. The beauty of pro triathletes, is their IM run split is not that far off their open time. Maybe 15 minutes.