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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2.35.50

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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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HuffNPuff wrote:
hadukla wrote:
Her debut as a runner and not a triathlete! (pinkish)

So what's the guess on times? Her recent races don't seem to be good indicators given she has been running long miles around those events. Assuming it isn't a hot day, anyone thinks she can do sub 2:25?


Chicago is supposed to be pancake flat, but even with the finest weather conditions I don't see her breaking 2:30. Here are the 2017 woman who did break 2:30. Jordan Hasay in number 3 is the only American in that group. I doubt that Gwen will be anywhere near her. Chicago is where Gwen's olympic ambitions are going to get crushed.

Dibaba - 2:18:31
Kosgei - 2:20:22
Hasay - 2:20:57
Perez - 2:24:44
Kipketer - 2:28:05
Weighman - 2:28:45

You may very well be right about her not breaking 2:30 but that doesn't mean her Olympic dreams are over. She's got until Feb. 2020 to get ready and this is only her first season of high mileage. The real test will be how she's running a year from now, not how she's running this fall.

I'm going to say 2:29:45, barely squeaks under 2.5, though I'd love to see her go faster. Quite possible she could also be a bit over 2:30. Don't see her doing the ~2:25 some are predicting, don't think she's been running high mileage long enough, although I'd love to be proven wrong. Still hoping she makes the US Olympic team but realistically she's a long shot.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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On a cool day, I vote 2:24:30 but outside the top 5

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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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Chicago is supposed to be pancake flat, but even with the finest weather conditions I don't see her breaking 2:30. Here are the 2017 woman who did break 2:30. Jordan Hasay in number 3 is the only American in that group. I doubt that Gwen will be anywhere near her.


These BIG World Majors Marathons are all set up with pacers for the front group. If you are NOT able to make that front group, then you are often running on your own, unless, the race organizers set up secondary pacers to pace these sorts of groups - this does happen, but it's rarer. Don't know if this will be the case at Chicago

This is where Gwen may find herself, based on performances to date, if she's running reasonably, and within her means, for a first really serious crack at the marathon. As for times - I would agree with others who have said around or just under 2:30. Chicago is a flat and fast course. I'd love to be proven wrong - just being realistic based on performances going in.

She's got a steep and quick learning curve to work with as she'll really only have this one marathon this fall (Chicago), then maybe one other one next year sometime (Spring, realistically), and then the Olympic Games Marathon Trials (winter 2020).

As for the Olympic Marathon aspirations, Gwen jumped in, just as the U.S. women's marathon rankings, probably doubled in depth of that top-10 or so women in a very short period of time, who all have a shot at those three coveted spots. Of course, it will all come down to one race at the U.S. Olympic Trials on Feb 29, 2020 - https://www.teamusa.org/...Team-Trials-Marathon


Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog
Last edited by: Fleck: Aug 27, 18 16:08
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [tttiltheend] [ In reply to ]
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I'm with you. This will only be her second marathon, and her first with a decent amount of mileage under her belt. For her sake, I'd love to see her go under 2:30, under 2:25 would be awesome and would boost her confidence a lot. Realistically..I'd probably go with 2:31:05.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [nbrowne1] [ In reply to ]
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nbrowne1 wrote:
guessing female performance is a whole lot more complex than men's performance. None of the hormonal shifts of menstruation, etc. Hopefully it works out!

Spoken like a true misogynist.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2:29:36
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Andrew Coggan wrote:
nbrowne1 wrote:
guessing female performance is a whole lot more complex than men's performance. None of the hormonal shifts of menstruation, etc. Hopefully it works out!


Spoken like a true misogynist.

How so? Do you disagree that a woman's performance on a single day has more variables for success than a man's? I find female physiology and effects on endurance performance isn't reported or acknowledged nearly enough.

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2018 Races: UBC Tri - 1st Smile | IM Texas - 199th Frown | IM Canada - 15th & KQ Smile| Superleague Penticton - 4th Smile | IM World Champs - 391stUnsure
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [nbrowne1] [ In reply to ]
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2:27.13

#TeamZoot
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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She went 1:11 in a half and earlier 15:15 in a 5K.

An experienced marathoner who is built for the marathon should take those results to a couple minutes under 2:30, I'd think.

She is clearly not the former, and maybe not the latter. Optimistically, because I think it would be cool for her to do well, I'd say 2:30. Olympic gold in 2020 seems...unlikely. (It would be fun to be wrong, but I think just making the team will be really tough.) 2024? That idea seems interesting.


----
Michael
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2:28:14
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2:26:42 if it's decent and mild weather.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
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She will have a decent amount of sub-elite men to draft off if she goes for 2:29, but I'm guessing she tries to hit half in around 1:13. Hopefully she won't be all alone. I'm guessing 2:26:49

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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a 'strategic' DNF at 17miles...
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2:29:46
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [nbrowne1] [ In reply to ]
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Because in your maleness you ass u me that menstrual cycle phase has a significant impact on performance, when in fact the evidence that it does is weak at best. In doing so, you denigrate women by painting them as victims of their hormones, and are only one step removed from the days when women were considered too fragile to compete in events such as the marathon.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
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Fleck wrote:
Chicago is supposed to be pancake flat, but even with the finest weather conditions I don't see her breaking 2:30. Here are the 2017 woman who did break 2:30. Jordan Hasay in number 3 is the only American in that group. I doubt that Gwen will be anywhere near her.


These BIG World Majors Marathons are all set up with pacers for the front group. If you are NOT able to make that front group, then you are often running on your own, unless, the race organizers set up secondary pacers to pace these sorts of groups - this does happen, but it's rarer. Don't know if this will be the case at Chicago

This is where Gwen may find herself, based on performances to date, if she's running reasonably, and within her means, for a first really serious crack at the marathon. As for times - I would agree with others who have said around or just under 2:30. Chicago is a flat and fast course. I'd love to be proven wrong - just being realistic based on performances going in.

She's got a steep and quick learning curve to work with as she'll really only have this one marathon this fall (Chicago), then maybe one other one next year sometime (Spring, realistically), and then the Olympic Games Marathon Trials (winter 2020).

As for the Olympic Marathon aspirations, Gwen jumped in, just as the U.S. women's marathon rankings, probably doubled in depth of that top-10 or so women in a very short period of time, who all have a shot at those three coveted spots. Of course, it will all come down to one race at the U.S. Olympic Trials on Feb 29, 2020 - https://www.teamusa.org/...Team-Trials-Marathon

The Chicago marathon disallowed pace makers in 2015
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [marklemcd] [ In reply to ]
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They have brought back pacers this year, guessing Rupp is going for the AR.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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Lets call it.... 2:24:40



logella wrote:
She announced this morning that she'll be making here marathon debut at Chicago.

https://www.instagram.com/...ken-by=gwenjorgensen

EDIT: Let's get some predictions started. I'm going with 2:27:13.

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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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I'm in for 2:31:18.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Andrew Coggan wrote:
Because in your maleness you ass u me that menstrual cycle phase has a significant impact on performance, when in fact the evidence that it does is weak at best. In doing so, you denigrate women by painting them as victims of their hormones, and are only one step removed from the days when women were considered too fragile to compete in events such as the marathon.


Oxygen Addict just released a podcast dedicated entirely to this topic: http://www.oxygenaddict.com/...tt-z8gjd-zxc8a-effzn
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [dmagic17] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks, will have a listen. Stacey Sims discusses strategies for mitigating symptoms in a number of episodes on the Fitter Radio podcast. And has a book about female physiology and endurance training called Roar

https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1
2018 Races: UBC Tri - 1st Smile | IM Texas - 199th Frown | IM Canada - 15th & KQ Smile| Superleague Penticton - 4th Smile | IM World Champs - 391stUnsure
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Andrew Coggan wrote:
...that menstrual cycle phase has a significant impact on performance, when in fact the evidence that it does is weak at best. In doing so, you denigrate women by painting them as victims of their hormones, and are only one step removed from the days when women were considered too fragile to compete in events such as the marathon.


Painting of the gender as victims is not my intention. I'll try chose my words differently next time...

Do you mean the published evidence is weak at best? How many woman have you talked to about this? The women I've talked to and listened to on podcasts disagree...

I think discussing a possible physiological scenario for race day time guessing games like this is as relevant as the other variables being discussed like the weather, rabbits, and competition. You also haven't given a guess for Gwen. Play the game with us Andrew Wink

https://www.strava.com/athletes/nbrowne1
2018 Races: UBC Tri - 1st Smile | IM Texas - 199th Frown | IM Canada - 15th & KQ Smile| Superleague Penticton - 4th Smile | IM World Champs - 391stUnsure
Last edited by: nbrowne1: Aug 28, 18 7:39
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [logella] [ In reply to ]
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2:32:00

You're such a Trump ball washer! - Duffy - Feb 8, 17 13:18
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [nbrowne1] [ In reply to ]
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1. Sex, not gender.

2. Yes, the published evidence is weak at best.

3. As for talking to women about what influences their performance, that's why research is required, i.e., so that we don't have to rely on subjective opinions and anecdotal reports. That said, I see your women and podcasts and raise you one Leontien van Moorsel.

4. I'm not into playing guessing games, but if I were, menstrual cycle phase is not one of the factors that I would take into consideration (see point 2 above).
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