Although I don't disagree with the pick, that's essentially a 3:30 finishing time (yes, I know, must add transitions), but isn't that close to the "world record"?

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I agree, and that really makes me hesitant to make such a prediction, but if he held 325 NP last week at 6k ft elevation in brutal winds, rain and cold and if he holds 15-20w higher on the super flat Cozumel course, 1:50 seems doable. And, a downstream swim that has seen non-swimmers do 22min in the recent past, and a conservative 1:15 run, it doesn't seem like too wild of a prediction, but yes, it's getting down their with Michael Raelert's previous WR, but still a solid 4-5min off what the Norwegians have been doing.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

note, last year wasn't much of a downstream swim, with Rudy swimming 24:high. But, if it is a 22min swim year, and if Sam does run close to his Mags pace, which is insanley hilly and at 8.5k ft elevation, you do the math. I'll be spectating, that's for sure

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

My pick is also Sam Long. He looked super strong at Bear Lake Brawl with a super human bike and a 2nd fastest run in a field that included Matt Hanson. That being said I think Matt Hanson is also going to Cozumel. However, I still think Sam takes the win. He is running so high off his dominance at Bear Lake that I think it will carry to Cozumel.

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

He might push more watts than he did at 6000ft, but he'll also lose the aerodynamic benefit of being at 6000ft. For an acclimated athlete like Sam, sea level is noticeably slower than elevation all else equal.

Still a strong contender obviously

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Me: https://carnivoreendurance.blogspot.com/...ever-comes-next.html

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How is that even possible? I train in Denver and am noticeably faster racing in Florida.

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@floathammerholdon | @partners_in_tri

air density is lower at altitude.

And, while Bear Lake was cold and raining, air density is even lower with rain.

BUT, the caveat I see is that the temps were so low at Bear Lake that athletes reported shivering, having tight muscles and their knees hurting from the cold. Sam said in his video that had the weather been warmer last weekend, he could have broken 1:50.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

In general that is the oldest lie in the books. Dan and Dan said that at the Olympic trials in 1996, Lochte said it, well, basically at every Nationals meet ever. A college swim team dominates at conference and says they weren't tapered...

I'll still take him for the win, though.

I actually think he's being honest re: not fully resting.

But, the main reason for this reply is to give you major props for squeaking in a Dan and Dave reference

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

I just want to see Holly Lawrence on the top !

Lol lets calm down a little on the bike predictions. The fastest bike time from the history of the race is 2:00:52 by a Michael Weiss in 2018. If Sam rides 1:50:xx he should be a shoo in for the UCI TT world championships next weekend.

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
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Good luck this weekend, as I saw you are on the start list.

and no, I won't be calming down and no one is listening to your advice on the prior thread about proper social pro athlete etiquette. police yourself, and no one else. Looking forward to seeing you race.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

What? I wasn't aware that I gave any advice.

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

Agreed, total posturing even if true. You don’t ever need to say anything about your level of rest and if you are it’s only to send a message to the competition.

In addition to messing up Dan and Dave, I got the quadrennial wrong as it was 1992 not 1996.

He posts most of his training to Strava and IG. He definitely tapered the week leading into the race. Volumes were way down compared to prior weeks. So not an A race style taper, but it's not like he came into the race fully fatigued.

I still think he blows the field away on the bike in Cozumel and holds on for the win. 329NP at altitude and in the rain is super impressive. I'm saying 1:54 in Cozumel

Don't know much about the others, but Hanson has won IMTX several times, correct? This kind of course / climate suit him well. There's my pick.

Who are "Dan and Dave"???

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

They were in the olympics.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Not Dan!

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

You might want to fact check that.........

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Any idea what the race day coverage will look like?

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

Hmmm.... That's a good pick right there. I actually thought Hanson would win the Bear Lake Brawl with it's pancake flat run. The cold got to him but if it had been a bit warmer he could have given Sam a run for his money. I could totally see Matt winning this one.

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

Ummm, ya, I know that. OK, so I dug out my Swimming World Sept 1992 issue. Assuming we are talking about U.S. swimmers, Dan is Dan Jorgensen, who finished 14th in the 400 m free in 3:53.2. As for Dave though, there are two: Dave Wharton and Dave Berkoff. I would guess that AJ meant Wharton since he is more of a distance swimmer (200 fly, 400 IM), vs Berkoff who was a sprinter (100 m back). This is why I asked the question. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."