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Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France?
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I'll start out by saying that I'm not a Froome fan, but I think barring a crash or sickness, it's pretty much a given that Froome will roll into Paris wearing yellow. The main reason I say this is that I don't think he would have risked a chance at joining the 5X tour winner club over the Giro if he wasn't 90%+ sure he would win the TdF. He's getting up there in age and he probably only has 2-3 more legitimate chances to win the TdF. Joining the 5X club is much more of a legacy builder than winning all 3 grand tours. I know there are a lot of factors to consider regarding him and his competition that can lead to a good discussion over this, but I'm thinking that Froome and Sky know almost for certain that he will win this race using whatever advantage (legal or not) that they already have in place.

Any thoughts?
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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Why stop at the Tour? He will probably win the vuelta aswell and then keep on winning for the next few years until someone finds a way to become an even bigger alien.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [bentus] [ In reply to ]
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I'll bet he skips the Vuelta this year regardless of how the Tour goes, but you never know.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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I think the bigger question is whether he wins in the courts vs on the tarmac!
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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personally i see 4 x TdF + giro and vuelta for the full set as greater than 5 x TdF, even without the extra prestige of holding all 3 at once.
i know much of the world is solely focused on the TdF but that's their problem ;)
just trying for the giro bought froome a lot of kudos from me

i agree though, i'd still rate froome as #1 favourite - he has the all round performance, he has the team and he and sky have shown that most times when they target a GT they win it.
of the major rivals, dumoulin also has the giro in his legs and doesn't have the team or history of success; movistar el tridente will lose time in the TTs as with bardet and none of them have shown the ability to put big time into froome in the mountains; nibali is always a bit of a wildcard; adam yates is unproven; porte always seems to find a way to fail...

there's certainly more potential coming into this tour than recent years though - froome might have miscalculated; the opening week has pitfalls to take someone out, most particularly the cobbles; el tridente might attack enough to break the sky train; porte might finally have luck on his side... unfortunately the TTT shifts the balance back to sky as the only team that can really combine a top TTT squad with serious mountain support
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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I'll start out by saying that I'm not a Froome fan, but I think barring a crash or sickness, it's pretty much a given that Froome will roll into Paris wearing yellow.

Nothing is for sure. So many variables in bike road racing.

There has not been a Giro/Tour winner in a very long time - really in the more modern era of the sport.

Others have tried, but failed in either the giro and/or the Tour and come up short (even those of suspicion - Contador, Armstrong et al). Will Froome be different?




Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
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Fleck wrote:
I'll start out by saying that I'm not a Froome fan, but I think barring a crash or sickness, it's pretty much a given that Froome will roll into Paris wearing yellow.

Nothing is for sure. So many variables in bike road racing.

There has not been a Giro/Tour winner in a very long time - really in the more modern era of the sport.

Others have tried, but failed in either the giro and/or the Tour and come up short (even those of suspicion - Contador, Armstrong et al). Will Froome be different?


Huh? Armstrong raced the Giro once, & it was during his final comeback. I’d hardly say he was trying for a double.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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How is Richie Porte doing this year? Until his crash in the TDF last year he was looking really strong. I don't follow cycling enough but, if he has a good team, and he's in top shape, he might be in with a chance?
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [Tubs] [ In reply to ]
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Tubs wrote:
How is Richie Porte doing this year? Until his crash in the TDF last year he was looking really strong. I don't follow cycling enough but, if he has a good team, and he's in top shape, he might be in with a chance?

Porte is hauling at the Tour de Suisse...but it's a one week stage race, not 3 week. 3 weeks is another animal.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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Assuming he gets by without any major catastrophe, he certainly is the favorite. Nibs is looking good, but I just don't think he has the team. Bardet has looked great this spring, but his losses in the ITT and TTT will be too much to overcome. Tom D is a killer, but how he responds to back to back grand tours is an unknown. I really do hope Richie stays out of trouble and is able to ride to his potential. I think he is the only rider with a team that can compete with Froome and Sky. The Movistar trifecta will be interesting, but the whole concept of the team not having a leader is going to be trouble. At any rate, I don't think any one of the Movistar boys could when any way.

All of that and we arrive back at Froome and Sky. Sky has multiple riders who could win a grand tour in their own right. I think his biggest threat will be due to issues from the AAF. I wish that would get resolved one way or another.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Porte is looking very good indeed.

I just remembered about Rigo Uran. Cannondale isn't the strongest team, but Rigo rode a killer race last year and can time trial relatively well. He hasn't raced much this year that I've seen. Any betters want to jump on the Uran train or was last year an aberration.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [turdburgler] [ In reply to ]
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I was glad to see Uran finish 2nd last year, but it was a case of catching lightning in a bottle.

There's not another rider who can beat Froome right now. But there are other things (crashes, sickness, the on going drug case) that he and team Sky cannot control. I'd bet money on him winning, but I wouldn't bet the whole farm.


"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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Rigo has finished on the Podium twice at the Giro as well so he is no slouch. Should their be any issues with Froome, I actually think Geraint Thomas could win.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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I don't think it's a foregone conclusion. "Barring a crash or sickness" is also leaving a lot of room for excuses. A lot of sickness can be attributed to a weak immune system. You know...from the immense stress of riding and trying to win two consecutive GTs, as well as trying to stay down at race weight for a longer period of time than normal. Also, being involved in a crash significantly increases when you're not riding at or near the front. GC riders are often tempted to ride mid back and get a better draft benefit, but the strongest riders don't always want to take that chance. Even while descending, it's much less common for the guy near the front to go down as compared to the guys trying to press just to keep up.

Also the cobbled stages and chances of getting caught out in crosswinds are real issues. Even though Nibali won in 2014 by a 7+ minute margin, he put 2 minutes on the rest of his GC competition on the cobbles stage. The next year Quintana lost 1:28 in the crosswinds during stage 2...and ended up losing the GC by 1:12.

This is bike racing where there are tons of unexpected variables that come into play and eventually decide placings. Thomas nearly lost control of the Dauphine when he flatted in the final 40 km and the race was on. Usually the fittest rider wins, but not always. That's why they don't decide the TdF on Zwift.

I do believe Froome risked being a 5x tour winner for the chance at the Giro/Tour double as well as trying to hold all 3 GTs at the same time. Even if Froome doesn't win this year's tour, his accomplishments so far in his career are more impressive (to me) than if he skipped the Giro and won this year's TdF.

Seems like there are some odds makers in Europe offering 2/1 on Froome. Maybe time to mortgage the house?
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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No. I do not think Froome will win the TdF. He might have the strongest GT team and the best puffer in his pocket, but there are too many other variables involved in bike racing. Luck- you have to have it in spades. And a stronger overall field will not allow him the leash that gave him his excellent Floyd day out.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Not only that but Nibiali exhibited an amazing display of all-around skill that year while everyone else crashed themselves around him. To me that, along with Contador’s last Vuelta win, were among the best GTs in recent memory. They won with skill and tactical noir as opposed to going uphill the fastest after following teammates around all day.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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In the modern age of specialization, I will be shocked if he can. No one has managed that since the uncontrolled epo days of Indurain and Pantani and whether or not Sky is clean, the modern era can't get away with what they did then. So then you have to go back to Hinault and the last time he did it, they created a fairly easy, TT heavy course to favor Moser and Hinault beat them at their own game in the Giro and then ran away in the Tour that featured like 5 individual time trials. The Giro no longer thinks of itself (ascribing traits to a thing) as 2nd banana to the Tour, even if stats would say otherwise, so the courses have been very difficult. I would not bet money on him. Not that I would ever bet money on anything...
Chad
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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Don't forget we have cobbles again this year!

Somebody probably already said that but I didn't have time to read the whole thread..
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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Assuming the Giro was all fair and square, he timed his form perfectly to that he peaked in the 3rd week, as everyone else was tiring.
I don't see how he can then rest, re-build and come back a 5 weeks later and still be on top form.

Contador won the Giro a few years ago and would have been a massive favorite for the Tour, but just looked lethargic the whole time. I think the same could happen in the Tour to Froome. Unless of course it wasn't a natural form peak in the last week of the Giro...
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [turdburgler] [ In reply to ]
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turdburgler wrote:
Porte is looking very good indeed.

I just remembered about Rigo Uran. Cannondale isn't the strongest team, but Rigo rode a killer race last year and can time trial relatively well. He hasn't raced much this year that I've seen. Any betters want to jump on the Uran train or was last year an aberration.

Rigo has Rolland who is going well. Porte has Tejay who is going well and has the right temperament for pulling back breaks on behalf of the team.

I'm pulling hard for Rigo. Class guy.
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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McNulty wrote:
... a stronger overall field will not allow him the leash that gave him his excellent Floyd day out.

Froome's been having gravity issues, that's what made the Floyd-away necessary

Geratin Thomas also collided with a planet in the Dauphine Prologue [OK, it was a glancing blow, as he kinda skidded along the surface], and got up lickety-split to almost win the thing right there

SKY will be solid and committed for Le Tour [not like last year, when everyone wondered if or when Landa was gonna go rogue]. If Froome can't start, or crashes out, they'll just move the next man up and dominate with him

Or not, who knows?

"Comfort zones are places where average people do mediocre things. #screwcomfortzones" - James Watt, BrewDog
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [knighty76] [ In reply to ]
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knighty76 wrote:
Don't forget we have cobbles again this year!

Somebody probably already said that but I didn't have time to read the whole thread..

we need my namesake back!
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [IamSpartacus] [ In reply to ]
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The Giro - La Tour double hasn't worked for most GC contender people in the last decade or so. . . .
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [elf6c] [ In reply to ]
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Right you are, but Sky might just have it cracked...maybe Froome will pull an Adam Hansen and complete 20 grand tours in a row, except he will win every one!
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Re: Does anyone think Froome won't win the Tour de France? [NUFCrichard] [ In reply to ]
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NUFCrichard wrote:
I don't see how he can then rest, re-build and come back a 5 weeks later and still be on top form

Drugs.....lots of them! May as well call him Nikki Sixx over te next few weeks.
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