2021: the view from here

Nov 14, 20 7:00

Post #1 of 30 (3111 views)

2020 isn’t fully baked yet (still gotta get to Big Kahuna status) but I’m more than ready to turn my focus to 2021. My assumptions are:

1. Things are really bad now in mid November and heading to worse. My guess is we’ll have a peak of 300-500k infections per day.
2. This will result in locally driven restrictions, some of which will impact training in early 21 (swimming may be hard to come by).
3. The new administration will almost certainly help, but the tide will be against them with virus at peak levels as they start, and a restive populace, many of whom will resist Washington leadership.
4. The vaccine will be real plus and begin to really make a difference in the 2nd Quarter
5. Infection rates will drop to very manageable levels by early summer with outdoors being more viable and some broader adoption of the vaccines
6. The virus will stay with us however for the foreseeable future. We’ll learn to live with it.
7. The new normal will begin to really take hold as the summer progresses.
8. Endurance sports will be part of that with significantly more events next year than this. Still below 2019, and probably smaller races on average. Very few Mass start races...

Given this, I’m going to try to continue to duck the virus as best as I can (hunker down). I’m going to wake up on 1/1/21 ready to get after it. I’m going to hit it hard in the first quarter laying the foundation. I’m going super strict on diet and sleep. Going to be a social hermit. Going to do a month or so training camp out west with my son. Going to wake up on 4/1/21 at race weight and long distance ready.

I’ll build from there through the year and race as many sprints as I can just because it’s what I like and I miss it (only 1 race this year). I hope to do Eagleman but that as 50/50 at best.

I’ll do my normal 14 week IM build and come October, hopefully do the big dance for the last time, which would be a celebratory capstone to my IM career.

And if this somewhat hopeful view falls short, then I’ll reboot and try to hold on to 2022....no other options seem better right now...

Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

Re: 2021: the view from here [rcmioga] [ In reply to ]

Nov 14, 20 7:14

Post #2 of 30 (3090 views)

I almost entirely agree with your thoughts. My only difference of opinion would be moving the goal posts out another quarter. I think a widely distributed vaccine to the majority of the populace and subsequent results may end up being more a 3Q thing than a 2Q thing. But I’d love to be wrong.

I have two May 70.3s on my calendar. Gulf Coast and Chattanooga eight days apart. I don’t have a lot of faith those happen and, if they did, if I want to be part of it.

My attention is going to be the second half of the year with Musselman 70.3, IMMT, IM Chattanooga, and IMAZ. I have a bone to pick with IMMT after what happened to me in 2014 so that’s my motivation but I don’t know what the Canadian border situation is going to be even in August 2021.

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Re: 2021: the view from here [rcmioga] [ In reply to ]

Nov 14, 20 8:09

Post #3 of 30 (3029 views)

Sounds like a good plan! I was (am) probably in the best endurance shape of my life and wish I could have tested that fitness at IM Florida. Looking at the results I should have been able to make the podium in my AG for the first time at the full distance. That would be very fulfilling. Having just finished the Big K I'm mentally exhausted from chasing endurance goals. And, the change in seasons here has also put a damper my training motivation. I believe I did make the right decision on entering the full IMCHOO next year and I agree that racing will best be executed in the second half of 2021. I just need to rest up now and get mentally prepared for another long training block starting the first of the year.

Re: 2021: the view from here [TJ56] [ In reply to ]

Nov 14, 20 8:20

Post #4 of 30 (3010 views)

I haven't missed much. Work, training or life. I had races defer but found other races to fill those spots. I race again in 3 weeks and have 5 planned races on the calendar for 2021

Adapt and overcome

Re: 2021: the view from here [rcmioga] [ In reply to ]

Nov 14, 20 8:31

Post #5 of 30 (2996 views)

As I cannot control the world around me, I will control what I can. My behaviour in terms of not interacting with others and spreading this, and other than that, I will train 1.5-3 hrs every day. Doing the latter, I will always be 6 weeks away from race shape, but I think it was Michael Phelps who was saying something along the lines of "you have to love the process not the result".

So without racing, we can have the same process (train train train), and enjoy it. If racing happens then bonus. I hope to race some local olympic tris at small scale (<100 people), and probably do a few soloman training camps. I think some of he local open water swimming races will be totally possible with distanced rolling starts (no reason why those cannot happen).

In a perfect world I will get to do the Alpe d'Huez tri and do a an Alps riding camp, but I doubt travel will be possible so I'll just stick local and try to enjoy it.

My head is in a decent space for sport because I can swim for now. I can have my own races by myself in the pool because at the pool I can measure my time and race myself. I am doing a lot of that and hit some PB's. My head is not in a great space for my business life, in that, while I control what I can, the livelihoods of all the staff are on the line the longer the virus tanks commerce and our sale does require a certain amount of person to person interaction via travel. Kinda sucks but this is what it is.

Re: 2021: the view from here [rcmioga] [ In reply to ]

Nov 15, 20 15:48

Post #6 of 30 (2691 views)

What does this mean? (still gotta get to Big Kahuna status)

Re: 2021: the view from here [johnnybefit] [ In reply to ]

Nov 15, 20 20:15

Post #7 of 30 (2571 views)

It’s one of the challenges like (but much smaller than) the 100 runs in 100 days challenge

Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

Re: 2021: the view from here [rcmioga] [ In reply to ]

Nov 16, 20 2:18

Post #8 of 30 (2468 views)

My plan for 2021 is to keep consistency in training and hope that there will be races. Also I will take a break in December and restart the preparation easely in January to be ready for a late season. I'm registered (deffered from 2020) for a race that is scheduled for the end of May but as the things are now I don't see this race happening.

Re: 2021: the view from here [rcmioga] [ In reply to ]

Nov 16, 20 12:35

Post #9 of 30 (2225 views)

rcmioga wrote:

2020 isn’t fully baked yet (still gotta get to Big Kahuna status) but I’m more than ready to turn my focus to 2021. My assumptions are:

1. Things are really bad now in mid November and heading to worse. My guess is we’ll have a peak of 300-500k infections per day.
2. This will result in locally driven restrictions, some of which will impact training in early 21 (swimming may be hard to come by).
3. The new administration will almost certainly help, but the tide will be against them with virus at peak levels as they start, and a restive populace, many of whom will resist Washington leadership.
4. The vaccine will be real plus and begin to really make a difference in the 2nd Quarter
5. Infection rates will drop to very manageable levels by early summer with outdoors being more viable and some broader adoption of the vaccines
6. The virus will stay with us however for the foreseeable future. We’ll learn to live with it.
7. The new normal will begin to really take hold as the summer progresses.
8. Endurance sports will be part of that with significantly more events next year than this. Still below 2019, and probably smaller races on average. Very few Mass start races...

Given this, I’m going to try to continue to duck the virus as best as I can (hunker down). I’m going to wake up on 1/1/21 ready to get after it. I’m going to hit it hard in the first quarter laying the foundation. I’m going super strict on diet and sleep. Going to be a social hermit. Going to do a month or so training camp out west with my son. Going to wake up on 4/1/21 at race weight and long distance ready.

I’ll build from there through the year and race as many sprints as I can just because it’s what I like and I miss it (only 1 race this year). I hope to do Eagleman but that as 50/50 at best.

I’ll do my normal 14 week IM build and come October, hopefully do the big dance for the last time, which would be a celebratory capstone to my IM career.

And if this somewhat hopeful view falls short, then I’ll reboot and try to hold on to 2022....no other options seem better right now...

1. We will not ever see 500k a day. The models have all been wrong. (kind of makes you wonder if we can't model a single virus what makes you think we can model global climate?)

2. Local decisions will drive everything.

3. The next admiration will not make a difference. Herd Immunity is a scientific fact and the normal course for most virus. You will either get the virus or you will get the vaccine. It's simple as that

4. The vaccine will be available for emergency cases next month, to front line responders in Jan and then the elderly. The general population will be getting shots by March/April.

5. Spring races will be by exception based on local condition (including politics). By summer it will be race on.

Re: 2021: the view from here [Rideon77] [ In reply to ]

Nov 16, 20 13:06

Post #10 of 30 (2193 views)

Rideon77 wrote:

rcmioga wrote:

2020 isn’t fully baked yet (still gotta get to Big Kahuna status) but I’m more than ready to turn my focus to 2021. My assumptions are:

1. Things are really bad now in mid November and heading to worse. My guess is we’ll have a peak of 300-500k infections per day.
2. This will result in locally driven restrictions, some of which will impact training in early 21 (swimming may be hard to come by).
3. The new administration will almost certainly help, but the tide will be against them with virus at peak levels as they start, and a restive populace, many of whom will resist Washington leadership.
4. The vaccine will be real plus and begin to really make a difference in the 2nd Quarter
5. Infection rates will drop to very manageable levels by early summer with outdoors being more viable and some broader adoption of the vaccines
6. The virus will stay with us however for the foreseeable future. We’ll learn to live with it.
7. The new normal will begin to really take hold as the summer progresses.
8. Endurance sports will be part of that with significantly more events next year than this. Still below 2019, and probably smaller races on average. Very few Mass start races...

Given this, I’m going to try to continue to duck the virus as best as I can (hunker down). I’m going to wake up on 1/1/21 ready to get after it. I’m going to hit it hard in the first quarter laying the foundation. I’m going super strict on diet and sleep. Going to be a social hermit. Going to do a month or so training camp out west with my son. Going to wake up on 4/1/21 at race weight and long distance ready.

I’ll build from there through the year and race as many sprints as I can just because it’s what I like and I miss it (only 1 race this year). I hope to do Eagleman but that as 50/50 at best.

I’ll do my normal 14 week IM build and come October, hopefully do the big dance for the last time, which would be a celebratory capstone to my IM career.

And if this somewhat hopeful view falls short, then I’ll reboot and try to hold on to 2022....no other options seem better right now...

1. We will not ever see 500k a day. The models have all been wrong. (kind of makes you wonder if we can't model a single virus what makes you think we can model global climate?)

2. Local decisions will drive everything.

3. The next admiration will not make a difference. Herd Immunity is a scientific fact and the normal course for most virus. You will either get the virus or you will get the vaccine. It's simple as that

4. The vaccine will be available for emergency cases next month, to front line responders in Jan and then the elderly. The general population will be getting shots by March/April.

5. Spring races will be by exception based on local condition (including politics). By summer it will be race on.

#2 is an important fact. It’s what gives me the most hope about racing next year in triathlons. My local triathlon race group has already released their schedule for 2021 and the numbers here, since June really, have supported being able to race. They actually had a race in October, but I couldn’t race due to prior commitments.

I’ve said it before that I think this is a great opportunity for smaller, local race directors to offer something in the gap. Ironman brand races have more chance of being canceled. Time for local RDs to step up and get creative and get folks back to racing.

Re: 2021: the view from here [Rideon77] [ In reply to ]

Nov 16, 20 17:12

Post #11 of 30 (2095 views)

Maybe my response should be LR, but

98 days for the 1st Million cases...
6 days for the most recent million...

Why wouldn't we hit 500k a day. What are we doing to change the course?

And the Biden administration has focused more about the virus in a week than the current in a month. Of course the new administration will make a difference.

Hopefully there will be some summer racing. I do not see Oceanside 70.3 happening

http://www.TriScottsdale.org

Re: 2021: the view from here [Sbernardi] [ In reply to ]

Nov 16, 20 20:28

Post #12 of 30 (2008 views)

Sbernardi wrote:

Maybe my response should be LR, but

98 days for the 1st Million cases...
6 days for the most recent million...

Why wouldn't we hit 500k a day. What are we doing to change the course?

And the Biden administration has focused more about the virus in a week than the current in a month. Of course the new administration will make a difference.

Hopefully there will be some summer racing. I do not see Oceanside 70.3 happening

I certainly hope we don't hit 500k in a day. Everyone I talk with says hospitals are close to maxed out now and that doesn't account for all of this week's new cases that will be next week's ICU cases.

Quite a few states are imposing restrictions again and that will slow the spread in those areas. I think people who have gotten lazy will also start to change their behavior and all but the biggest dumbshits will start to figure it out once they put the No Vacancy sign out at the hospitals. Unfortunately, there will be parts of the country that double down on stupid (South Dakota) and there will be a sizeable portion of the population that will keep on being idiots. I can certainly see a post-Thanksgiving 300,000 but hopefully sanity starts to prevail after that.

If worse comes to worse a 2-week lockdown would be pretty effective. France is about 10 days into theirs and new cases and hospital admissions are already dropping quickly. I guess it all comes down to political will.

Re: 2021: the view from here [Sbernardi] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 3:19

Post #13 of 30 (1941 views)

Vaccine will gave us back to almost normal within 12 months or less

Re: 2021: the view from here [MrTri123] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 3:27

Post #14 of 30 (1938 views)

MrTri123 wrote:

Vaccine will gave us back to almost normal within 12 months or less

I don’t think it’ll be that easy. You’re going to have a big portion of the country at least the US who all onboard the fuck science train and it’s gonna take some work to get back to normal.

That said I’m planning on a fall running season for 2021. I think there is a real chance that will kick off without the risk for people who have been vaccinated. I wouldn’t be surprised if races require a vaccination confirmation to register.

Given the number of people that need to be vaccinated I think summer is still going to be pretty boring but it’ll start to free up around august next year if I had to guess. It really depends on how quick they can ramp up production and how many people are actually willing to take the vaccine.

Re: 2021: the view from here [Grantbot21] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 3:58

Post #15 of 30 (1912 views)

Just get vaccinated and come and race in Canada. I don't see too many people who will be against getting on with life afteer a needle over here. I would imagine that the Cdn Govt will quickly lift the entire quarantine thing as soon as one can prove they are vaccinated.

Re: 2021: the view from here [rcmioga] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 4:38

Post #16 of 30 (1883 views)

Randy,

I think I agree with your forecast. I have Challenge Roth on the calendar for July 4 . . . what are the odds of that? I produce a race on July 25 . . . I'm hopefully. FYI - I deferred my Kona to 2022 . . . I worry that I am getting too old!

Best wishes,

David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

Re: 2021: the view from here [david] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 5:00

Post #17 of 30 (1867 views)

Hey David, I’m optimistic about Roth. My son is racing there as well, and I may fly wingman to help, so maybe see you there....we both deferred Kona to 2021...

With my knee, I’m pretty sure 2022 starts to get beyond the edge of viability for me...

Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

Re: 2021: the view from here [rcmioga] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 5:18

Post #18 of 30 (1839 views)

Quote:

Given this, I’m going to try to continue to duck the virus as best as I can (hunker down). I’m going to wake up on 1/1/21 ready to get after it.

Same regarding your first sentence. I have started training already since I am signed up for three gravel races already in 2021, with the first one in early January. They have drastically limited the number of entries compared to the past so hopefully that race will happen. The others are mid March and June.

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Re: 2021: the view from here [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 5:59

Post #19 of 30 (1804 views)

In talking with my athletes all over the globe I agree on much of what has been said.

Some countries are going to have much, much, much more racing opportunities than the US. They've done a much, much, much better job at managing it both on a national level, a state/local gov't level and a population that embraced shutdowns, social distancing and mask wearing early to insure openness later. Here in the US, well, not so much.

It's going to be Q3 2021 at the earliest before we even begin to get close to the # of people vaccinated. I see pfizer's vaccine more suitable for large scale, all at once vaccinations. Hospitals, high density/high risk population centers such as senior homes, prisons where Modenra's will be more suitable for minute clinics, doc offices, pharmacies. I also really think it's Q1 2022 before we reach the vaccination penetration that we need in order to get a handle on this.

Which means for racing it's going to be hit or miss in 2021 with a better chance of hits as the season progresses. What's going on locally will have the most impact on a race. If it's in a high risk/high infection area the smaller the race the better the chance of it going off.

Unfortunately over the last 4 years we've seen facts become less persuasive and having lessor ability to persuade public opinion while appeals to emotions and personally held views have become more influential in shaping opinions and behaviors. This will cost the US at least 1 full quarter of time where people could be getting vaccinated in the numbers needed but don't.

On a side note I'm currently in NC and it's amazing the # of people not wearing masks compared to AZ. When I was back in AZ a few weeks ago at most 3 people out of 50 in the grocery store in AZ didn't have a mask and often I saw everyone masked. Here in NC it's never < 5 and often close to 10 not wearing a mask.

This is but an example of why it's going to take the US at least 1 full quarter longer to than it should to get where we need to be at least imo.

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Last edited by: desert dude: Nov 17, 20 6:02

Re: 2021: the view from here [desert dude] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 6:17

Post #20 of 30 (1779 views)

Brian, it’s not just state to state differences but within state. I’ve had to travel around north Florida a bit for work the last couple of months and there’s such a disparity from place to place. Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Tallahassee, Gainesville... 95% mask compliance. Ocala, Panama City, Pensacola... maybe 60%. Redneck counties and areas in between cities... 20%.

It’s not lost on anyone the redder the county the less mask compliance.

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Last edited by: The GMAN: Nov 17, 20 6:18

Re: 2021: the view from here [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 6:28

Post #21 of 30 (1763 views)

The GMAN wrote:

Brian, it’s not just state to state differences but within state. I’ve had to travel around north Florida a bit for work the last couple of months and there’s such a disparity from place to place. Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Tallahassee, Gainesville... 95% mask compliance. Ocala, Panama City, Pensacola... maybe 60%. Redneck counties and areas in between cities... 20%.

It’s not lost on anyone the redder the county the less mask compliance.

Yep, that’s pretty much been my observation of North Florida as well.

Re: 2021: the view from here [desert dude] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 6:35

Post #22 of 30 (1752 views)

Quote:

On a side note I'm currently in NC and it's amazing the # of people not wearing masks compared to AZ. When I was back in AZ a few weeks ago at most 3 people out of 50 in the grocery store in AZ didn't have a mask and often I saw everyone masked. Here in NC it's never < 5 and often close to 10 not wearing a mask.

Where in NC? When we were in Asheville, it was more like 95% wearing masks there.

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Re: 2021: the view from here [ironclm] [ In reply to ]

Nov 17, 20 6:40

Post #23 of 30 (1746 views)

I'm in the High Point/Greensboro/Winston-Salem area

Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
Insta

Re: 2021: the view from here [desert dude] [ In reply to ]

Nov 18, 20 5:47

Post #24 of 30 (1578 views)

"High Point/Greensboro/Winston-Salem area"
-------------------
Yah, some crazy attitudes around here. A guy at the Y the other day wasn't wearing a mask in violation of the rules. I say "hey Jim - come 'on, put on a mask." Jim says "I believe in freedom and I'm not going to live in fear." I ask what the hell that has to do with public health . . . of course no response. There is A LOT of that type attitude around here. I'm not the brightest bulb so I wish someone could explain that to me.

David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

Last edited by: david: Nov 18, 20 6:55

Re: 2021: the view from here [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]

Nov 18, 20 6:44

Post #25 of 30 (1520 views)

Agreed, I think any expectations that vaccines will constitute a magic bullet in the next 3-6 months need to be re-calibrated. Vaccines will help hugely once they're widely distributed, and assuming no big hiccups like mutations rendering 1st generation vaccines ineffective. However, even with all going well, it's going to take time to manufacture, distribute and administer massive numbers of doses and until we have a better idea of the duration of effectiveness there is a lot left unknown.
I agree moving things back a quarter from the OP's scenario is likely to be closer to the mark.

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