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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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B_Doughtie wrote:
Gomez's potential ceiling in Ironman is so much higher than even Frodeno.


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While this may be true one fact that is true. For Gomez to out duel Frodo, he has to win what 3 kona's. That is one hell of a tough ask, and yes I think Gomez can crush IM. I think it's more to say waitttttt a second.....give Frodo props for being a 2 time Kona winner in what 3 or 4 attempts. So Frodo has set a very high ceiling for Gomez to eclipse imo.

Totally agree. Frodo is a beast and I think he got into Ironman at the right time and found his niche (for now).

But over the piece he wasn't an outstanding ITU athlete (In comparison to AB, JG etc) even with the Olympic gold. He really was the generation before things levelled up.

I actually don't think JG will win on his first attempt but after that it'll be one way traffic. His bike has to improve by at least 20W
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [Adman] [ In reply to ]
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I looked at it again.

Frodo in 3 Kona attempts:

-bronze
-gold
-gold

If Gomez wins 1 in 3 I would think it's a great accomplishment let alone 2 in a row. And again I don't think it's a knock on Gomez as to say Frodo will be a very very worthy opponent for Gomez (unless he retires soonish.....is that the rumor???).

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [Adman] [ In reply to ]
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Adman wrote:
oscaro wrote:
Some of the things you write are correct, however there is NO WAY Gomez can outrun Frodo by 7 min. He regularly runs 2:40 which would mean Gomez would have to run 2:33 which is not going to happen. I also don't think Gomez has a real shot at a gold in Tokyo as he will be too old.
As for Ali B I actually think he will do great things in ironman when he has fully decided upon it. And we will see next year if he's heading for Kona or Tokyo. I believe Ali would like a triple/quadruple oly gold and get that cbe

It's definitely possible given JG has taken up to 2 mins out of JF in ITU. And given JF ran 2:45 last year, 2:38 isn't out of the question.

I honestly don't think AB can stay fit long enough to get to Kona in optimum shape. AB at 80% can win ITU races, but with the duration and conditions in Kona I doubt 80% would be enough to finish, given his unrelenting style.
Just because frodo ran 2:45 doesn't mean that was his best. He regularly splits 2:40-2:42 and I'm sure he could do that in kona if he needed to. Don't forget he won by 5 min last year.
Also just because someone has raced a shorter distance faster doesn't mean they will be equally better on longer distances. There are tons of examples of this in the running world, people who are great at 5/10k but don't transition well to marathon.
As I said before, 2:38 is absolutely possible in kona and will happen soon, maybe already this year. We have Patrik Nilsson who ran 2:39 in 35° Frankfurt as well as Lange. If they are battling it out for a podium it will be fast!
As for Ali, ironman training will be less taxing on his body, and he has also said that steady efforts actually suit him better. Have no doubt he would crush full distance as he is a class above in all disciplines.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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As I said before, 2:38 is absolutely possible in kona and will happen soon,//

You are predicting something that already happened, Mark Allen went 2;38+ when he set the record, backing out his transition which is how they calculate all running split times now. And Dave's time from that race was 2;39+, so of course it is possible by guys that are much faster 10k runners than those guys were.


But keep in mind that this particular Kona run in its context of being done after so much, and in such hot weather, is very hard to predict by running times alone. It is a whole different animal and some guys just excel at it, even though their stand alone or other race times may not have been the best. A bunch of stand alone sub 2;20 marathon guys have done Kona and they do not come close to what Mark and Dave, or Patrick, Crowie, Macca, and several others that have gone low 2;40+ times have done. I suspect that Gomez would at the very least be in that low 2;40 club, and certainly on paper has the chops to take down that 2;38 record of Mark's on a great day where he is pushed.


Will be exciting if he ever actually attempts it in his prime, this Tokyo thing has to be hanging heavy on his schedule and mindset.
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [monty] [ In reply to ]
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That is true, so perhaps 2:37 is the time for Gomez/Ali/Lange/Nilsson to aim for!
Just as an aside, what sub 2:20 guys have done kona? I know only of Bustos.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Just as an aside, what sub 2:20 guys have done kona? I know only of Bustos. //

There are a bunch, some of which were 10k adjusted times. SO figure if a guy broke 29 minutes for a 10k, he most likely would have done sub 2;20 for the marathon. Probably a lot of guys even in the mid 29 range of a 10k could also have done it, just a bunch of guys never ran marathons.


Just going off the top of my head, there will be a lot more;


Mark Sisson- 2;17
Benjamin Parades- 2;10
Ryan Bolton- 28+ 10k
Olaf Sabactus- 1;03+ 1/2 marathon
Paul Amey- 1;04 1/2 marathon
Kenny Souza - 29 low 10k/1;06 1/2
Glenn Cook- 1;05+ 1/2
Tim Don- 28 high 10k
Molina- 2;22


And don't really know of their stand alone run times, but Crowie, Frodo, Macca, Lange, Sanders, Hanson, Jacobs and a ton of really fast running AG'ers have some fast run times in races that would lead one to believe they were 2;20 our under. There are some AG'ers that have crushed running races, those are harder to find out, but I have heard about them over the years. Of course they don't end up out running the pros at Kona, but some get pretty close...




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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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oscaro wrote:
Adman wrote:
oscaro wrote:
Some of the things you write are correct, however there is NO WAY Gomez can outrun Frodo by 7 min. He regularly runs 2:40 which would mean Gomez would have to run 2:33 which is not going to happen. I also don't think Gomez has a real shot at a gold in Tokyo as he will be too old.
As for Ali B I actually think he will do great things in ironman when he has fully decided 9upon it. And we will see next year if he's heading for Kona or Tokyo. I believe Ali would like a triple/quadruple oly gold and get that cbe

It's definitely possible given JG has taken up to 2 mins out of JF in ITU. And given JF ran 2:45 last year, 2:38 isn't out of the question.

I honestly don't think AB can stay fit long enough to get to Kona in optimum shape. AB at 80% can win ITU races, but with the duration and conditions in Kona I doubt 80% would be enough to finish, given his unrelenting style.
Just because frodo ran 2:45 doesn't mean that was his best. He regularly splits 2:40-2:42 and I'm sure he could do that in kona if he needed to. Don't forget he won by 5 min last year.
Also just because someone has raced a shorter distance faster doesn't mean they will be equally better on longer distances. There are tons of examples of this in the running world, people who are great at 5/10k but don't transition well to marathon.
As I said before, 2:38 is absolutely possible in kona and will happen soon, maybe already this year. We have Patrik Nilsson who ran 2:39 in 35° Frankfurt as well as Lange. If they are battling it out for a podium it will be fast!
As for Ali, ironman training will be less taxing on his body, and he has also said that steady efforts actually suit him better. Have no doubt he would crush full distance as he is a class above in all disciplines.

You are right athletes don't always transfer up the distances well. I think JG will though.

Anyway I don't think there will be a 7 min deficit in the first place. JG has improvements to make, but Frodeno was never the strongest on the bike in ITU.

I agree on Ironman training being kinder on ABs body. The problem I have is he is coming into it already pretty damaged. This latest operation was a potential career ended from what I've heard.
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [Adman] [ In reply to ]
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Totally agree that he will transition well, and I am hoping that both him and Brownlee will battle it out in Kona along with the usual suspects! Don't think Gomez will ever become a uberbiker, sure he will improve but he won't get to kienle's etc level. But could maybe get to Frodos level. Alistair on the other hand, I believe could keep up with the uberbikers, and has during st George (challenge doesn't count).
As for Ali's injuries it could be to late as you say, but I don't think so.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Just as an aside, what sub 2:20 guys have done kona? I know only of Bustos. //

There are a bunch, some of which were 10k adjusted times. SO figure if a guy broke 29 minutes for a 10k, he most likely would have done sub 2;20 for the marathon. Probably a lot of guys even in the mid 29 range of a 10k could also have done it, just a bunch of guys never ran marathons.


Just going off the top of my head, there will be a lot more;


Mark Sisson- 2;17
Benjamin Parades- 2;10
Ryan Bolton- 28+ 10k
Olaf Sabactus- 1;03+ 1/2 marathon
Paul Amey- 1;04 1/2 marathon
Kenny Souza - 29 low 10k/1;06 1/2
Glenn Cook- 1;05+ 1/2
Tim Don- 28 high 10k
Molina- 2;22


And don't really know of their stand alone run times, but Crowie, Frodo, Macca, Lange, Sanders, Hanson, Jacobs and a ton of really fast running AG'ers have some fast run times in races that would lead one to believe they were 2;20 our under. There are some AG'ers that have crushed running races, those are harder to find out, but I have heard about them over the years. Of course they don't end up out running the pros at Kona, but some get pretty close...




Paul Gompers - 1:02:xx half & 2:11:xx marathon.
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [gregn] [ In reply to ]
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And of course this arg grouper who went 1;03+ for 1/2, pretty sure he would run under 2;20, even on a bad day..

http://www.slowtwitch.com/...hattanooga_6565.html
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [juanillo] [ In reply to ]
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juanillo wrote:


Patrick Lange run 2.39 last year. Gomez can run faster than that guy



A lot of people seem to have missed that he ran a 1:11 in his race in on the same day, and he did not have to keep pushing like Gomez since he had a 6 minute lead. So I wouldn't just assume one of them is a lot faster than the other.

http://ironman-results.r.mikatiming.de/...mp;search_event=70.3
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [tomdefietsbom] [ In reply to ]
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juanillo wrote:

Patrick Lange run 2.39 last year. Gomez can run faster than that guy



A lot of people seem to have missed that he ran a 1:11 in his race in on the same day, and he did not have to keep pushing like Gomez since he had a 6 minute lead. So I wouldn't just assume one of them is a lot faster than the other

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I dont wanna devalue the class of Lange. He is one of my favourites in Kona this year, maybe over Frodo. I would put my money to bet for him.
Javier will have to work mega hard on the bike this season to be close to this guy or Frodo, because, I still think he is a better runner tough never seen Javier doing a full IM. I am happy to see more competition against Frodo, but the requirement is doing a sub 2.40 for the marathon. I wouldnt count Kienle anymore for battle and dont think Tim Don is at the level of the other two. So , Lange is my horse

Juanillo - "Frustriathlete"

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P
Last edited by: juanillo: Sep 17, 17 2:43
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [juanillo] [ In reply to ]
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Have they done highlights of this race anywhere? Can't see anything up on Youtube.
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Re: 70.3 worlds men's race thread [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
Have they done highlights of this race anywhere? Can't see anything up on Youtube.

Nope....I´d like to see that as well.... Lange is a beast on two feet, but also a good swimmer and a top cyclist...I see him facing Frodo seriously. Sanders and Kienle will lose time in the water, again...but working together can even get to T2 at the front. The main thing is how far will Frodeno and Lange would be to catch Sanders that has shown a great improvement in his running. 4 minutes for Sanders will mean that he´ll be the man

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P
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