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Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ?
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We're almost a week into the Tour. So far looks like no positives from the riders and team support bubble with the 2 strikes and the team is "out" rule. Meanwhile in France daily cases are above what they were in April for Covid 19 with over 5000 per day moving 7 day average:

https://www.worldometers.info/...irus/country/france/

On a plus note 7 day averages for those daily deaths is sub 20...back in April it was over 900 per day. Macron has said that he will do what he can to prevent another lockdown but "anything is possible".

For the riders, it seems that they don't really have much chance to interact with the world and catch it, unless that happens late in the day after the daily recovery process. Would be interesting to hear the rider and team support routines daily. I would guess that the people who can bring Covid19 into the peloton bubble are team support who have a chance to interact with the public during the day to some extent while riders are racing.

Anyway, its been great that so far so good and we're getting real racing. It as weird seeing the finish today (Stage 6) up to Mont Aigoual with almost no fans, but that's a good thing (like other pro sports)...at least we get to watch at home!!!
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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This is a terrible thread. You are such a Debbie Downer. :)

If Macron has half a brain, he won't do anything. France started seeing cases climb late July. However, deaths have not even blipped the radar. As in, not even a measurable increase yet. So, either their cases are false positives, or France is delivering world-class medical care to the infected.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Just remember, deaths trail cases by 2 to 3 weeks. This, unfortunately, can get real bad again. And Spain is experiencing the same kind of spike it saw In the spring. I do wonder if the race will make it to Paris, but one positive nite is that the roadside crowds have been masked up.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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exxxviii wrote:
This is a terrible thread. You are such a Debbie Downer. :)

If Macron has half a brain, he won't do anything. France started seeing cases climb late July. However, deaths have not even blipped the radar. As in, not even a measurable increase yet. So, either their cases are false positives, or France is delivering world-class medical care to the infected.

Hey I seeing this as glass half full and the TDF does make it to Paris. We are 6 stages in, and while caaes are up, deaths are flat for a long time ...almost 2 months and the TDF bubble has had no positives yet and Macron wants no lockdown.

So it's looking more likely that we have a chance for this thing to get to Paris at least more of a shot than this time last week just before the start!!!
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [tigermilk] [ In reply to ]
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I hope they finish the race. Should not shut it down due to just a rise in positive tests in France or Spain. What does hospitalization look like? what do "Excess Deaths" look like?


Hypothesis. Despite rise in positive tests, deaths may not spike due to the following factors:
  • The most vulnerable, aged with multiple co-morbidities, have already been impacted
  • Those with known co-morbidities are taking extra care to social distance
  • We've learned not to send the aged and sick back into nursing homes
  • Treatments are better. Some evidence that using ventilators was a bad idea and may have led to more deaths
  • It's summer, people are outside more, therefore body produces more Vitamin D, which benefits immune system. Saw one study which showed a high correlation between low vitamin D levels and Covid deaths.
  • Virus may have mutated to be more contagious, but less deadly

I don't find the "covid death" numbers reliable. Guidelines are very broad, financial incentive to classify as a Covid death too great. Excess total deaths more reliable.

Vive Le Tour
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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If all they are going to do is group tempo rides up each mountain for the next two weeks then I say just end it now so I can get my sleep patterns back in order. :-)

.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [ThailandUltras] [ In reply to ]
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ThailandUltras wrote:
If all they are going to do is group tempo rides up each mountain for the next two weeks then I say just end it now so I can get my sleep patterns back in order. :-)

.

Well we could get them to do distanced Zwift TT and cancel the next 2 weeks of group rides and to make ST explode, put Lionel, Alistair and Frodo in that ITT
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I say yes. It's too high a profile event to get cancelled now.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
We're almost a week into the Tour. So far looks like no positives from the riders and team support bubble with the 2 strikes and the team is "out" rule. Meanwhile in France daily cases are above what they were in April for Covid 19 with over 5000 per day moving 7 day average:

https://www.worldometers.info/...irus/country/france/

On a plus note 7 day averages for those daily deaths is sub 20...back in April it was over 900 per day. Macron has said that he will do what he can to prevent another lockdown but "anything is possible".

For the riders, it seems that they don't really have much chance to interact with the world and catch it, unless that happens late in the day after the daily recovery process. Would be interesting to hear the rider and team support routines daily. I would guess that the people who can bring Covid19 into the peloton bubble are team support who have a chance to interact with the public during the day to some extent while riders are racing.

Anyway, its been great that so far so good and we're getting real racing. It as weird seeing the finish today (Stage 6) up to Mont Aigoual with almost no fans, but that's a good thing (like other pro sports)...at least we get to watch at home!!!
Are they testing everyone? If so, how often and what's the turn around time on the results? I haven't heard a peep about testing since the Tour started.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I think they will stop one stage short.

No one wins on the last day. The race is already decided.



Rhymenocerus wrote:
I think everyone should consult ST before they do anything.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [ctflower] [ In reply to ]
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ctflower wrote:
Are they testing everyone? If so, how often and what's the turn around time on the results? I haven't heard a peep about testing since the Tour started.

They are only testing on rest days (so next Monday is first test day) - two positives and the team is out (it's not clear if it's two riders or two in the team 'bubble') - any positive cases will have to be verified via secondary testing.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [giddyup] [ In reply to ]
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giddyup wrote:
I hope they finish the race. Should not shut it down due to just a rise in positive tests in France or Spain. What does hospitalization look like? what do "Excess Deaths" look like?

I don't find the "covid death" numbers reliable. Guidelines are very broad, financial incentive to classify as a Covid death too great. Excess total deaths more reliable.

Vive Le Tour

I don't know how it is in France, but at least one study in the States suggests excess deaths are beyond what's been reported as COVID deaths. The figures at the time showed 200K excess deaths, when only 140K COVID deaths had been reported.

That being said, you are correct that excess deaths would be the figure to look at.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [beastofbourbon] [ In reply to ]
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beastofbourbon wrote:
giddyup wrote:
I hope they finish the race. Should not shut it down due to just a rise in positive tests in France or Spain. What does hospitalization look like? what do "Excess Deaths" look like?

I don't find the "covid death" numbers reliable. Guidelines are very broad, financial incentive to classify as a Covid death too great. Excess total deaths more reliable.

Vive Le Tour


I don't know how it is in France, but at least one study in the States suggests excess deaths are beyond what's been reported as COVID deaths. The figures at the time showed 200K excess deaths, when only 140K COVID deaths had been reported.

That being said, you are correct that excess deaths would be the figure to look at.

Excess deaths could also be heart attacks and other deaths that were caused because people were too scared to go to the hospital for normal procedures, but back to the the topic at hand, someone said testing only on the rest day. Let's say 2% or 5% of 15% or 25% of the peloton are affected by now hypothetically it would be interesting to understand how this has impacted the race.

I did not realize that testing was only on rest day and thought it was every day for the rider+team bubble
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Here is my favorite way to look at data now that we are in this "second wave" where hospitalizations and deaths do not seem to track to cases like they did in the beginning. The nut is that while France's new daily cases are through the roof, deaths have not changed. At all.


Last edited by: exxxviii: Sep 4, 20 7:38
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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If the UCI is good at anything, it's covering up positive test results...
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [chrisb7] [ In reply to ]
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chrisb7 wrote:
ctflower wrote:

Are they testing everyone? If so, how often and what's the turn around time on the results? I haven't heard a peep about testing since the Tour started.


They are only testing on rest days (so next Monday is first test day) - two positives and the team is out (it's not clear if it's two riders or two in the team 'bubble') - any positive cases will have to be verified via secondary testing.
Ah. Could be a small field on the line at stage10.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I hope it makes it. I hope that when they do the tests on the rest day nobody is positive. I'm happy to be able to watch the race.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Bernal is probably hoping he will test positive on the rest day so he doesn't have to keep pretending he has the form to win the race.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [nightfend] [ In reply to ]
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nightfend wrote:
Bernal is probably hoping he will test positive on the rest day so he doesn't have to keep pretending he has the form to win the race.

He's probably licking doorknobs as we speak
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [indianacyclist] [ In reply to ]
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indianacyclist wrote:
If the UCI is good at anything, it's covering up positive test results...




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Last edited by: cloy: Sep 4, 20 13:04
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [cloy] [ In reply to ]
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cloy wrote:
indianacyclist wrote:
If the UCI is good at anything, it's covering up positive test results...



With that we should close this thread LOL!!!
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [nightfend] [ In reply to ]
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nightfend wrote:
Bernal is probably hoping he will test positive on the rest day so he doesn't have to keep pretending he has the form to win the race.

So we have two stage in the Pyranees this weekend and then on Monday 600 riders + staff get tested. If X% test positive talk is ASO could shut it down....in that case, this weekend they go full gas in case it ends on Monday nite!!!
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [exxxviii] [ In reply to ]
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Europe has had no/very mininal excess deaths since sometime in June. The cases really don't mean anything when this is the case, and you're not normalizing positive tests on charts like this for testing rates.

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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
We're almost a week into the Tour. So far looks like no positives from the riders and team support bubble with the 2 strikes and the team is "out" rule. Meanwhile in France daily cases are above what they were in April for Covid 19 with over 5000 per day moving 7 day average:

https://www.worldometers.info/...irus/country/france/

On a plus note 7 day averages for those daily deaths is sub 20...back in April it was over 900 per day. Macron has said that he will do what he can to prevent another lockdown but "anything is possible".

For the riders, it seems that they don't really have much chance to interact with the world and catch it, unless that happens late in the day after the daily recovery process. Would be interesting to hear the rider and team support routines daily. I would guess that the people who can bring Covid19 into the peloton bubble are team support who have a chance to interact with the public during the day to some extent while riders are racing.

Anyway, its been great that so far so good and we're getting real racing. It as weird seeing the finish today (Stage 6) up to Mont Aigoual with almost no fans, but that's a good thing (like other pro sports)...at least we get to watch at home!!!

I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that they’re only tested every 10 ten days, which won’t make much sense, But if that’s true, they won’t really have much time to analyse the results remove a team, unless they catch two at the same time on the first testing day.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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On Flobikes.com, they were talking about testing all 600 riders+staff on the rest day (Monday).

More likely scenario given UCI coverups is positive riders suddenly become "injured" on Tuesday and voluntarily DNS (honestly this would be my preference so as not to create mass hysteria). My personal 2 cents is it is doubtful riders are giving it to each other, because all they do is race, recover, eat, sleep, get up, eat, warmup, repeat. The way the virus gets into the bubble is what the staff doe all around France while the riders are with each other. The staff have more opportunities to bring it into the bubble. Its not like the riders do much in local towns after the stage of the day, so they are roughly on a "rider curfew" even if they are not. We could debate it they are giving it to each other in the air outside in the race. No one will ever know if those riders who become positive got positive that way or from staff. During the UAE Tour, the staff from Italy brought it in from my understanding, but that team did not give it to other riders through the air during the race.
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