In short nope - it was a wonderful victory in Spain however he is not in the same class as Lance

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[reply]In short nope - it was a wonderful victory in Spain however he is not in the same class as Lance[/reply]
Who is though? I would like to see how well Heras could do in TDF if he was riding for GC--He can climb--how does he do on flat TT?

Can he... probably not since he is too much of a climber. As undisputed team leader, the best he will every do is top five. The only pure climbers I can remember in the last 20 or so years that have won are Pantani and Delgado. Coincidentially, both were dopers. Lance, Riis, Ullrich, Indurain, Lemond, Roche, and Hinnuilt (sic?) were all much more well rounded and could time trial well. Most of the non-pure climbers just mentioned have placed on the podium of world cup races and worlds. Not so with Heras.

Will he... maybe under another sponsor. I doubt US Postal wants a foreign leader for an american team.

How about Tyler in 2005 or 2006, how about Levi L. Anybody else?

Good question.

Indeed, it will be very interesting to see what the US Postal team does post-Lance, which could be as soon as 2005. He has droppped some hints that next year after bagging the 6th TDF win, he will consider retiring. I am wondering if the USPostal Service will even stay in the game as a sponsor. The wole program revolves around Lance winning at the Tour. I know that Heras has done very well at the Vuelta and others( Hincapie, Ekimov) have done well in other single day races and some of the classics, but the entire program for the past 5 years has been focussed on Lance and the TDF. It's a great sponsorship deal for the US Postal Service abroad and particularly in the US, because Armstrong now has a huge profile, but once he is gone, then what?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Agreed, Fleck.

I think that Postal's only shot of continuing once Lance is done/gone will be to have another American as its primary TDF GC contender. I really can't see USPS forking over the cash to sponsor a team with a foreign leader.

What people are forgetting is that Tyler isn't that young. He's nearly Lances' age (1 or 2 year difference). If he's going to win it's gonna be in the next 1-2 years.

The other posters are right that Heras is not as good a GC rider as Lance but... hold onto your hats... nobody else is either. There will never be another Lance and when postal goes looking for a new leader, they are going to have to take a big step down from what they have right now. That, coupled with what having Lance has done for the team, is why I think they will let Lance stay around as long as he wants, even if he pulls a Lemond and shows up in lousy shape in '05 or '06. I don't think Lance will do that but I am a little surprised he didn't quit after this year's tour so what do I know.

But I digress. I have thought a lot about this and I used to think that the only reason Heras kept working for Lance rather than going out and getting a team of his own was because they promised him the team when Lance quit. I have started to doubt that recently for a number of reasons: First, things I have read suggest that Roberto is getting all he expects to get from postal right here, right now (lots of money and a team to support him in the vuelta). Second, I think Heras is more keenly aware than anyone of all the reasons posted here (plus others) why he will have a lot of trouble winning the tour. Third, he isn't that young now (29) and he will be even older when Lance quits. The chances that he is going to turn into a great time trialer (or even any kind of GC threat) at the age of 30 are slim.

Bottom line is that I don't think that the spot "belongs" to Roberto. When Lance calls it quits, Postal will look at what's out there in the way of available leaders and consider their options. Roberto will certainly have a shot at it and may have a leg up since he will be established there, possibly be under contract, etc. but I don't think anyone can say what will happen.

Incidentally, I don't think its a foregone conclusion that postal's next leader will be an American and I think its highly, highly unlikely that it will be Levi. Lance despises Levi because of the way he left Postal and things he has said and done since. I can't imagine Lance is the only one in the organization who feels that way. Even if they could somehow see past that, Levi knew he was burning his bridges. He wouldn't have done what he did unless he never wanted to go back. Tyler maybe but he is even older than Lance. If he rode for them in '05 (again, assuming Lance quits after '04) it would be one year only. I love that we have an American (a texan, no less) leading the only American team in the euro peloton but I agree with a post a couple of weeks ago that said that usps has to look for and hire good riders, not just americans. Limiting it to Americans will weaken the team and make it look like the riders who ride for them got their jobs because of their nationality, not their skills. That is the kind of thing third-rate French teams do. I'd like to think that we are better than that.

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Anyone who tells you they're as fast now as they were when they were 18...
sure wasn't very fast when they were 18.

Rich, I agree with your points, namely:

"usps has to look for and hire good riders, not just americans. Limiting it to Americans will weaken the team and make it look like the riders who ride for them got their jobs because of their nationality, not their skills. That is the kind of thing third-rate French teams do. I'd like to think that we are better than that."

However, the United States Postal Service (the organization, not the team) has been catching a lot of flack for their substantial financial commitment to the team--when they themselves are operating in the red. From a public perception standpoint, Lance Armstrong is USPS. I honestly think its unlikely that the Postal service would continue their sponsorship if an American wasn't at the helm--they're a stars and stripes kind of organization.

All the posts are assuming that USPS will continue their sponsorship after 2004. The Postal Service is way in the red and reports are that it spends $40-80 per year on the team. It will be hard to continue spending that kind of money, particularly if Armstrong loses next year.

And no, Heras cannot replace Lance. He's a great "second-tier" Tour rider, but when it comes down to it he can't hang with the Ulrichs, Armstrongs, Hamiltons, and even Zubeldias. Short of LeBlanc "giro-izing" the Tour and turning it into a battle of the 90 lb waifs, I don't see him ever winning the big one.

I remember reading somewhere this last spring, maybe on the USPS cycling site or somesuch that US Postal will leave sponsorship once Lance retires.

First off Delgado can hardly be called a pure climber or a doper. He was a very good time trialist and never failed a doping test. He did test positive for a nonbanned substance.

Second, Heras is definately not a second tier rider. I'm a big Hamilton fan, but Heras has won two Grand tours and placed highly in others, when working for someone else. That said I doubt he'll win a TdF because of the emphasis on time trials and the fact that Ullrich will likely win one or two after Lance.

By "second tier", I meant "non-Tour de France". I knew that didn't sound quite right. As Simoni and Aitor Gonzalez so gracefully proved this year, 3rd place in the Tour de France is harder than 1st in the other Tours.

The next Tour phenom will probably be a young rider who bursts onto the scene, not one of the current good riders. That could be someone like Cadel Evans, Mike Rogers, Ivan Basso, Tom Danielson, or someone even more obscure. Nobody knew who Jan Ulrich was in June of 1996, but we all knew he who was by the end of July, 1996.

And in the metaphorical sense, it will probably be a long time before anyone "replaces" Armstrong. He is likely to go down in history as the best ever Tour de France rider, and probably one of the 10 best overall riders of all time.

I don't consider Indurain well rounded; at least not like the others mentioned. 5 straight Tour wins with 0 victories in any stages that weren't time trials. Obviously he could climb well enough to not lose significant amounts to the climbers, but there is no doubt his TT abilities are what won him his Tours.

In reply to "I don't consider Indurain well rounded; at least not like the others mentioned..."

See below... 3 times on the world road podium and one classic. Year 1990
Team Banesto
3rd.- Spanish National Championship
1st.- San Sebastian Classic (Spain) Year 1991 Team Banesto
1st.- Tour de France (France)
2nd.- Vuelta a España (Spain)
3rd.- World Professional Road Race Championship
Year 1992
Team Banesto
1st.- Tour de France (France)
1st.- Giro d' Italia (Italy)
Year 1993
Team Banesto
1st.- Tour de France (France)
1st.- Giro d' Italia (Italy)
2nd.- World Professional Road Race Championship

Year 1994
Team Banesto
1st.- Tour de France (France)
3rd.- Giro d' Italia (Italy)
World Hour Record: 53.040 kms. Year 1995 Team Banesto
1st.- Tour de France (France) - FOR RECORD 5th CONSECUTIVE TIME -
2nd.- World Professional Road Race Championship
1st.- World Individual Time Trial Championship
1st.- Dauphiné Liberé (France)
1st.- Midi-Libre (France) Year 1996 Team Banesto
1st.- Dauphiné Liberé (France)

I don't hardly see how that proves his well-roundedness, especially in the context of the Tour De France. Pantani won the Tour, but never won a TT. He won overall because of his climbing abilities. The opposite is true for Indurain. He was incredible at TT's, but not great at climbing. So I really don't see what relevance his palmares has on this discussion. Winning races doesn't mean you're well rounded as far as the Tour is concerned. Pettachi has 24 victories this year alone, so I guess that makes him well rounded? I think not. How many career victories does Cipo have? Is he well rounded?

So let's ignore his other great achievements for a moment. Let's talk about the Tour instead. Here, I'll post a list of all of his victories in the Tour that aren't TT's. Ready, here it is:

yes, there will be an other lance...of course...

after anquetil, merckx, hinault, indurain everyone said the same thing...took only 3 years after indurain's retirement to see an other one going for 5 in a row.
even if Lance takes a 6th tour, and even though he is one of the very best riders of all time, so far the best rider of all times (even for the tour and even if Lance takes the 6th one) remains Merckx.
Lance has to spend an other like 40 days in yellow to rival merckx in the tour (not to mention merckx took the giro and the vuelta quite a few times!)

Now, if Lance retires, who will take his place? well Ulrich is like a good candidate to win the tour.

Hamilton is getting old too, but then the dude can do a tour with a broken collarbone...

I'd say Basso, Zubielda, Nozal, Chavanel, Danielson and all these mountain bikers coming to RR that are kick ass riders.

That's interesting. I'm glad this year's win has him thinking that way and I'd like nothing better than to see him prove me wrong but I still wonder if he is top-3 GC material simply because of the time the big guys will take out of him on flat TTs.

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Anyone who tells you they're as fast now as they were when they were 18...
sure wasn't very fast when they were 18.

No, there will never be another Lance. Most of us will live to see someone win 5, tours again, maybe even 6 or 7. There have certainly been better bike racers before and we will likely see someone better come along again, perhaps even soon. Maybe we'll even see a better grand tour rider but there will never be another Lance. The cancer, the comeback, the tour wins and even now as he warms to the Euros (and they to him) in his old age, he remains a dyed-in-the-wool flag-waving, shit-talking texan.

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Anyone who tells you they're as fast now as they were when they were 18...
sure wasn't very fast when they were 18.

ok. if you talk personality, then I agree. However, this can be said to about everyone.
for shit-talking, Merckx and Hinault can also do the job :-)
As for the Euros, they liked him a lot already in 99...
yes they were some idiots BSing up the climbs, but it was not the majority...even Lance said so.
The cancer comeback made him extremely popular over there too...it's not like cancer strikes only on this side of the atlantic.

I just wished we would see a bit more of Lance, instead of a couple of classics, the dauphine and the tour.

I recall reading an interview with lance where he said that on robertos best climbing days he can't stay with him. Lance also proved this year that he wasn't nearly as strong as in yrs past. hereas had a bad tdf as well.
It is easier being the team leader the being the guy who has to shred the rivals on climbs and pare the field down. He trains to climb, attack rivals on the climbs, shred whats left of the field and let lance cruise as far up as possible.
Give Roberto a team, as they have done for Lance, to support you where you are the weakest, have several of the climbers at or near your caliber to pull you along and drop other riders then toss in a bunch of other high level riders who can control the pace over the flats and rollers as usps has done for lance and bingo I think he can win the TDF.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

What about Floyd Landis? I know he's no spring chicken, but he can TT and climb, right? Not at Lance's level, but he has potential....

cholla

I read (can't remember where - cyclingnews probably) Landis was being groomed for the leader's role until his injury. Not sure if he'll ever get back to the same level though.

There is a pretty good chance that USPSPBBF will explode once Lance leaves - there are a lot of very good riders being paid a lot of money to ride support roles. Hincapie and Heeswijk (sp?) could go to a classics team, Ekimov will probably retire with Lance, Rubiera and Heras will take huge paycuts and lead smaller teams, Beltran will ride as a lieutenant somewhere, Landis can join Rasmussen, Martinez and Evans on an all-climbing, all-the-time MTB All-Start squad.

The 'next Lance-Indurain-Hinault' probably won't be known for a couple of years. Lots of guys with potential out there, but most are significantly behind Lance and Indurain's development based on their age. Wasn't Lance 24 or something when he won World's?