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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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ErickBar wrote:
ANYONE GOT A BIKE COURSE ELEVATION MAP FOR THIS COURSE???

4:03 isn't crazy crazy fast is it?

That's what I was thinking.
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [zedzded] [ In reply to ]
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zedzded wrote:
ErickBar wrote:
ANYONE GOT A BIKE COURSE ELEVATION MAP FOR THIS COURSE???

4:03 isn't crazy crazy fast is it?


That's what I was thinking.

It's not crazy fast but it was a tough course
Think people got a bit carried away with this victory here, Kona dominance and all
He has the potential clearly but let's wait and see how the rest of the year unfolds or if he even wants to do Kona. I think he talked about 2020 tokyo as well
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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ErickBar wrote:
ANYONE GOT A BIKE COURSE ELEVATION MAP FOR THIS COURSE???

4:03 isn't crazy crazy fast is it?

I don't know personally, but the article said he broke the course record by 10 minutes, fwiw.

Some fast women had slower times as well. I vote hard course.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [asianzone] [ In reply to ]
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asianzone wrote:
zedzded wrote:
ErickBar wrote:
ANYONE GOT A BIKE COURSE ELEVATION MAP FOR THIS COURSE???

4:03 isn't crazy crazy fast is it?


That's what I was thinking.


It's not crazy fast but it was a tough course
Think people got a bit carried away with this victory here, Kona dominance and all
He has the potential clearly but let's wait and see how the rest of the year unfolds or if he even wants to do Kona. I think he talked about 2020 tokyo as well

Yeah just read it was pretty hilly.
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [Jigsy] [ In reply to ]
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Jigsy wrote:
I'm sure Challenge loves the BBC.

http://www.bbc.com/...t/triathlon/39678393

Haha. Now how does WTC handle this. Imfringementof intellectual property or free PR?
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [shady] [ In reply to ]
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shady wrote:
Bushehri wrote:
Lets say he wins St George and qualifies for 70.3 Worlds, will he not feature again until the championship race? Or does he plan to go around smashing 70.3 races? Maybe a 140.6 this year? Any insight...[/quote

Lemme fix that for you..

WHEH he wins St George..... (WHEN he wins Worlds !! WHEN he wins....)
Got that !!?? WHEN!.....WHEN!....From now on its WHEN with this BAMF

Im not going to argue against the fact he will do well, but still a bit early to hand out medals.

Surely he is a contender in just about any race, but I predict he will be alot more dominant in 70.3 than 140.6 the first 2 years (hence why he plans to race 70.3 this year and 140.6 next - which of course is the only right approach imo)

Also - do not forget that he will have to face courses less favourable to his strengts (flatter bike), harder competition (fex gomez, whom I believe has a better long distance talent), and more adverse conditions (heat/humid!). He might fight off all these challenges as well, but on no account will it be any kind of walkover! The long course field of athletes may have less depth than ITU, but I still think the pointy end of the field deserves some respect in that the top ITU-dude cannot just show up an demolish everyone in what is quite a different sport than ITU (im still curious to see how AB's tip-toe style of running holds up in the IM marathon)
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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MI_Mumps wrote:
I don't know personally, but the article said he broke the course record by 10 minutes, fwiw.

To put the course record in perspective, this was only the second time Challenge has run this race. Thomas Steger who just started doing triathon in 2012 won last year with a 4:14:25. The pro field that followed him to the finish contained several other not very well known men. So getting the record by 10 minutes is not really that big a deal. St. George will be much more telling. If Ali just rides and runs away from everyone at St. George that will make quite a statement.

YMMV,

Hugh

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
Last edited by: sciguy: Apr 23, 17 5:39
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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There's no way he rides/ runs away...is there? I wonder how long he'll stay away from Sanders/ Kienle.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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MI_Mumps wrote:
There's no way he rides/ runs away...is there? I wonder how long he'll stay away from Sanders/ Kienle.

It's really tough to get much of a "read" on the Gran Canaria result. A 25:20 wet suited, flat, salt water swim certainly had to be an easy effort for the likes of Alistair. We have no real idea how tough the bike course was beyond the map makes it look hilly. Emma Pallant ran a 1:15:34 and even though I know she's a good runner that makes me have to think the run course was a few minutes short. For reference at the 2016 70.3 WC the fasted female run was Melissa Hauschildt who did a 1:18:43. At the same race LS ran a 1:10:34. so over 8 minutes faster than the top woman. Ali was just over 4 minutes faster than Pallant but perhaps he wasn't even breaking a sweat. Much stronger proof of the pudding will come in a couple of weeks. I think we need a prediction pool on this one.

Hugh

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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I don't think his time, breaking the course record etc is particularly indicative of how he'll perform at St George. One would imagine that he would beat the Challenge GC field by several minutes, but also that he wasn't absolutely smashing himself once he had a significant cushion - he's a savvy racer and anything else is just wasted effort.

He'll definitely go quicker at St George but whether he goes quicker than Kienle etc is definitely up for grabs.
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
MI_Mumps wrote:
There's no way he rides/ runs away...is there? I wonder how long he'll stay away from Sanders/ Kienle.


It's really tough to get much of a "read" on the Gran Canaria result. A 25:20 wet suited, flat, salt water swim certainly had to be an easy effort for the likes of Alistair. We have no real idea how tough the bike course was beyond the map makes it look hilly. Emma Pallant ran a 1:15:34 and even though I know she's a good runner that makes me have to think the run course was a few minutes short. For reference at the 2016 70.3 WC the fasted female run was Melissa Hauschildt who did a 1:18:43. At the same race LS ran a 1:10:34. so over 8 minutes faster than the top woman. Ali was just over 4 minutes faster than Pallant but perhaps he wasn't even breaking a sweat. Much stronger proof of the pudding will come in a couple of weeks. I think we need a prediction pool on this one.

Hugh


Indeed.

I think there is no way he gaps the front swim packin st George. Hell stick with it and go first out of T1, is my guess.

The bike wil be real exiting. Its hilly so i dont think you'll get the big front pack train. Will surely be exiting! Maybe LS and kienle bridge up? Allthough I can also see ab posting a real strong bike! Hard to predict but my guess is alot of the probable winners (ab, don, LS, kienle) are within 1-2 min out of t2. I also think Win margin will be small.
Last edited by: lovegoat: Apr 23, 17 7:20
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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There you go...from a Strava friend who raced yesterday.


Sr. Salitre
Last edited by: FranR: Apr 23, 17 9:10
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [FranR] [ In reply to ]
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close to 100ft gain/mile. no joke for a 70.3 course. and his 1:11, with its super even splits, shows he was out at a training pace. St George is going to be really interesting.

wovebike.com | Wove on instagram
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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milesthedog wrote:
close to 100ft gain/mile. no joke for a 70.3 course. and his 1:11, with its super even splits, shows he was out at a training pace. St George is going to be really interesting.


From the Strava data I've looked at, Gran Canaria has ~ 4600 ft of climbing while St. George is more on the order of 3600'. It also looks as if GC was about a mile short with St. George close to dead on for distance. The way the vertical is distributed is quite radically different between the two.

Gran Canaria half

St. George 70.3



Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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I think the long sustained climb at St George will favor Brownlee

Gran Canaria:
https://www.strava.com/activities/953050171



wovebike.com | Wove on instagram
Last edited by: milesthedog: Apr 23, 17 14:44
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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milesthedog wrote:
I think the long sustained climb at St George will favor Brownlee

Gran Canaria:
https://www.strava.com/activities/953050171

I definatley think the long climb is good for Brownlee, but I dont think that is his biggest edge over the long-course-guys. Long sustained climbs make it more of a w/kg-competion than the shorter, more bust-like riding you get from a profile like Gran-Can (short hills where you power up and rest on the decent). The bursty-type riding gives AB a real edge from his ITU-style of racing. Also - the Gran-Can profile I understand was super technical with lots of turns etc, which I guess also favoured AB vs a typical long-course-guy. I dont think AB has any advantage over f.ex Kienle/LS in a pure w/kg..

So in sum I think the GranCan course fits AB better vs long course guys than St. George, but still he'll for sure go fast in St. George.
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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As AB says himself. This is a hilly bike course so isn't really a proper test of his 70.3 potential. He mentioned in his pre race interview about trying to transition to long sustained efforts from the stop start of ITU racing. St George will be a proper test. Clear he felt pretty good on the bike as his run wasn't slow and even splits.

Now for some ill informed guessing and extrapolation!

Lets say that AB is capable of a 30:30 10k after a hard bike. The Jack Daniels running calculator says 1:07:12.9 for a half!

"I have been reflecting upon Felip Ospaly's recent run time of 1:08:50 and his overall time of 3:46:02 at IM Austria 70.3 and can't imagine that either (especially that run, a 5:16 pace) has ever been bettered. Does anyone know of any faster times on a reasonably legal course? !"

Has anybody running quicker than 1:08:50? Rather a tough order at your first try but this is the only double Olympic Champ!
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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MI_Mumps wrote:
There's no way he rides/ runs away...is there? I wonder how long he'll stay away from Sanders/ Kienle.

Maybe he just hangs out the front like a carrot, for long enough that they burn a lot of matches bridging up to him. Then all to play for on the run, on fresher legs.

29 years and counting
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
newManUK wrote:

Lets say that AB is capable of a 30:30 10k after a hard bike. The Jack Daniels running calculator says 1:07:12.9 for a half!


You're not taking into account that one would have to bike an extra 50k before doing the half marathon so I'm not so certain that things would scale the way you hope. Then again if anyone can run a great time after a hard bike it would be AB.

Who where you quoting regarding Felip Ospaly? The 70.3 mentioned took place back in 2010 so not really a such a recent result. The next couple of weeks will move by at a glacial pace like Christmas coming for some kids.


This post here

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/?post=2848309
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [newManUK] [ In reply to ]
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newManUK wrote:
sciguy wrote:
newManUK wrote:

Lets say that AB is capable of a 30:30 10k after a hard bike. The Jack Daniels running calculator says 1:07:12.9 for a half!


You're not taking into account that one would have to bike an extra 50k before doing the half marathon so I'm not so certain that things would scale the way you hope. Then again if anyone can run a great time after a hard bike it would be AB.

Who where you quoting regarding Felip Ospaly? The 70.3 mentioned took place back in 2010 so not really a such a recent result. The next couple of weeks will move by at a glacial pace like Christmas coming for some kids.


This post here

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/?post=2848309


I just tried looking at Alistair's 28:32 open 10k time with Ale Martinez's adaptation of Jack Daniel's chart. The problem is that it only goes as far as a 29:24 open 10K. With that entered it projects a 30:31 Tri 10K and a 1:07:27 Tri half marathon so pretty much on the order of what you came up with. Yikes!!!!!!!

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
Last edited by: sciguy: Apr 24, 17 3:41
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
newManUK wrote:
sciguy wrote:
newManUK wrote:

Lets say that AB is capable of a 30:30 10k after a hard bike. The Jack Daniels running calculator says 1:07:12.9 for a half!


You're not taking into account that one would have to bike an extra 50k before doing the half marathon so I'm not so certain that things would scale the way you hope. Then again if anyone can run a great time after a hard bike it would be AB.

Who where you quoting regarding Felip Ospaly? The 70.3 mentioned took place back in 2010 so not really a such a recent result. The next couple of weeks will move by at a glacial pace like Christmas coming for some kids.


This post here

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/?post=2848309


I just tried looking at Alistair's 28:32 open 10k time with Ale Martinez's adaptation of Jack Daniel's chart. The problem is that it only goes as far as a 29:24 open 10K. With that entered it projects a 30:31 Tri 10K and a 1:07:27 Tri half marathon so pretty much on the order of what you came up with. Yikes!!!!!!!


Without necessarily disagreeing that AB could run one of the fastest splits seen I also think those calculators are not necessarily THAT accurate on the really pointy end of the spectrum. If I understand correctly they merely calculate speed based on x% of some functional threshold. I would think also other aspects - fex fuelling - would limit hoe fast the elite/world class can go.
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
newManUK wrote:
sciguy wrote:
newManUK wrote:

Lets say that AB is capable of a 30:30 10k after a hard bike. The Jack Daniels running calculator says 1:07:12.9 for a half!


You're not taking into account that one would have to bike an extra 50k before doing the half marathon so I'm not so certain that things would scale the way you hope. Then again if anyone can run a great time after a hard bike it would be AB.

Who where you quoting regarding Felip Ospaly? The 70.3 mentioned took place back in 2010 so not really a such a recent result. The next couple of weeks will move by at a glacial pace like Christmas coming for some kids.


This post here

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/?post=2848309


I just tried looking at Alistair's 28:32 open 10k time with Ale Martinez's adaptation of Jack Daniel's chart. The problem is that it only goes as far as a 29:24 open 10K. With that entered it projects a 30:31 Tri 10K and a 1:07:27 Tri half marathon so pretty much on the order of what you came up with. Yikes!!!!!!!
Well since he has gone sub 30 several times in itu I definitely wouldn't rule out a sub 1:07 in the future. Frodo ran 1:09 at St:George so that is the time to beat. Betting that the winner goes sub 3:45 as well.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Challenge Gran Can - Brownlee [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Well whatever happens I am very excited to see the outcome. Is there any decent coverage of St George?

I only rode past AB's house the other day. Didn't see a big Scott truck delivering any bikes....
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