No chance given your current numbers unless you felt you still have tremendous upside and potential. You’re like 40-45 minutes from a qualifying time in the M35-39 age group at most races. Making up 40+ minutes if you’re a 6+ hour finisher is not that hard. Going from 5 to 4:20 is very difficult and unlikely.

The only way would be to try and game the system by showing up at a late qualifying race and praying the roll down gods are working for you.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I think it really depends how far (If at all) the slots roll at your race. Good luck.

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- Jordan

My Strava

Qualify no, roll down for a WC not in the States, yes.

How about the same time in 60 - 64 age group?

You don’t say how much training you’ve done to get your current times. If those times are off of very little training, you may have more room to improve.

Focus on getting faster on the shorter races (5k 10k)

Get a coach.

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USAT Level II- Ironman U Certified Coach

at st. george 70.3 last year (one of the biggest and most competitive 70.3s), towards the end of awards and about to begin slot allocation they asked of the crowd: "who is here for 70.3 WC allocation, raise your hand!" upon seeing the crowd and rough number of hands they followed with: "ok let us count, keep your hands raised, and if there are less than 100 of you everyone here gets to go!"

so yea, anyone can qualify.

Helpful. Thanks.

Where were 70.3 WC held for that qualification?

I qualified in roll down with a slower time in a 70.3 but I'm (45-49) - times are highly course dependent eg Nice a 5.05 would be quite a decent time whereas it would be pretty slow on a flat course with wetsuit swim.

In a non USA non Europe race (those places esp Europe the Std often very high) somewhere far from the wc venue smaller entry list, some places u would be close to qualifying maybe without even rolldown, best chance would be really early in season, near to Kona or late in season, often a new race or no pros start list place, smaller IM 70.3. Pick developing countries or places far from the wc and hope for roll down spots - eg taupo 2019 u have zero chance for qualifying in 2020 but taupo 2021 maybe no one would want to go to wherever it is in 2021.

Be prepared if u qualify to be humbled by super fast guys at wc but its an awesome experience...

Oh and get a coach, power meter etc and get as fast as u can obviously will help the most. Your AG is tougher than many with not so many slots but it can be done with some planning and foresight.

Are you male or female? If you are female, look for races that have Women for Tri slots also. That will boost your chances further.

I qualified in my second 70.3 at 4:46 due to rolldown so yes its possible. That said, your attitude suggests that it might be tough. You're reasonably young, never had a coach and not horrible in any of the three. If you want to qualify then get a coach and train harder. I went from 5:25 down to 4:29 in 18 months. If you want to get there without doing much work, sure maybe you can get a rolldown spot. Taupo is far and expensive to get to so many spots will roll down but instead, why not just bust your ass for a season, get down to 4:30 and have a much higher shot of qualifying. Plus this way you will have actually earned it rather than just getting lucky.

I’m 35-39 too. Went from 5:59 Augusta 2018 to 5:13 Haines City 2019 to 4:48 Augusta 2019 and hope to hit around 4:20-4:30 Augusta 2020.

Augusta had 3 slots this year for M35-39. Third slot went to a 4:39 finisher.

Taupo is so far though - id rather just drive to Utah....

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https://www.strava.com/...tes/zachary_mckinney

Not like I could probably qualify right now, but in talking with my wife about it, she would much rather go to Nice, than to Taupo. I would agree with her.

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- Jordan

My Strava

Yeah Nice would be nice to visit. I am just paranoid about putting my bike on a plane.

Maybe they’ll go to Nice in a few years again for WC and you can tryout. Sounds like a win/win if your wife is already onboard with that scenario.

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https://www.strava.com/...tes/zachary_mckinney

What race are you targeting - how many hours per week do you have to train? You might want to focus on cycling if running is giving you injuries.

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https://www.strava.com/...tes/zachary_mckinney

South Africa

You might get lucky and score a slot at rolldown. I'm hoping to qualify at NC next week. If everything goes well I think I can go high 4:2x (my PR is 4:34) but I don't think it's enough to get a slot in M35-39.

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What's your CdA?

Yes. No one from the east coast of the US are going to New Zealand for thanksgiving

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

haha this sounds hilarious but true

- ‘shit triathletes say’

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https://www.strava.com/...tes/zachary_mckinney

If you can finish in under the time cut off you have a chance depending on where you race. Slots still roll all the way through the field and no one wants them depending on the time of year and location of the race

Absolutely this.

Do Chattanooga 70.3 next year and stick around for the ceremony. Basically, anyone that wants to pay 450 dollars to go to New Zealand will get a slot.

$450 NZD so about $300 US

If I hadn’t already been I would go. The USD is strong

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

It was $540 (500+40 active fee) and it was USD. But we can save on the actual trip costs.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo