Indeed. Let's hope bike handling and moxie matter. As for Sky, there's a special place in hell...just kidding. Don't want to demonize what are basically a bunch of super talented athletes doing their thing for a team with a lot of dough. It's just that I like rooting for the underdogs.

Nibs is flying under the radar again. Has a solid team and panache. I would not bet against him.

This year is different. TDF is pushed back one week so not to compete so long with the world cup. That extra week rest after the Giro will help Froome a lot, and unless he crashes, gets sick, he is sure to win again.

The interesting thing about the mountains this year is that I'm not sure Froome will have the same advantages of having a strong team in the mountains as he normally does. Sky has always gone to the front and just set such a hard tempo that nobody could attack from more than 5 km out. And even if you did wait until late when the Sky team slowly peeled off, you were so tired from the hard tempo that you didn't have much left in the tank to make an attack that could create significant time gaps.

This tactic of Sky only works though if you assume you have the strongest GC rider in the field. It doesn't make sense to set a ridiculously hard tempo if all you are doing is forcing Froome to struggle behind and become exposed to fresher GC contenders like Nibali, Quintana, Porte, etc.

So I'm wondering if Sky will back down the tempo a hair, and open up more opportunities for others. Or maybe Froome really is an alien?

I agree with your sentiments. Baring an catastrophe (sickness, crash, etc), he will win. His team is very strong and, in the high hills nobody is his equal.

i don't understand the logic of this thread. if this thread had been posted on the friday morning prior to stage 19 i don't believe anyone would be calling froome a favourite. he was inconsistent, was getting dropped, and was considered done in the giro.
80km solo TT and now he is untouchable.

nairo tried the double. contador tried the double. both of them got pounded by a fresher SKY squad that had the legs 3 weeks into the TDF.

froome did not have an "easy" giro by any stretch of the imagination. A lot of stress was piled on in that last week. That is going to make him fatigued coming into the TDF and vulnerable from the get go. Most GT riders "ride" into form through the 3 week tour. He will have the opposite problem going on.

Nonetheless, it should make things interesting to watch.

froome has been the standout GT rider for 5 years. he was off-form for much of the giro but that is just more reason why he is a strong contender to do the rare double - he clearly did not peak for the giro the way he normally would, instead holding back on the form so that he should be in a better position to recover and peak again for the tour.
if anything, if he hadn't done that monster stage 19 we might think him even more the favourite for the tour as he would have just been using the giro as training.

at least that's one way of looking at it, we will see in a month or so...

I would be shocked if he rode into yellow. It’s been so long since the double Giro/Tour has been done that I believe in this cycling era it’s become impossible. Last I remember a real favorite giving it a go was Contador tried the double, looked decent half way through but fell later in the tour. There’s just too deep a field out there. Especially with team BMC having a pretty formidable one two punch. I’m looking to Porte to win.

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I still lapped everyone on the couch!

Most years I would agree with this. However, this year is bit different with one additional week in between the Giro and tour, plus the team TT will eliminate some of the threats (ie., Bardat). That additional one week is huge.

BMC with Porte winning would not surprise me. I saw today in the Tour dr Slovenie Rigo won the stage and took the overall lead over an attacking Roglic and Impey. Certainly not the deepest of field but with some good guys attacking it looked good for Rigo. Still don't think his team is strong enough for GC win at the Tour though unless something major happens.

Quintana looked good today as well taking the stage win with Porte retaining the overall lead in the Suisse. Tejay and GVA looked excellent though limiting the losses for Porte.

I pretty much agree with this, but I think the biggest factor in Froome's favor is the TTT. Sky sent notice to the rest of the peloton at the Dauphine with that effort and proved they can field an amazing TTT team that can also provide mountain support. I think there's a good chance we are about to see the best Quintana we've seen yet, but the TTT + ITT combo coupled with the concerns around Landa's priorities might put him just out of reach. Uran should be a contender but the team will not be competitive with Sky's TTT, same for Nibali, Bardet, Fuglsang, etc... Domoulin and Porte with their talents and teams, however, are real threats. Domoulin will have to deal with fatigue just like Froome so advantage probably goes to Sky with the better team. Porte may actually have bike handling issues that could prove costly on the cobbles (I'm nowhere near skilled enough to call out a pro rider's skills, so I'll leave it at a maybe), but barring a crash I think he is the favorite to unseat Froome.
*Oh yeah, I put Thomas on slightly lower footing than Porte as the next most likely to unseat Froome based on having the exact same team and being fresh with great form.

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Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Man, I would love to see Quintana win the TdF, but after the last couple of years I'm not convinced he can do it. Physically I think he can, but from what I've seen I don't think he has a winner's mentality.....he seems to fold up to easily. The best fight I've seen from him was on Alpe d'Huez in 2015 but he seems to be missing that ever since.

I think he used to have that mentality for sure, but it feels like something has rattled his confidence in the past couple years and he has developed some self doubt. Hopefully this success at Suisse will inspire that confidence again, I too would love to see Quintana win the GC overall.

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Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Fernando Gaviria is going to win.

Porte is really looking strong here in switzerland. On thursday he surged very hard and very long. Went out of the saddle and just kept pushing until everyone was in pieces.
Yesterday he was also strong and closed a lot of the gap to Quintana rather quickly (but not entierly). The TT tomorrow should be no problem for him.

I have no idea if he can keep the form or hold himself together as the captain in a grand Tour. But I hope he does well. With Küng and Dennis the TTT should be fine.

Also nice that Quintana tried something yesterday. But I am not sure if he will so something similar in France.

My money would be on Froome. But I hope for Porte. Could be one of the best tours in recent years.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Very good analysis. I think that Quintana may end up being the guy wiht the best form, but he has the weaker TTT squad and Landa is effectively useless to him and may as well be on another team. It's almost worse that he is at Movistar as it removes a Quintana helper. Quintana COULD also lose time on the cobbles early. That's a wild card that could hurt many lighterweight guys!

Personally I would like to see Tom D or Porte do it. If Thomas was on another team, I'd be happy with him winning, but he's on the wrong team for me to be cheering for him.

I think he probably will win but wouldn't mind seeing it be more competitive... I'm just not sure who that would be... team and rider combo doesn't seem to be there for anyone else.

I sure he will take just enough asthma medicine to win!



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