10:30 is probably your best possible outcome, and depending on the day that will make it hard but not impossible to qualify for Kona. Using the word "maybe" when listing your goals is.....pu$$y.

Honestly, not very realistic. Your AG will have just a few slots and you would likely need to be a sub 4:30 Half IM guy to be in contention.

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-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
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Are you going to be an idiot and wear your spiderman outfit?

A 2:47 bike ride is not 2 hours and a bunch of change.

2 hours and a bunch of change is 2:00:3X or 2:00:4X or 2:00:5X



In response to your question though... a rule of thumb that you may find online if you surf a few forums is "double plus one" for calculating your IM time based on HIM time. double your time and add an hour. That would mean you're looking around 10:40. That's anticipating you do the preparation as well...

If you're 24 for next season's Kona qualification (ie not ageing up to the 25-29 AG... check the details on qualification rules, it's not your age on race day in IMLP) then perhaps you've got a chance. If you're racing as 25 then you probably don't have a chance for the Kona slot.

Maybe you swim 1 hour if things are amazing and the pool is really your home away from home. You're likely to be biking about a 6 hour ride with those kinds of numbers. Your marathon will likely stack up somewhere between 3:20 and 4:00 based on a 1:30 half and the fact that it will be your first try at Ironman (and so far as we know your first marathon too)

It all depends on how much time your gal gives you to train. If you crush her buns for a few hours one nite per week (while you're both drunk, of course), I suspect she'll give you the time to train. Then, your goal is maybe within reach.

I was thinking a speedo and a mankini top or an ARMY tri top...I hear that is the most aero outfit?

The crushing bunz is part of training...it is such a good core workout haha

Last years age group winner went 10:00 and some change...I want to go faster than that so that means I will go 9:59...SneakySpeed's official prediction...guess we'll find out on July 26th...kinda scary to think about...I'm a beast...

Thoughts:

1. Is it possible? Yes. I went 4:49 last year at Oceanside, then qualified at IMLP in the rain with a 10:08. Examining your AG (18-24) from the last three years, the two slots went to finishers between 10-flat and 10:30, with that number trending downward (I might expect 10-flat to be competitive again this year, with maybe 9:50ish a pretty good stamp of authority). If you'll turn 25 before the end of the year, then you'll actually be competing in M25-29, which means you'll need more like 9:40-45, at least.
   
2. What do you need to do to get there? Well, train, train, train. Then, execute, execute, execute. No secrets here. Build yourself a nuclear arsenal on the bike and then practice detante on race day -- pace yourself to unleash the beast during the last 10k of the marathon. There are a ton of guys fitter and faster than I am at the short stuff (even up to HIM's), but many of them overcook the bike or the early miles of the marathon and end up unable to access that speed/fitness on IM race day when it matters.

Hope that helps.

cramer

Only 24 years old. 2nd year in the sport. Doing an IM. Why?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Fleck, I am 25 and on my 3rd year in the sport. This year I will finish my 3rd 4th and 5th ironman. I don't do any races under HIM distance. I just don't find them enjoyable. Am I doing it backwards? I, like sneakyspead, have Kona aspirations this season also.

why not. I did my first tri, first HIM and first IM all in the same year at age 27. had fun and learned a hell of a lot about myself in the process.

I think the grizzled vets amoung us tend to look back at the youngsters with too conservative an opinion on what they should or should not attempt....forgetting how resilient one is at that age.

There is no harm in jumping in the IM boat early on if the person is decently fit and properly motivated, IMHO. Maybe not the smartest thing if someone is chasing a career as a pro...but that's a very small group.

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__________________
JP

my twitter feed

I don't do any races under HIM distance.

That's unfortunate, because, I don't think you will ever be able to maximize your performance at the IM without doing that. Just my thoughts, but also the thoughts of a number of top coaches in the sport.

And yes, you are going about it in a reverse way. Not that their is anything wrong with that, it's just that to better your performance at the longer races in the long run, then you should maximize your performance at the shorter races and then progressively move onto the longer and longer races - again, a view held by many of the top coaches. In fact, I was just talking to one of them the other day about this very subject - too many people racing too many IM races too soon and doing too many in a year. Of course, your mileage may vary! :)

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

no harm in jumping in the IM boat early on if the person is decently fit and properly motivated, IMHO. Maybe not the smartest thing if someone is chasing a career as a pro...but that's a very small group.

Agreed. But then we get these people back here on the ST forum after a few years wondering why they have plateaued at the IM distance and they keep pulling up short of getting a spot to IMH. Look into it a bit more and you find they are in an LSD rut. To go forwards they must go backwards. Seems counter-inutitive, but what they need to do is to go backwards in time and take a year or two and focus on sprint and Olympic distance racing - something that should have done first when they were starting out. If done right, when they return to IM and get back into that type of training, they'll blow their previous IM PB away!!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

If you're looking for reason why, ask all the top contenders. Macca, potts, mcglone, Wellington all had short course success before they even bothered with IM. You're young and have the ability to get really fast. You learn to train consistently and your body learns what speed is before you even get the chance to burnout from IM volume. I respect IM finishers, but I've always wondered why short course isn't as "cool."

I agree with you. I think it's as simple as doing what you want - right now. I also don't find the short races nearly as enjoyable as longer races.

Hey, are those bunz hot?

Thank you for providing relevant info, hard to come by on here sometimes but when it's put out there it generally is top notch. Thanks again...I will take oyur advice.

I've wanted to do one for quite some time now...probably would have done one earlier if I didn't run track for my college or get deployed for our country...everything works out for a reason I guess. I love triathlon it is part of who I am now and I want to feel what it is like to do an Ironman...I want to feel that emotion as I cross the finishline after a grueling day...I want to see how far I can push my body...I want an excuse to go to Hawaii...I want to compete and see how good I really am or how good I'm really not. I want to do it because I just want to

I hope you get that 9:59, but a goal without a plan is a dream.

...and you realize that the dreamcrusher Nat Faulkner could just jump on your back on loop 2 of the bike and end the dreams....so get a solid plan....and as Bryan said, you actually better be down to a solid 4:20-4:30 level of fitness on one of the tougher half IM courses to be sub 10 at LP.

Let me just say that I have done IMLP 9 times with 7 in the 10:1x to 10:4x range and my half IM times are usually in the 4:2x-4:3x range. One might say I underachieve at LP, but I prefer to say that I overachieve at the shorter distances.

For you as a weak biker and strong runner, there is a good chance that you never get to use your run fitness because your bike "relatively" sucks.

The biggest advice I can give you is bike bike bike and leave your car parked all summer. Bike everywhere you can. You need to do a 60+5:22+3:30+8 min of transitions to get to sub 10....right now, I say it is not about to happen.

You do realize that in 10 years of that race happening with somewhere in the range of 20,000 starters, only 400 have ever broken sub 10....and let's just say that there have been in the range of 150-200 of those times done by pros.....

Dev

I agree with you logic - however my son and i made an drunken bet - his 21st birthday and my 50th birthday to do an IM - we did Placid - he just under 10:30 First one... plenty of good memories from that one.

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Graham Wilson
USAT Level III Elite Coach
http://www.thewilsongroup.biz

You have a chance. However, you must put in the work. This means you will have to put in the training but not forget the resting part of the equation. I've done IMLP twice and if you pace yourself right on the 1st lap of the bike and 1st lap of the run it will get you that much closer to your objective. Just let them all go and you will catch back up on the 2nd lap, they will be slowing down big time and you will be feeling strong.

Good luck and have fun!

People have different motivations for doing triathlons, so if someone wants to do long stuff all the time, I guess it resonates with them on some level in addition to the competition. But if a prime motivation is the competition goal achievement, then sprints and high quality olympic races will sharpen your skills. To add to Fleck's comments, there simply is no place to hide in sprint races. If you have a flaw it will be exposed and there are not any extrainious excuses for that flaw...it is on you. When you have to face your flaws in the light of day it is easier to work on them, and the feedback is honest. Those improvements will then be magnified in the longer races, in the very way your flaws are also magnified in long races.

IIRC bladesofsteel went 10:00:xx last year with a flat tire and did not get a slot. He is more like a sub 4:30 HIM guy. The hardest part about racing to your potential in an IM is execution. Everyone says they are going to do it right, not many do. It is a long day out there and there are plenty of ways to chunk it. How many times have you ridden the bike loop at LP? Realistically you are going to need to ride in the 5:15 range and then run 3:30 to have much shot at 10 hours. I think the worst thing would be to have a great race for your first IM and be bummed out about it cause you did not qualify. Train hard, race to your potential and enjoy the experience. It is awesome. If you qualify, great. If not you will learn a lot and be in a better position to do it next year. Good luck.