I'm just hella impressed that he could run a 1:18 in a HIM. That's a solid time - I was expecting more like slower than 1:20 given that his marathon PR is like 2:40, and you know he's going to have to slightly overcook the bike to compensate for his running.

Kind of funny to say Lance's weakness is running, when the guy can throw up a 1:18 HIM run at his age. Dang freaky genetics.

Turns out it was a 1:25. They had some problems with timing today. Go check the results now.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

You just said the same thing about three different times! Yes on all your points: he knows how to bike, his run is good but probably the weak link, and we WILL have to wait and see.

Ahh - that makes a LOT more sense. (Pats self on back for accurately predicting his run split LOL)

Those conditions must have been horrific. To see Potts run a 1:19 let's ya know it was Mad Max out there....ouch. I just had this conversation with a friend of mine who grew up swimming with LA in Plano. I will admit I'm a big fan and love to watch him so I'm biased, but the guy knows how to peak and made a career out of slowly building for one big shabang performance!

Ya Lance can run with the top group and give him lots of credit for doing it but he can't take 1st for several races now.
Why? Because his run sucks and they ran him down to win it.

Why you trying to bust him out on the internet? Let the man do what he do...

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I got nothing.

Pretty strong words for a guy who just started retraining for these specific races this year. He is beating most pros who only train for tris for years. How about we give him some time, im sure he will impress us all. I hope he does great just to irritate all the haters. Im enjoying it and impressed.

To op...great thinking maybe hes gonna ulrich them all in the run! :-)

It would seem to make sense that Lance and Chris would work together on the bike in Kona and either put a ton of time on the rest of the field or a LOT of hurt in their run. The question is how bad will they hurt themselves with ultra fast bike splits.

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

Let me just say 1 thing about this plan. With cycling, he never had to "qualify" to make the Tour. Atleast on the surface, Lance/WTC is going through the right channels to get Lance "KPR'd" and not have to back door his way in. So, what that means is, by having to "qualify" (did I read correctly that he added St. Croix as a late addition to his schedule), how many matches is he burning? He rode Paris Nice or Dauphine as tune ups, etc, and I'm sure he's doing the same thing for many of these races, but at the same time, I'm also guessing he's seriously having to figure out the racing part of in terms of what he can do on the bike that will affect his run legs.

Lance is a stud professional in everything he does, nutrition, race prep, racing evaluation, equipment. He certainly wont half ass this attempt to give it a serious go at Kona. If this is what helps everyone think Lance is going to win it or be a serious contender than by all means, believe in this plan.

I'm in no way seeing this as anything but simply the qualifying process so that all the pro's dont make a stink about it if, Lance just showed up on Kona race mourning without "qualifying".

And of course, if somehow Lance doesnt make it on KPR, you can bet he'll be there, what was it $1mil was exchanged between Livestrong/WTC to essentially make that happen. I just think he's professional/respectful enough of the sport that he doesnt want to back door his way into this race.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

well said, sir.

I agree on some level with the OP. But I do not feel he is tanking anything. He is in the middle of a trial and error process that is likely moving in a very positive direction. As for what has been said regarding KPR, he will race IF he qualifies (which he will). However, if something should derail that from happening, he will NOT race. He will not race without qualifying like any other pro. He will not take a handout in this process.

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Swimmer
http://www.usprotri.com/LAMASTRA.html
http://www.bodyphyxinternational.com

Lance is breaking hearts in every race he does. People say he can't run with the top Pro's and that baffles me? If it takes 9 miles to catch Lance, and only a few can catch him…then you’re running quite fast. Sure Potts and Doch can out run him, but I don't call Potts and Doch tier 2 triathletes because they can't bike with him. Lance is running faster the Chris Lieto has ever run, and Lieto has a few big pro wins under his belt. Lance surely aint racing easy races and he is now clearly focused on Kona.

After IMF, we will start to see how "big bike legs" can affect the dynamics of his IM racing. Running someone down in an IM is tactically different. The pace of the run is slower, the catch takes longer, and the entire race is more than twice as long if you look at the clock. Sure the distance is double, but the time will be closer to another hour of racing. How will that effect LA? Who knows and until then, we can all guess on paper what will happen. The fact that he rode a recon on the IMF course, he is going to let a 'bit' more out on the bike but he still won't show all of his cards.

The Lance of the 90's focused on one race and used everything else as training. He is a number, watts and grams 'kind of guy.' Does anyone think he is not looking at his watts and dialing in a race plan on the bike? Does anyone not think he is not running intervals designed to run the magic number? Does anyone think that LA doesn't know how to have best equipment from head to toe? He will race KONA with a detailed plan that was designed to win the race. He aint training for 2nd.

Lance may have a plan, but can his body run quick enough to win? The longer race may be slower, but gives the chasers more time to catch him in their preferred discipline rather than his. If your analysis of Lieto is correct, then his tactic should be be to sit on LA on the bike and not work with him since LA will beat him on the run, so leaving LA to do all the work on the bike.

when i first saw results i was like andy potts running a 1:12 since when? and it croix, but good to know that the results are fixed

You're missing one point though, Lieto will believe he can outrun LA. He should be able to, CL ran a 1:14xx? in an 1/2 iron last year right? If CL and LA work together on the bike in Kona, it will be the best race to date. I would expect them to work together and have 15minutes on the field. Is 15 minutes enough time? (I'm getting excited and is only May)

Fair point. I'm not sure a 15 minute lead will no enough. I expect LA to run slower than many on ST seem to think him capable of.

I have not seen anyone on ST think he is going to run "fast". I suspect he runs anywahere from 2:55 - 3:15 at Kona. If he can run 2:55 he has a chance and he would not need a 15 minute lead. History also suggests that Kona will have a few surprises in store. Mechanical issues, a bad day from a favorite or two, god forbid a crash, a last minute injury.

There have been a number of posts in various threads estimating Lance's run time. But you are right, no one can know until the day.

I would expect them to work together and have 15minutes on the field.

I thought drafting wasn't allowed?

I've thought about this a lot from a strategical perspective. Hear me out.

Lance has to qualify for Kona, He doesn't have to win every event.... Honestly, why would he? Would you want to throw down Pocket Aces before the flop? or slow play it and win the grand prize? I'm not saying he will win Kona, but I think a podium finish is a real possibility... So.. here is the tactic

Everyone knows he is going to lead off the bike... so you can't surprise anyone with this. He might as well see how much time he can put into the pro's with short bike efforts to gauge how much time he will be able to earn at kona. Now, once off the bike, if he could run a 1:14 Half... why would he? Does he want everyone to know he can run this fast? So that they don't let him get a big lead in kona? No, if everyone thinks they can run him down... they may let him go off the front by 10-15 minutes.... now... what if he has been sandbagging his runs in these halfs just to qualify... and finally unleashes he true run and they never real him back in? That right there is perfect tactics for building up to his 1 race a year.... Don't lay all the cards out there... Don't let your competition know what you have... I'd bet that there is some truth to this and if lance takes a 10-15 min lead off the bike in kona... well... he runs faster than lieto already... it might be game over.

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COROS Sports Science

Let's see what he does in an IM before we keep saying he's sandbagging and he's got this secret run stored in his back pocket, that he's just waiting to unleash in Kona. He may very well have that run stored in there, and I still dont think it's going to be enough to even get a top 5. Which, hell even top 15-20 is an incredible accomplishment!! I just dont think he's sandbagging to the point that he's got the run and he's not showing his cards.

It's an incredible perfect tactic, I just have to ask, has it ever been done like that and somehow shows up to Kona in his 1st try and wins in that fashion?

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

No one is going to "give" anyone 10-15min on the bike. If he gets that kind of lead it will be because he's that much better. I'm surprised so many people think the guys in Kona just sits on the front soft pedaling deciding to let certain athletes disappear up the road.

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BA coaching http://www.bjornandersson.se

Like you would know? Pfffffffffft!


Oh wait, Bjorn....um, I didnt mean to say that...

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What if the Hokey Pokey is what it is all about?