Where are you hearing he's only been bike training for 5 weeks? I think this is a race on more than 5 weeks of training for sure.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Depends on his position and bike equipment. Might take 1 day =)

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

I don't know what the course was like, but lets assume gentle rollers, and let's assuming a CDA of .23, 65kg

that would be 228 watts to go 23.7mph

to go 26.73 would be 298.1 watts

But maybe his cda is actually much worse and can be improved.

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

It was fairly flat with pretty good roads but there were lots of turns and lots of traffic. Little bit of wind out there, especially when he would've been on the bike.

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speedySTATES

Just for some numbers from collegiate nats that was 1 week earlier, and the collegiate kids did an Olympic, but Ian Boggs who won the DL event on Friday rode the Olympic (36k) on probably nearly the same roads as today went 25.5 mph. Out of the 1st page of the top 36, only 6 riders didn't break 25mph for the Olympic distance.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

His last run race was only a couple of months ago.

I know and race against some of the other people in that field. Deuces Wild Tri last year had a number of the same people that were in this race. This allows me to make a guestimate as to what a pro like Lewis Elliot or Tom Gerlach might have done on that course. What I don't know is what Gomez or Brownlee might have done.

The 5 week thing is a guess at the level of training that would be needed for a world class athlete to produce that kind of bike split. (I initially guessed 7 weeks but I want to view the split more favorably). There may be some other explanation.

FWIW-

242AP/248NP with a tested CdA between .23 and .24 put me at 24.1mph on the Leadman course which is same loop with slight addition. Flat but lots of turns and a decent amount of traffic at times.

Who knows how hard he was going on the bike. Based on the results, there were a few guys close to him coming out of the water. He outsplit them both on the bike, so at that point he's out there by himself. I assume he's pretty confident he can outrun anyone in the field, so perhaps he does just enough to be first into T2 and saves those matches for later.

Or maybe he killed himself on the bike to get that number and barely held on to finish the run ahead of Hall. Maybe he went so deep into the pain cave he'll quit triathlon forever.

Hard to say when just looking at numbers, but I hope for the first scenario. I know the current US guys are very talented and I'm sure our guys all train immensely hard, but as a fan I would love to see someone from the US who is a credible threat to medal if they come into T2 with the lead pack.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I suspect he can increase his FTP by 1 percent every 2 weeks for the next several months.

Interesting to me is the fact that he outsplit a HS kid who was 4:40 in the 500 free (in 2014). I think we can almost put to rest the question about him being able to come out with the first pack in a legit ITU race (on the swim).

Not a reply to only Jack because he knows this already.

I don't think there's any question Alan will be fine on the bike. He has a MONSTER ENGINE.....quite arguably as big or bigger than anyone in the history of triathlon. He may never be an uber biker, but he doesn't have to be. It looks like his swim is fine and he's he's a faster runner than anyone in triathlon. And ya he was a miler, but he also ran 27:34 for 10K. That's what....a minute faster than Alistar Brownlee's PR?

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

Interesting to see how the discussions keep switching over the years so quickly. Potts, Kemper, Shoemaker, Reed, Manny, Lukas V, now Webb. So it seems Lukas is on the down & backslide of the next American ITU hope now? Wonder who it'll be a year from now...

Webb is a big deal to many of us that are runners (or runners turned triathletes). He's been a hero to many for years. He's quite possibly the fastest clean miler ever born. Quite possibly the largest white endurance engine ever born....and near the top for anyone ever. It's too bad he didn't tri earlier. Too bad for triathon anyway (not too bad for him I'm sure).

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

Being fine on the bike to stay with the pack into T2 and then being fine to stay with the pack and contend on the run are 2 completely different things. There are usually 40 guys that can easily stay with the pack in pretty much any standard ITU race (taking out any of the more harder structured bike courses). But it's a completely different ball game to then run with the leaders. It's amazing that 25-40 guys will come into T2 and by 500m, it's already down to a 5 man race and then by 2k into the run, the top 3 has already broken away and the medals have been decided.

So let's just see what he does off the bike after swimming and biking with the front pack, because saying he's the fastest runner in triathlon right now is sorta up in the air (it sorta doesn't matter if he cant actually be the fastest runner and contend). He still has to get to the run without burning a lot of matches, and that's yet to be decided. I think he's got some potential, but putting it together at the WTS level is a whole different ball game, and I guess we'll wait and see what happens.

If I was his camp, I'd put him in at Ixtapa CC in Mexico on 5/24/14. The one event I think he would absolutely do well in is the Tiszaujvaros ITU race in Hungary that has semifinal and finals, back to back days. That would be a fantastic event to get him a lot of experience and it's shorter so his speed can come into play more.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I don't think that's unique to the US or to the sport of triathlon in general. In running, cycling, football, baseball there's always discussion of up and coming athletes...

It's also not mutually exclusive, people can be interested in Webb, Verzbicas, and the crop of younger guys coming up simultaneously.

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Twitter | Kancman | Blog

Awesome. Can't wait to see how his career unfolds.

I was in the sprint race in the same wave with Webb, so maybe I can help shed a little light on race. The swim was probably a tiny bit long, but im not sure about that. Webb exited the water with one athlete who usually swims alot faster than his times suggested yesterday. The bike course was 14 miles and mostly flat but fairly technical. It is a similar course to collegiate nationals, but it is not the same. The bike loop is significantly longer. Lots of turns and tons of traffic. I was blocked and had to slow for riders many times. I out-split Webb on the bike and rode 24.3 at 279W. My NP was around 300W because of the constant coasting into turns and etc. Webb rode a relatively solid bike, but at the times I saw him on course, he didnt appear to be pushing incredibly hard. Webb was riding a blue AC1 road bike with basebar//TT cockpit on it. Run course was flat and seemed to be close to the correct distance. I was impressed with Webb's swim more than anything. Hope that helps.

Thx, nice summary. Webb's biggest ally might be that swim speed. IF he can make the front pack, that in itself cuts out 2/3rds of the other American Olympic hopefuls, and obviously no other American will likely be able to run with him. But it's still a different ball game all together of being able to compete at the WTS level, but if he can make it to T2 in the front pack, he's going to finish top 15 for sure, which I don't know that we can say for many other Americans at this point. Still a lot to be decided, should be fun to see where the chips fall.

I don't think the US Olympic qualifying standard has been set just yet, but I'll be curious to see if any "automatically" qualifies, even with the US's *weaker* standards compared to some other countries.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

That 27:34 is from 2006.

The 10:56 for 750 m equals about 11:40 for 800 m, which is a bit slow for a top tri swimmer. From what I've read of his swim prowess, I would think Webb could go around 9:00 for 800 m in a long course (50 m) pool, or around 9:30-ish for an accurately measured 800 m in OW, or about 8:55 for 750 m in OW. So, that course might have been around 2 minutes or so long.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Again I already pointed this out: the kid who went 10:57 (presumably in his wave) went 4:40 in the 500 yard free this February. No other baseline is really needed.

I would agree that swim times appeared to be roughly 1-2 minutes longer than would be expected of most of the people that I knew (including myself).

Agreed:)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

I also believe that T1 times are included into the swim times on the posted results. This also includes a 200m'ish run into transition. This may account for some of the swim time length. Hope that helps.

Ahhh, now we're seeing the real explanation, this makes perfect sense since I noticed there was no T1 time but that they do list a T2 time. So, do you think Webb's 10:56 split was prob around 9:20-ish actual swim time???

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."