These are my key questions toward assessing probability...

1. What is the recent history for hosting events in the region (any races-- running or triathlon) in 2020 or 2021 so far?
2. What is the political will to host outdoor events like these? (Is the political rhetoric positive, negative, or neutral toward events?)
3. What is the recent history related to Covid? (Case trends, death trends, vaccine trends, social restriction trends, etc.?)

Listening to the radio this morning it doesn't sound good for Europe. Less people vaccinated and the variants are wreaking havoc. (I think i heard under 10% vaccinated in Europe and around 25% in the US so far and UK doing better at 40%) Angela Merkel was calling it a new pandemic with the more dangerous and contagious variants. I think it depends on how quickly Europe can get its population vaccinated. In the US we have higher rates of vaccination but our behavior will also determine how soon we get back to full on racing.

While I'm hoping to do my July and September races (half and full IM), I will admit I would NEVER even consider volunteering at such an event (ETA during a pandemic). I'm selfish in that regard. But it's a good point about getting enough people to volunteer during these times.

I think it's a wait and see for most of us (both sides of the pond).

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Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.

I think in the UK we should have races running in July - Sept. Currently over 50% of the adult population has been vaccinated with one shot. By the end of June all the adult population will have been offered at least one shot of the vaccine. Furthermore all of the vulnerable population will have been fully vaccinated as well. By this stage the country should be out of Covid restrictions, which are officially set to end in the 21st June. All going to plan I can't see a reason why we wouldn't be racing in the UK across summer.

On mainland Europe it appears to be a different scenario though. It looks like they are just at the start of their 3rd wave and things are only going to get worse over the next few weeks. Plus vaccine roll out looks to have been a disaster. Im not expecting races to happen on mainland Europe this summer. Maybe around Sept/Oct time if the EU can get their vaccination program working we might see some races in my opinion.

Also a Brit.
And I totally agree with the above.
Outlaw half has been moved back from mid May to late June, and highly optimistic it will take place. (unlike MDot events it's not sited in the middle of a big city but instead on the outskirts. So can readily put distancing in place is the 21st June 'end of restrictions' is pushed back (mid May changes in rules is what is needed here).

In mainland Europe?
Let's simply say we are holidaying in Scotland this year !

In general Europe looks pretty bad right now. Although Danish government just released bare-opening plan last night (we’ve basically been locked Down since x-mas).
It looks good here, But things May change. As of right now, IM Copenhagen looks to be possible, for Danish athletes. As far as foreigners not being pro’s, I wouldn’t get my hopes up. And I Think that’s generally where we are, Pro sports, that’s ok, But a real opening isn’t right now. It will depend very much from country to country. As the plans are now, IM Copenhagen is possible, But things chance. I honestly don’t believe it’ll happen, aside from Danish citizens and pros. That might not be worthwhile to do the event. I’m guessing “no”, But i’m hoping “yes”

Brit living in France.

At this point in time I would say zero chance. We still have a 6pm to 6am curfew and 17 regions have just gone into total lockdown. We have had a restricted lockdown for more than a year.

Cafes, restaurants, bars and cinemas etc. are closed everywhere. We can’t even travel out of department.

Our average daily number of cases has shot up from 21k to 31k in less than a week. Everything is moving in the wrong direction for daily life. An IM with 2,000 athletes just isn’t onto radar.

IM have just postponed a number of June races in Europe now, Hamburg, Staffordshire, Switzerland, and Luxembourg. Most races postponed to Aug/Sept.

Im really surprised that Staffordshire has been postponed given the low incidence rate in the UK and % of adult population that are vaccinated. Was expecting that race to take place. Slightly ominous for what to expect for the rest of the season in mainland Europe (more cancellations up to the end of July?)

Yeah I just received an email about Hamburg. Expected.

I don't think any international travel races are going to happen for ages. The numbers round the world differ so much, that it is impossible to plan any kind of travel. For example there is no way I could have planned to travel to Germany (from UK) for a race in June.
I would like to be able to sign up for some of the British events such as IM UK or Wales, Weymouth etc but cannot as they are sold out. If I were Ironman I would refund all international athletes their money and re-open race spots to domestic athletes, as it will be much more likely for a race to go ahead if it is just domestically based athletes.

Brit - with IM Copenhagen entry.

I really can't see anything happening in Europe at the moment given the state of the constantly increasing cases across the continent, unless its for home nationals only. In the UK we are doing well with Vacinations, but in the 40-44 AG group i'm not due my vaccine until June as it stand at the moment, so look gin at Aug/Sept for the second dose. Would be comfortable lining up until the two doses had been completed.

Anyone would taking on the added risk of volunteering as the swim or bike catcher at an event would certainly need to be fully vaccinated.

it is frustrating have pretty much two season of no racing, but if we stick by what we're asked to do regarding restrictions then the quicker we can get through it.

Hi,

I live in Copenhagen...you should prepare yourself for a cancellation, just saying.

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"see the world as it is not as you want it to be"

Here in Spain some local races up to a few hundreds of people are happening. They are off-road or trail races mostly, where there is a small chance of public assistance. Nothing that goes around downtown areas. Also swimming events, where only the swimmers are allow to enter the building and with time and teams restricted use of the pool for warm-up and so on.

As said before, maybe the best option for these IM events is to refund everyone and start over looking forward 2022?

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STRAVA INSTAGRAM

I would agree but the problem is insurance. If any of them cancel too soon insurance won't cover their losses (this is how it works apparently) so they will cancel/postpone events 4-6 weeks before they are to be held. This sucks for participants, but I would guess most organizers don't have money to throw away.

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"see the world as it is not as you want it to be"

I didn't realise it was to do with insurance. I had assumed timings were driven by when race organisers could agree a new date for the postponement. Always wondered why the likes of IM didn't send out holding e-mails saying that 'the race is being postponed and they are working on a new date' earlier. Guess if makes sense if doing so means they can't claim back on insurance.

Im signed up for IM Frankfurt and pretty much suspect that if Hamburg has been postponed then Frankfurt will be too. So was wondering why they didn't communicate both at the same time. Guess now I have some insight into why!

I was quite surprised to hear that this is/will be the reason for last minute (4-6 weeks before the event) cancellations, but now that I know it does make sense. Its the unfortunate reality of the business side of triathlon. I am sure most organizers would rather cancel earlier rather than later and receive a bunch of nastygram from racers pissed off that they made plans and my have issues getting refunds from hotels and airlines.

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"see the world as it is not as you want it to be"

I see 70.3 Staffordshire her ein the UK is moved back from June to July.

Have any June events on Mainland Europe been moved yet?

https://www.ironman.com/covid-options-europe

I'm rolled over to do Alpe d'Huez triathlon this year.
Wondering if I should just cancel and go somewhere else at this point.

France announced a 4 week complete lockdown with closed schools yesterday. It isn’t looking brilliant.

IM70.3 Switzerland moved from June to August.

I've been racing small events since June 2020 in Florida and there has been no shortage of volunteers. However, wetsuit strippers and bike catchers are niceties that were eliminated as part of COVID-safe race management practices. I'm cautiously optimistic that more European countries will open to vaccinated travelers in the fall allowing more events to happen. The attached article suggests the UK could open as early as 1 July but that's just speculation.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2021/03/29/these-eu-countries-look-most-likely-to-open-to-americans-this-summer/?sh=5e0a5ad26aec

There is a big difference between opening up the border and allowing an IM race.

The current (at least what is openly published) plan in England has the restrictions fully lifted on 21 June - if nothing goes wrong (tri events can start from 17 May in the same plan - tho some other rules mess up at least some events taking place at that time, depending on circumstances.

Wales and Scotland are not on identical paths. But similar.

I can see US folks being allowed into England from July if the USA Vax programme continues well there.

Mainland Europe? No...just can't see it happening.

I was supposed to do the ITU Multisport WC in Almere, Netherlands last Sep. Now I'm losing hope that it will happen this Sep. But if not, I would be happy to come to the U.K. and knock LEJOG off my bucket list.

Challenge St. Pölten confirmed for May the 30th. Need a negative covid test result.

https://www.challenge-family.com/...xtensive-safety-plan

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden