If you think I'm shitting on him you need to go re read my posts.

I deal in bluntness and truths on here. I speak in facts not fiction.

I wrote the truth. Other people wrote fantasy novels.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

FWIW, a buddy of mine KQ'd at IMMOO with a 1:10 swim.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

This is why he is rolling in Sponsorship, the guy is more famous and marketable than a pro triathlete, he has like 3 to 4 times the followers on social media, although Crowie is pretty close.

Yeah you found an exception! Great job!

You should go through all the IM's this year and count up how many non exceptions there were in the M30-49 AG's and report back.

Again people it's about the norms, not exceptions and 67 swim KQ is an exception.

Is it really that hard to grasp?

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Brian, I don't disagree with you. Of course a swim like that puts you behind the 8 ball and if he's gonna still contend he has to burn matches on the bike. That's where he lives at this point with his Ironman experience. He. Is. A. Biker. We know that. A week before IMLP he was considering the best he could do was a 1:20 on the swim. He figured some mechanics out (somehow!) and I'd say a 1:07 4 weeks later is indicating he's figuring this out.

All I'm saying is he's chopping at this tree and can bring it down as good as any of us. Not today. No. But maybe the next one? The one after that? Why anyone is saying he can't is just a good way to open oneself to eating crow. He just did his first Ironman and put himself back out there before his body could recover. I agree with others that it takes a few to figure out how to KQ, and he's not immune to that. He's figuring this out and I believe he'll do Kona one day....without the celeb slot. That's why I think this story is worth following.

Besides, it's way more interesting than watching Gordon Ramsey do this crap, isn't it?!

Cheers,

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thechromedome
http://www.favoritefinishlines.blogspot.com
http://www.cupcakecartel.org
My 20% off code for 2018 FS Series races: tricred18
"there are no drafters in heaven" - C Bonner

Dude,

Harsh words.

Plenty of 40-44 men winning with slower than 67' swim split.

Mirra may ride too hard, but I doubt it's because he HAS to.

Plenty of race strategy options for a 67'+ swimmer - regardless of age. That's the beauty of swim and bike and run.

I'll take the bet that he figures it out in the near future (within 12 months from now). What are we betting?

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Jimmy
http://www.Riccitello.com

Nah, not really that interested in it. Feel free to have at it though, if you want.

Just pointing out that a guy with a WORSE swim than Mirra can still KQ (and it was in 30-34, too).

That said, if you are deficient in one area, you damn well better exceptional in another. My buddy can run like a fookin' gazelle and threw down a monster run to KQ (at his first IM, no less).

Is Mirra exceptional enough on the bike (which is clearly his strength) to overcome his deficiencies? Dunno....time will tell, I suppose.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

count them up over the last 2 years, report back.

Thanks

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Well, crap. I guess if there's gonna be any betting I better be in on it as the OP. Brian and I already owe each other a sit down for some beers. If it's gonna go deeper in my bank account than that I'm gonna have to explain this thread to my wife and she's already unhappy with how glued I've been to the screen!

Cheers,

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thechromedome
http://www.favoritefinishlines.blogspot.com
http://www.cupcakecartel.org
My 20% off code for 2018 FS Series races: tricred18
"there are no drafters in heaven" - C Bonner

Plenty of slower than 67' swims are winning 40 and over men Ironmans. More than plenty slower than 67' are KQing.

Are you going to put your money where your mouth is, or not?

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Jimmy
http://www.Riccitello.com

Yeah. You mean, like, after he has 12 more months of training under his belt? hopefully a more efficient swim, if not a faster one? And the added durability from all that training?

People pile on because the guy comes to the sport with a background of bmx riding but with no endurance background and is pretty open about his ambitions of KQing. The guys who do that here - without any previous results to show they're capable - get piled on. And rightfully so.

All Brian's saying is people need to look at the norms. Instead of pointing out exceptions. Because they're just that. We all know there are exceptions. Hell, my first ironman after 11 months in the sport is an exception I've not been able to repeat. And that's why 140.6 racing is unlike any other. It all has to come together on the day. Egos are big. Hope can be an evil drug.

Dudes just gonna need more time. And that might still not be enough.

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"One Line Robert"

Picked 3 from this year at random cause I don't have time to do 2 years worth: coeur d'Alane, Canada, Texas.

Looked at top 3 from 30-34, 35-39, 40-44

5/27 of these athletes (18.5%) swam >67 min. Not sure how many slots for each AG, but add a couple more if we look at 4th place from these divisions.

Obviously not a huge sample size, but I imagine this would track out to be more than 1-2% of KQs in these age groups swimming greater than 67 min.

A year ago, 1st place amateur overall male at Lake Placid had splits of 1:20/4:40/3:00

It wasn't during the last two years, but not that long ago - when I was between the ages of 40-45 - I KQ'd four times, never swimming faster than 71 minutes. I follow the Murphy's Law school of racing: swim slow, bike fast, run faster.

Yep. I will take that bet too.

While I understand your point on his swim, what about his run? He can improve 10 minutes on the swim but if he doesn't figure out how to pace the bike properly so he can put together a 3:20ish marathon, he's not kq'ing anytime soon.

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blog

You rang? Total Aversion in the hizzouse!! ;-)

I KQ'd with a 1:19 swim. M40-45.
But as my esteemed colleague so succinctly stated, you need to bike AND run really well if you want to pull that trick off.
It's definitely not the easy way. But it's a way.

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float , hammer , and jog

...and Mirra has not shown that he can run. What he has shown (at least today, I was not following LP) is that headed out at the same pace as Rapp and Sanders. He was riding 2 kph faster than Sam Gyde at the first split. The first split already has some climbing to get out of Tremblant. So Mirra was way overbiking. Not sure exactly why he thought he needed to head out at the pace of Rapp. You don't need to ride that hard to Kona Q in 40-44 even with a 67 min swim. On top of that, he had a 6 min transition. Why take 2 extra minutes in transition and then over bike when you can just go 2 min faster in transition and then ride easier knowing that you just blew the run in LP and should conserve energy in Tremblant ?

Perhaps he was waiting for his HR to reach his desired effort for the ride? So felt he could hammer until it crept up to that 135 BPM goal.................

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"One Line Robert"

The man of reason. Brian is all about realities and wants people to look at the "norm", but seems to want to refuse admitting that Mirra is just that - NOT normal. Either way, if Mirra can't run, it makes no difference what he can swim and bike. He's exceptional on the bike, but not that exceptional.

Also Brian alluded to this, but it is possible that many 60 something swimmers who have bad runs are over swimming. Not sure if 67 was something like 70% FTP for Mirra or 95% FTP

Help me understand how Mirra is "NOT normal" - at triathlon? I'm confused.

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"One Line Robert"

Well said chrome dome. I would rather watch and enjoy, than to pass judgement, on a person I never met who is trying to qualify for an endeavor I had never achieved myself. Especially a person who is so positive and such a great influence as Dave. I put my money on him every day over the armchair qb's who aren't willing to roll the dice once in a while, irregardless of how many "minutes" their swim splits happen to be.

Are you purposely being dense, upset he gets more attention than you, or both?

I think PE and Power are much better metrics that HR. I have never used HR to guide my races (went 9:40 in my first IM), I firmly believe in listening to my body to really understand what it is going through. HR that is slightly skewed due to externalities is not a reason to change race effort, IMO since so many things affect HR (some of which are limiting and others are just noise causing) that I find using it to guide my racing or training to be very un-useful.

I think DM's background in explosive effort short events will prove to really impact how he develops and adapts to long course racing. If he came from an endurance cycling background, he would already understand his body at 70% and would make the necessary adjustments during a race to save matches and run much better. I do hope he can learn fast and hopefully his coach will now have him do some Oly and 70.3 to quicken that learning curve (with many more chances to learn).

Jack

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