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Why do you say that Cat. 3 or better power/weight is required for a potential Kona qualifier? Is that based on research, or your impressions and experience regarding the numbers provided in the referenced spreadsheet?
Just one guy's opinion, that's all. I spent some time looking over IM splits of people that I know either personally or that I otherwise follow through their own training logs (online). I've ridden next to people on long rides and in TTs that went on to qualify, so I've got a decent sense of what it takes and what kind of power output is required. That, plus my own testing with my Powertap out at the local TT course. Finally, I played around a lot with various parameters on analyticcycling.com's calculators.
My best hunch is that, if you line up a Kona-quality triathlete at a 40K TT event, they're gonna finish at the high Cat4 to low Cat2 range. A mid-Cat3 rider is doing ~300 watts in a 40K; a front-of-pack IM rider is averaging 200 or so in the IM. An IM rider is riding two "levels" lower than the 40K rider: [1] the duration is longer, of course; and [2] the IM rider is not maxing the effort; he/she is saving something for the run.
I'm guessing that a good IM bike split is about 60-65% of power in a 40K TT. That's how I gauge my own progress. I use 2x 20' intervals as a proxy for a rested, race-day 40K TT, and take 60% of that. Right now, I cannot hope to ride to a qualifying split (my 2x 20' is 250 watts). But, give me time to train, and who knows...