I think it'll be a fairly even split between the two races. I think Texas will still attract those that are trying to KQ and willing to draft. I think St. George will attract those that feel like they fair better on a hard course.

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MS: Exercise Science
Your speed matters a lot, sometimes you need to be very fast, where sometimes you need to breakdown your speed.

I think that St. George favors those who are stronger bikers. That said, fast folks are generally fast on most courses. A bit off topic, but I'm really looking forward to the 70.3 WC being held in St. George.

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Ironman St George is darn hard race. It will suit a strong athlete. If you are not a strong athlete, and going for Kona slots you have no business racing St George and are better off racing Texas.

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I think competition at IMTX has typically been very strong because of the extra kq slots. Those slots will now be at stg. In addition, the stronger athletes are not afraid of the tough course while a lot of MOP and BOP athletes are. I predict the competition to be a lot tougher at stg

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I think travel logistics will play a part. From outside the US, Is it easier to fly straight into Texas than St. George?

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http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

Something else to think about is the ease of travel to The Woodlands. Bush is right down the bike course. There's also a lot of competitive FOP age groupers from the Houston area. I'd venture to say IMTX won't drop off much.

The vast majority of people want to register fast times.It is the outliers who will try to do that at St George.

It is definitely farther for those from Europe, but Vegas is pretty close to St. George, and there are certainly a lot of flights to there.

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Same, 70.3 worlds in St. George will be awesome. Agreed with everyone above. Fast bikers are generally fast anywhere, but both Texas and StG reward different kinds of fast.

My question is really two fold: to which will the fast age groupers go? and what makes one fast on each course?

Flat and fast Texas should favor age group riders with high watts/cda but their advantage is reduced due to drafting. StG more favors w/kg. So where's the cutoff (w/kg or other) for strong biker on each course that makes one better suited than the other?

As an example, at ~3 w/kg, 240w, what would you think?

Getting to St. George is easy. Fly to Las Vegas and drive a couple of hours up the road to St. George.

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

More slots typically equals better Kona chances. However if hills are a weakness then St. George is not the place to chase those extra slots. Strong riders going for Kona slots should choose STG over Texas.

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http://dontletitdefeatyou.blogspot.com

I feel like it's always a crapshoot. Ultimately, if you are looking to place as high as possible, you would compare where you fall on the distribution of both W/kg and W/Cda and then pick where you are best relative to your competitors. So there isn't a fixed cutoff per se, rather, you would have to look at where you rank in each race.

There is also the heat to consider (again - relative to competitors). I have done both St George 70.3 and IMTX and felt the former was tougher - the desert sun is relentless.

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Strava

More fast people will show up for StG due to more slots being available.

But some fast people will still do Texas.

Bottom line: there is no real way to game this

PS — are there fewer slots at StG than there have been at past NA championships?

I agree that if hills are a weakness then you don't want to go to St. George, but I think it is the hills on the run that are going to kill people's race. The only flat section on that run is the first 100 yards out of T2. If you look at the run profile on Ironman's website it shows 770 ft and that is each lap, so over 1500 ft on the run. Not as bad as the last edition of the full, but still going to be super hard. I think the strong runner will be able to run through the field. I don't think the bike will be especially hard and will be faster than a lot of people realize.

It’s a complete crapshoot. If your goal is to kq, then you already have the wrong mindset. You cannot control what everyone is doing so stop worrying/thinking about it. Race the race that suits your strengths and/or do the race that excites you the most. If you have a good race, you should be happy with that regardless if you kq. Don’t put kona on the pedestal. I see people have great races all the time but in their eyes it was a failure because they didn’t kq. You can’t control who shows up and there will always be people who are faster than you. Missing a kq is often seen as a negative rather than motivation to work on weaknesses to get to that next level.

Edit: Set a goal a realistic goal for yourself given your training leading in and the course/conditions. It should be time based or somehow measurable (but not a kq). If you are truly close to having a shot at kq, that measurable goal should give you a “chance” to kq. If you reach that goal, you should be happy/proud no matter what happens.

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blog

I would say STG will be an easier place to get a spot if you are in one of the larger AG's as there ends up being quite a few more slots for the big AG's after the min 1 slot goes for every AG and are still plenty left.

Also, as some have said, ironman is still skewed to people (even the FOP) being bias towards a fast course and time and I think this is more true for the FOP crew.

It will be tough either way at both these races to get a kona slot, but using me as an example with a just an "ok" swim and FOP bike/run, its a total no brainer to go to STG vs Texas as the drafting negates a lot of bike advantage at texas which really works against people who can qualify off a 1:05 swim.

If you are a FOP swimmer I would say its a coin toss which may end up being easier to get a slot.

This.

If you are a borderline Kona athlete to begin with, you are going to be a borderline Kona athlete at any race you show up at, most likely.

I think St. George is going to be pretty competitive for slots. I am signing up for the race and my motivation is that I want to take on the toughest IM course and I know a lot of other athletes that feel the same way. I think you are going to get most of the elite amateurs going after this race as they won't have another shot for 3 years. I had a 9:45 in whistler M30-34 and expect to come back much stronger for this race but I think just doing a little digging I already know of a few sub 9hr racers in my AG doing this race.

Going to be an interesting race because with that 2000ft+ straight climb in the heat it will be interesting to see how much people cook themselves on it.

Not sure why people are answering without trying to answer...

First, I think you have to look at your biking skills, if you're stronger, St George should be better (unless you are shameless at drafting). Second, how you deal with the heat. Obviously this could change, but theoretically its going to be hotter in St George. Last year, first week of May in St George 88F, last week in April in Woodlands 82. For me, that 6 degrees is going to kill me. If you cope better in the heat than most people your age, IMSG, if not, I'd do Texas.

Finally, depends on your AG, that's a huge factor. Younger, IM St George is more competitive, older IMTX will be more competitive. Whether the top will take the slots, I'm not sure. Most importantly, just looking at past results, not just time, but relative placement by age group, I always look this up because I'm curious to see how old these grey bearded runners are that are passing me (FYI, I've been beaten by one crazy fast old guy 20 years my elder). There are skews in the two races. You can do a quick download of the top finishers and play with it in excel and see which age groups are further off the top of the pack for top 2-3 spots if you're really interested. If you really want to nerd out, grab the races you've run, check those results and then going check past years on these.

obstri.com already does most of that work for you.

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Ooof, now I feel like a nerd and a nerd who has been too much work!

Are there partecipant list?

I would like to give 70.3 WC in St. George a shot. I am racing 55-59 this year and can swim-bike like a decent 30 year old....of course the problem is the run but the fast runners are getting slower too. I just have to find a hard course that is not sold out where I can have a good enough swim-bike that shreds runner legs and pace my run steady.

In terms of the OP's question, at St. George one Kona Q's with a placement that reflect the race they deserve. IM Texas draft fest may allow fast running good swm, bad bikers to catch the proverbial flyer, avoid the zebra police and get an undeserved KQ. If I was racing IM's I would pick Saint George any day over Texas (new course). The old course was good for a fair race.

Yess!!!

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https://www.strava.com/...tes/zachary_mckinney