I really doubt Tokyo is still a target, especially with Kona now a reality. If he goes all in for Kona, then the path to Tokyo seems too distracting. He also is likely far less motivated to race in Tokyo considering he has won 2 golds already.

Jack

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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His limiter appears to be focus, direction and perhaps motivation. Hopefully this narrows it a bit.

I think people underestimate how hard it would be to move from essentially unlimited (where you have won everything) federation support and direction to basically a free agent where you control everything yourself.

I think he will do well in Kona this year, I think he can win it when his brother comes over to LD and they start thinking about a killer squad and a great supporting team/cast of characters.

Maurice

I think you’re right. ITU is so fast and unpredictable now the new guys (Luis, Birtwhistle, Blummenfelt, etc.) can win on any given day.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

He picked the perfect weather conditions for himself this race and didn't even get to swim - which I consider his strongest leg. He absolutely ran down on the run too. Started 13 mins back and finished like 5 mins ahead?! That was mental.

Kona will be another story. I remember the Super League event in Oz that was hot AF and he was dying. They interviewed him and he just couldn't take that. Albeit he did well in Rio with hot weather.

Anyone know how it works in Europe with money and support and such? Over here its long distance, Kona being the gold standard and it is where the money and sponsorship and media reports are at. All private money. It ITU bigger there than Ironman or?

Still tickled by that run haha not sure if the overall run was fast but to run down that deficit was madness haha

I just had a look at the results, and to me, it really does not look like a good race at all for him. And they were his conditions. The bike must have been difficult, 4;37 for best split, but he is 17 minutes off that, not good. And another guy beat him too. These are not the top bikers you get at Kona either. And his run was slow, but maybe the course is really tough? He starts at 3 flat pace per k and ends in the mid+4's. Of course he could have shut it down, when did he make the catch, did it coincide with the slower run times?

Guessing a marathon was quite foreign to him, so really good to get one under his belt here. I would have just liked to see him at least ride with the leaders, was this guy some tt champion of something?

Of course a swim would have changed everything in this race, but in the big show, the swim is just a passage to T1 where the race starts pretty much dead even, like this one did..

Some in depth stuff there, looking at the result: conclusion bad race. This forum, smh - it is lol bad from the various self styled experts.

The fastest biker, who finished in second place, biked within a couple of minutes of Sanders at Arizona. Sure he's not been on the front in Kona. He's a 57min swimmer, which prevents him doing well.

A bit of research.... it takes 5 minutes.

It was a pretty good race for AB imho, I watched most of it. His main issue coming in (so I thought, anyway) would be pacing - but he paced it well. Bear in mind he had no specific prep, and he said after he enjoyed it until the last 10k of the run, when it became hard going.

He had no LD prep, no swim, which would have given him 5 - 10min on the others, held back on the bike and ran steady. It seems like a great debut after racing two SD tris the last three weeks.

you should delete this.

Looks like you wrote it a month ago just to be against Ali .

You didn't know anything about the race competitor or temps or winds, or the fact there was 2000 m of climbing over the 180 km which at every other Ironman race yields times above 4:30 for even the best riders.

Why would he need to run faster then he did if he was in first???

Maybe he is so smart he knows he just needs the kona slot not to shock the legs for the upcoming races. Maybe he talked to Gomez.

He did the job, good for him.

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Technique will always last longer then energy production. Improve biomechanics, improve performance.
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In most cases I’d agree with you but he is a proven athlete that will have no problem finding a high-performance long distance squad. And yes, he has been backed by British Triathlon for his entire career but money and sponsors won’t be an issue for him.



If I remember correctly, the brothers aren’t know for good heat-acclimatization protocols. Moving to a hot weather training squad will be key and I’m sure he knows it.



Cold day, absolutely dumping rain, no gloves on the bike, 21% grade on some of the hills. Put simply, it was a good test of character out there. Probably burned half his calories staying warm (think Boston Marathon 2018 but a bit warmer).

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

A bit of research.... it takes 5 minutes. //

So he got beat by 17 minutes to a guy that gets beat by sanders, who himself gets beat by many other top bikers in Kona. After that, hard to know what his run was really like, as winners always get to choose how hard they go, but he had to go pretty hard to actually win. And all this on a perfect day for him..


Of course one can make an excuse for each and every hour of his race as to why it was not dominating, over 2nd tier pros, and call it a great race. that is your prerogative. Mine is to just call it what it was, a mediocre debut, but a win non the less. And I dont represent a slowtwitch attitude, just my own opinion here, as an uninformed anonymous dude, based on my no history in the sport, and arm chair Monday morning quarterbacking...

Why would he need to run faster then he did if he was in first??? //

Why would he let some 2nd tier pro beat him by 17 minutes and have to run so hard to get the win?? Dude is supposed to be one of the best bikers in the sport, and has shown that at 70.3 rides, many times...

Is it sacrilege to talk even a tiny bit of smack about Ali, a guy who I admire greatly by the way. I actually consider him one of my favorite pros out there in this crop, across all distances..

Come on, Monty. That is not fair to Lionel. Sure, his 4.16 last year was beaten by others than Wurf, but it wasn't exactly his best performance. Only Wurf outbiked him in 2017 (4.12 vs 1.14, and Kienle did a 4.14 too), which indicates that Lionel is among the best bikers, if not the best biker, save for Wurf and Starky.

Monty it was actually 12 mins due to the staggered start. You'll see this reflected in the final results.

That being said it doesn't bode well. I'm surprised as he can bike with the big boys over 70.3 and did a 25 mile TT at 400w last year.

One of 2 things are apparent:

1. He isn't suited/adapted to the longer stuff.
2. He isn't particularly fit (by his standards of course).

I think it may be a bit of both. As much as he protested his fitness, he didn't look remotely fit in Leeds. The two previous races he looked decent but nowhere near where he was in say 2016.

Also there has been a lack of focus which I don't think has helped. He has to make a decision on going long and make it now. He's still gonna get pumped in Kona this year but could be in a position to win it in 2020. But that process has to start now.

Will there be a highlights package or will the whole race be posted online at some point?

There's a coaching saying:

-when athletes are telling you something by their words or actions; believe them.


To me this is all an "incomplete" assessment of AB at the current moment because I just think he's a bit lost at the moment with the actual direction of his post ITU career. Hell he's still even debating itu etc., (I'm guessing he will now give it up) so it's very evident just watching and hearing what he's saying- he's bored/lost on what he actually wants to do. You can not train properly for ITU demands of competition and IM specifics in a very close time period. So I think what we are seeing is a "half" committed athlete getting by on basically instincts/talent, etc. in a lower level IM race. It's so incomplete, I dont even want to forecast anything from this specific result because I think it's just too inconclusive.

So I think if AB finally turns the page and gets into the IM specifics, he'll be just fine. Fine in that I think he'll easily be a factor in just about any race not even worrying if he wins the races or not. I have a feeling the "heat" is going to be an issue for him with Kona specificially, but for IM I've always cringed at the "you have to win kona" talk or your shit. I think it's a bit of a farce that we keep the championship in 1 location. But that's a topic for another day.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

not sure what you're after here monty, but you're coming across as belligerent and willfully uninformed.

first, the conditions weren't ideal for anyone. it was a TT start, so pacing and groups were shot up. 25-35mph winds. driving rain. 14 degrees. several pros were walking their bikes up windmill road, which everyone had to do twice. several near-misses on the broadcast as riders nearly wiped out.

second, you can either say he ran slow or he ran really hard, but he can't have done both.

read up on this one, a bit.

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

I wouldn't disagree with you but I'd maybe change the emphasis. I agree with you about listening to what he is saying. He said he didn't specifically train for this race and he's going to Kona for experience.

Why he is choosing the races and training he is doing is something we are only speculating about though. He may well be bored/lost or he may be having a less intense year deliberately. He is prone to injury because he is (or has been) an all or nothing athlete. He mentioned that himself, that when he was younger he said he'd rather be flat out and win even if it meant a shorter career. He sounded more philosophical about that now though and maybe that is what we are seeing.

One possible outcome is that he goes there this year and comes 11th. People talk a lot about that, like they do. Then he has a proper run at it in 2020. Including moving to a climate where he can be ready for it (I agree with you about the conditions at Kona being a question mark for him).

I don't think we'll know much more about Alistair's chances of winning Kona after this years race. In a way, as a fan, I hope he has an uneventful race but enjoys it. He is incredibly competitive and I wouldn't want to see him over do it and get in medical trouble.

IMHO what we should be talking about is 2020 and 2021 regarding Alistair. I think Jonathan has said he is thinking about going long after the Olympics.

I actually am taking no emphasis from this result for AB. As I said in the other thread, this result is meaningless for actual merit of splits, etc. other than just checking off doing an IM, running a marathon etc.

But saying X split sucked or Y split was this time behind the leaders etc is meaningless when you look at what happened to the race (no swim, and 30s TT interval start and shit ass rain all day) and it's meaningless when we are basically talking about a half fit athlete. It really means nothing other than he won his 1st IM on his 1st try.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I (mostly) agree with you. In addition, I think he was playing a bit of poker ever since he announced. He won and no one has any idea what he has. I actually think that was his goal from the beginning . . . the canceled swim changed the methodology but not the overall plan. Mission accomplished . . . next time we'll actually see what he has planned (or up his sleeve).

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

Look at what an on-form AB did to Kienle and Sanders at St. George a few years ago on the bike... outsplit them both. Fast forward to today... Brownlee gets smoked on a hilly bike in the pissing rain by 15minutes.

If the argument is, he purposefully underbiked and played his cards on the run, sobeit. But that isn’t how Brownlee ever races, so it seems more likely that his bike fitness isn’t where it normally is.

We are basically having same conclusion I just don’t think it’s from him “faking” it. I think it’s truly he’s off form atm, but it also doesn’t really matter. The only form he must show is itu form if he wants Tokyo. And I think that ship is sailing off so now he starts really wrapping his brain around IM/70.3 full time.

Hell 2019 Kona doesn’t even matter cus there will one the very next year, so there really is no urgency to quick fix or go “win or bust” mode; unless he’s truly just done with triathlon. So I think it’s just a matter of him transitioning himself and truly closing one chapter for the next IM chapter. Unless of course he just doesn’t want to. But he seems the type that will atleast give it a 3-5 year go at it to truly see what he can accomplish. He isn’t and Simon Whitfield or GJ who truly wanted no part of LC racing. I think he’s competitive enough and triathlon historian type that he’s eventually wanting to put it all in for best chance at every distance.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

He must have gotten rusty at drafting off the camera motos. He had this perfected at St George.

I am with Monty on his mediocre debut. His bike was weak and he was racing against the JV squad.

His run was not that impressive - the degree to which he split positive tells you all you need to know. And again, he was racing against the JV squad. The lack of swim is much ado about nothing in Kona. Arguably trying to go Rambo on the swim hurts not helps him.

The numbers don't tell the whole story. It was more Norseman than Kona. Linsey Corbin quit at T2 and had this to say "Gutted to have had my 3rd ever DNF today @IRONMAN_Ireland - I put my best effort forward to stay warm & the Irish weather took me down. So much respect to everyone out there battling in the nastiest conditions I’ve ever seen."

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

The lack of swim is much ado about nothing in Kona. Arguably trying to go Rambo on the swim hurts not helps him.

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When does he go Rambo on the swims? He's one of the fastest swimmers in just about any race he enters. There's no "rambo" style needed for him. He's going to be at the front of the swim or at worse with the main group that is the front of the race.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Worked great for lange.