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Chicago Marathon Thread a/k/a how will Gwen do?
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Link below for the local Chicago TV station that's broadcasting the marathon. Race starts at 7:30am Central with the broadcast to start at 7:00am.

https://www.nbcchicago.com


ORIGINAL POST:


She announced this morning that she'll be making here marathon debut at Chicago.

https://www.instagram.com/...ken-by=gwenjorgensen

Let's get some predictions started. I'm going with 2:27:13.
Last edited by: logella: Oct 7, 18 4:58
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [logella] [ In reply to ]
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logella wrote:
She announced this morning that she'll be making here marathon debut at Chicago.

https://www.instagram.com/...ken-by=gwenjorgensen

Not her debut. This will be her second. She ran New York in 2016.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [HandHeartCrown] [ In reply to ]
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True but for all intents and purposes it’s her debut.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [logella] [ In reply to ]
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so, marathon gurus, how does this fit in with her overall plans? and what kind of course is chicago? will it suit her (and/or her competition)?

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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [logella] [ In reply to ]
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logella wrote:
True but for all intents and purposes it’s her debut.

How do you figure? Chicago isn’t more prestigious than New York. It’s not her Boston debut.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [logella] [ In reply to ]
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Her debut as a runner and not a triathlete! (pinkish)

So what's the guess on times? Her recent races don't seem to be good indicators given she has been running long miles around those events. Assuming it isn't a hot day, anyone thinks she can do sub 2:25?

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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [Skyline Chili] [ In reply to ]
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Skyline Chili wrote:
logella wrote:
True but for all intents and purposes it’s her debut.

How do you figure? Chicago isn’t more prestigious than New York. It’s not her Boston debut.

I didn’t say it was. She ran New York for fun with very little training. This is her first marathon since retiring from triathlon and committing to train as a marathoner with the goal of making the Olympics.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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hadukla wrote:
Her debut as a runner and not a triathlete! (pinkish)

So what's the guess on times? Her recent races don't seem to be good indicators given she has been running long miles around those events. Assuming it isn't a hot day, anyone thinks she can do sub 2:25?

Chicago is supposed to be pancake flat, but even with the finest weather conditions I don't see her breaking 2:30. Here are the 2017 woman who did break 2:30. Jordan Hasay in number 3 is the only American in that group. I doubt that Gwen will be anywhere near her. Chicago is where Gwen's olympic ambitions are going to get crushed.

Dibaba - 2:18:31
Kosgei - 2:20:22
Hasay - 2:20:57
Perez - 2:24:44
Kipketer - 2:28:05
Weighman - 2:28:45
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [iron_mike] [ In reply to ]
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It’s a fast course (unless you get a freak heat wave like 2007). The start list is loaded and it’ll be a good preview for the Olympic trials competition wise as two favorites for the Olympic team - Amy Cragg and Jordan Hasay - are racing as well.

I’m really looking forward to the men’s race. Rupp vs Farah. Plus 7 other international men who’ve got PR’s under 2:07. And Yuki Kawauchi, though unless there is some wacky weather he’ll be a non factor.

Matt
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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There are 7 women who’ve have gone under 2:23 and 4 under 2:21. It’ll be interesting strategy wise to see how fast they go out and who tried to hang on.

Last year the lead group (which included Hasay and Brigid Kosgei who are both running this year) went out in 1:09:10. If Gwen wants to win gold then she’ll have to go with them. But that could lead to a big blowup or DNF. Or she could surprise everyone and hand on to run a 2:20. We’ll see. Should be fun to watch

Matt
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [Pun_Times] [ In reply to ]
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I think her half marathon PR is something like 71 flat or just under. I think going out in a 69 would be a stretch. I agree though it will be fun to watch.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [Pun_Times] [ In reply to ]
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What is the dynamic between the two Nike teams - BTC and Oregon Project? Are they treated differently by Nike (treatment, pay)? Is one thought of as more elite than the other? I don't see any interaction as far as training social media, etc.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [dmagic17] [ In reply to ]
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I don’t think Nike treats them differently. But they are definitely distinct groups for sure. There has been some animosity in the past between them.

I’d say NOP is a bit more elitist. It’s a smaller group, pretty much only top level guys and gals. BTC has their elite sqaud but also has some ‘sub-elite’ runners as well as some youth and masters squads. So from top to bottom it’s a bit bigger. Their (non top level) runners would show up Stumptown cross country series. Tge only time I saw a NOP athlete at a local (Portland) race was when Rupp ran the Holiday Half in 2015 to qualify for the marathon Olympic Trials

Matt
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [logella] [ In reply to ]
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Also - wasn't she pregnant when she ran NY?

"It's good enough for who it's for" - Grandpa Wayne
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2:25:47

Eric Reid
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [flynnzu] [ In reply to ]
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flynnzu wrote:
Also - wasn't she pregnant when she ran NY?

Eh, if she was it would have maybe overlapped by a couple days. I don't think anything that would have impacted performance from a physical standpoint.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [Pun_Times] [ In reply to ]
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I wouldn't call that elitest, I'd call that coach a gaping asshole. Ever heard of Sportsmanship?

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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2;25;33

And her 10k time would suggest that she could run a 1;09+ 1/2 marathon, so probably not going out with the leaders if they are near that pace. I think she will/could go out in about 1;12 flat and run a great race, all supposing she is actually rested and pointing for a good time in this race. There should be a group running that pace, so she should be able to sit in and run her pace, until it is time to go full gas, or struggle in. Seems like that is how most marathons finish for folks that race them..

ANd I would hope her coach has that in mind, fine to have run through her other races, but this is the one she is pointing for, so don't give her a bad taste in her mouth. In fact, she needs to get that bad taste from her one and only marathon, running pregnant and entering brand new territory in racing...
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [monty] [ In reply to ]
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2:24:53
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2:26:03
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2:29:30. Hopefully faster, but I think that's the slowest time she can run and still feel positive about things. 2:30+ = bad day, huge hit to confidence.

Of course, guessing female performance is a whole lot more complex than men's performance. None of the hormonal shifts of menstruation, etc. Hopefully it works out!

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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2:27:23

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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
2;25;33

you just outbid me by 10 seconds

Eric Reid
AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Chapel Hill, NC
Aerodynamic Optimized Bike Fitting, Retul Pre-Purchase Bike Fitting, USAT Level 1 Triathlon Coaching, Nutrition
Ask me: Scody Optimized Speed Suits | CeramicSpeed Oversized Pulley Systems | HUUB Skinsuits and Wetsuits | Ventum Bicycles and Frames
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [ericMPro] [ In reply to ]
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you just outbid me by 10 seconds //

Actually it is 14 seconds, and have you never played the price is right???
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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logella wrote:
She announced this morning that she'll be making here marathon debut at Chicago.

https://www.instagram.com/...ken-by=gwenjorgensen

EDIT: Let's get some predictions started. I'm going with 2:27:13.

No expert, but I’ll take the under.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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