What will be more interesting is with Ali joining the front group, the front group now has the teeth + motivation to actually drive from the start of the bike to keep the non-swimming uber bikers away and/or make them work the whole ride...not just let them catch 20 miles in....

I think one thing we'll notice is that the 2nd main chase swim group that now forces LS to lead will be much more motivated to work with LS to keep the gap manageable. It seems the last few races and last year at Kona they pretty much looked at LS and told him to pull to T1....I dont think they'll want to do that anymore, because the front group is gaining more firepower in the swim than the chase group.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

As talented as Alistair is, hot races are his weakness - I just can't seem him even hitting the top 10 in a hot race like Hawaii - once he gets off the bike, he'll turn into a big puddle like that Scottish marathoner just did at the Commonwealth Games.

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

Yes that's the thing I guess, so many variables, so many different possible outcomes. No two races will play out the same

I actually think there will be fewer variables now that the front group is getting more bike fire power. I mean if they are the best runners who also come out of water near front and almost the best bikers, it then simply becomes about managing the gap, *if/when* the non front pack uber bikers makes it to front and attacks field on bike.

It then turns more and more into an itu race where it front group works to cause chase group to expend energy to zap legs for run and when your best runners are also at front saving energy well there you go.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I actually think he used that race a training session for Leeds.

You may be thinking of his brother.

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Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

Yeah, Jonny is not much better. But Alistair lost a lot of places (and the win?) in the last km and staggered across a WTS (London?) finish line in a race a few years ago coz it was hot (for the UK).

So after 5+ hours in Hawaii heat, I just can't see him holding up for a decent finish (never mind that I doubt he'll ever make it to the start line of Hawaii given his run injury history, and I think he'll take one or 2 smack downs in the heat in other long course races and that'll deter him from pursuing Hawaii).

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

So Alistar has 1 melt down in ITU London, which was in 2010 and he can't handle hot races? But wins olympic gold in Rio and London which were not cool days. We all remember when Lionel had his melt downs in Kona, heat related, but came 2nd last year. Apparently athletes can adapt to environments

I agree about the injury potential though

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Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

Sounds like you have zero concerns about Alistair's ability to handle Hawaii heat.

Should he manage to get himself to that start line, I'd wager you dollars to donuts he doesn't make the top 10...because of the heat.

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

Name all these races Ali lost due to heat?

Or better yet, name all the races he won in Hawaii like heat?

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

I think you're right that heat is definitely a factor that Ali will have to look at if he wants to be a contender in Kona. But I don't think 1 race in London in 2010 gives a cast iron guarantee that he won't be able to deal with it. Some athletes naturally deal with heat well like Crowie. Others will just never be able to deal with the heat no matter what they do. Others fall in-between and, with meticulous preparation, can deal with it. Macca was not naturally good in the heat but just about managed to deal wth it. Sindballe is another that managed to adapt enough to have a good performance. It doesn't seem like Ali is a natural in the heat but he may be able to adapt enough to be able to race well.

I think you are 100% right that there is a big question mark about him being good in the heat, but I don't understand how you can be totally convinced he can't adapt to it. Unless you just don't like him.

Will

Off the top of my head, hot ones were

Madrid ITU 2010
Madrid ITU 2011
Beijing International 2011 (non draft)
London ITU 2010 (strangely very hot for the UK)
Dubai 70.3 2018
Abu Dhabi (non draft) can't remember the year
Rio 2016 (Olympic Games)

I'm sure there are others. I'd need to look it up

PS I'm not a stalker, I have followed ITU closely for quite a few years :)

But, I do agree that if anything causes an issue, it's the heat. He's had bad races in the heat too. Then again he's had bad races in the cold.

oh, I'm definitely theorizing based on a small sample size for Ali - I've got nothing against him at all - it would be awesome to have him put in a competitive race in Hawaii and I'd like to see that, and maybe he will figure out his heat / nutrition solution, but being a betting man I would definitely bet big against him doing well in Hawaii.

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

Just looked up Dubai for 2/2/18 as I'd checked it on race day and was surprised . The high temperature for the day was 73*F and not hitting 70 until after the race was finished and dew point was only 52*F so at least that one was vastly cooler than Hawaii will ever be. Perhaps all the rest were hotter and more humid.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Ah, sorry about that!! Thanks for the correction.

I'm pretty sure the Madrid races were hot, as I was watching the replay the other day, and the commentary said so. The others I didn't look the weather up.

I think in general he's has good hot races, bad hot races, good cold races, bad cold races.

The Madrid races were in the mid 80's F* so pretty much like Hawaii but they had low dew points compared to Hawaii i.e. much less humid. It's the double wammy of heat and humidity that really makes it tough to shed heat.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

From memory he beat Gomez on his own turf in that heat with relative ease twice?

Except both guys got to watch Sanders' back going up the road at least once last year. Sanders may or may not see the front of a race with those two guys, but he's not an athlete you can just count out and dismiss. If you want to say that Lionel won't see the front of the race with Frodo in it, we have plenty of data to validate that statement as a high probability. Wth Brownlee there are not enough proof points to show that this is true at the longer distances. Let's see what Alistair can do before gifting him any crowns.

And Sanders didn’t even see Ali in one race last year and Jan in a race this year.

What’s your point?

I for one can’t wait for all 3 plus Javier line up together, and hopefully when all a fit and raring to go. As an Englishman I want Ali to win. As a sports lover I want a freaking good race.

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I ride:
Cervelo - P-Series/R3
GT - Sensor Carbon Expert

Supporters - Flo Cycling, Mount Bikes

The Brownlee's are a Brand, a very, very lucrative brand and depending on the competition a DNF is less damaging to the brand than a loss. Think about it.

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It's a Good life if you don't Weaken!
My Mom 1922-2004

My point was to the guy who wrote that Sanders won't see the front of the race, when we have actual data points when he beat these guys. Sure, most days IF THOSE GUYS ARE HEALTHY, they should beat the age grouper turned pro (after all we're talking about the last three Olympic Gold medals vs some guy who just learned how to do triathlons in the last bunch of years). But there days if these guys are just a bit off (and it won't take much) for Lionel to be at the front of the race.Let's keep in mind that Sanders time in Kona was the third fastest all time. Crowie just beat Lionel's 8:04 time by a few seconds in 2011 and then there was Lange last year. Frodo has not put down a time like that and Brownlee has not raced Kona yet.

100% agree

If anything Ali blew up from trying to outbike the S/K train and pulled the plug when he knew he was not going to win.

Please... Considering that Lionel Sanders has the third fastest time ever in Kona, and the only times in front of him were when the winner broke the course record to win the race, I'm pretty sure Sanders will see the front of the race, whether Frodo, Brownlee, and/or Gomez are in it.