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Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [flynnzu]
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Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [Carl Spackler]
[ In reply to ]
"giving the French public hope before Pinot dashes it"
that was funny
that was funny
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [trail]
[ In reply to ]
trail wrote:
echappist wrote:
Tri_Joeri wrote:
The false positive tests are a farse really. Positives WILL come up during the 3 week period, more than once I'd say. How many teams will be left in week 3? Will we see a team with the GC leader at that point get kicked off of the Tour? What if that rider is French, cover it up quickly?
They are regrettable, but they are not a farce. We are still only about 7-8 months into this thing, and there's a lot that we don't know. Three years down the road, false positives definitely would be less acceptable, but accuracy needs to be balanced by urgency.
The alternative to all this is that there could just be no cycling, whatsoever. I doubt anyone would want that. Least worst option among many options, unfortunately
Also though I love conspiracy theories, I don't think there's much risk of a coverup. I'd assume that the UCI, not the ASO, is responsible for overseeing test results. The UCI race jury is multi-national, and generally doesn't seem to give a crap about pleasing the race promoter - e.g. ejecting Nizzolo (Italian) on the last stage of the Giro for a minor sprint deviation that didn't result in a crash. Or ejecting Sagan from the TdF which probably upset a lot of sponsors.
No test is perfect and I don't think it is it typical for the true positive rate of these types of tests to be much more than 98% (The term is test specificity if you want to look it up on Wikipedia). There is a trade off though. A test that rarely generates a false positive also doesn't do a good job of detecting the virus/pathogen (test sensitivity). The real problem we had in the US with the early tests is that the sensitivity was low so infected people were getting negative test results and going on to infect other people.
The problem with doing a lot of testing on the same group over and over again is that the numbers game catches up to you and you will get some false positives. I would guess that their plan is to isolate the rider and retest. Both the original false positive and the followup testing all take time and you want to act quickly. We live in an imperfect world.
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [echappist]
[ In reply to ]
Part of being a bike nerd is all the nice goodies that might make you go faster, I think we're al guilty of that haha.
The false positive tests are a farse really. Positives WILL come up during the 3 week period, more than once I'd say. How many teams will be left in week 3? Will we see a team with the GC leader at that point get kicked off of the Tour? What if that rider is French, cover it up quickly?
They are regrettable, but they are not a farce. We are still only about 7-8 months into this thing, and there's a lot that we don't know. Three years down the road, false positives definitely would be less acceptable, but accuracy needs to be balanced by urgency.
The alternative to all this is that there could just be no cycling, whatsoever. I doubt anyone would want that. Least worst option among many options, unfortunately
Also though I love conspiracy theories, I don't think there's much risk of a coverup. I'd assume that the UCI, not the ASO, is responsible for overseeing test results. The UCI race jury is multi-national, and generally doesn't seem to give a crap about pleasing the race promoter - e.g. ejecting Nizzolo (Italian) on the last stage of the Giro for a minor sprint deviation that didn't result in a crash. Or ejecting Sagan from the TdF which probably upset a lot of sponsors.
No test is perfect and I don't think it is it typical for the true positive rate of these types of tests to be much more than 98% (The term is test specificity if you want to look it up on Wikipedia). There is a trade off though. A test that rarely generates a false positive also doesn't do a good job of detecting the virus/pathogen (test sensitivity). The real problem we had in the US with the early tests is that the sensitivity was low so infected people were getting negative test results and going on to infect other people.
The problem with doing a lot of testing on the same group over and over again is that the numbers game catches up to you and you will get some false positives. I would guess that their plan is to isolate the rider and retest. Both the original false positive and the followup testing all take time and you want to act quickly. We live in an imperfect world.
Exactly.. You could do it for a staff member but you can't take one rider out of the peleton for a day, retest and then allow them to enter the race again the day after that.
I guess we'll just have to enjoy it while it lasts..
grumpier.mike wrote:
trail wrote:
echappist wrote:
Tri_Joeri wrote:
The false positive tests are a farse really. Positives WILL come up during the 3 week period, more than once I'd say. How many teams will be left in week 3? Will we see a team with the GC leader at that point get kicked off of the Tour? What if that rider is French, cover it up quickly?
They are regrettable, but they are not a farce. We are still only about 7-8 months into this thing, and there's a lot that we don't know. Three years down the road, false positives definitely would be less acceptable, but accuracy needs to be balanced by urgency.
The alternative to all this is that there could just be no cycling, whatsoever. I doubt anyone would want that. Least worst option among many options, unfortunately
Also though I love conspiracy theories, I don't think there's much risk of a coverup. I'd assume that the UCI, not the ASO, is responsible for overseeing test results. The UCI race jury is multi-national, and generally doesn't seem to give a crap about pleasing the race promoter - e.g. ejecting Nizzolo (Italian) on the last stage of the Giro for a minor sprint deviation that didn't result in a crash. Or ejecting Sagan from the TdF which probably upset a lot of sponsors.
No test is perfect and I don't think it is it typical for the true positive rate of these types of tests to be much more than 98% (The term is test specificity if you want to look it up on Wikipedia). There is a trade off though. A test that rarely generates a false positive also doesn't do a good job of detecting the virus/pathogen (test sensitivity). The real problem we had in the US with the early tests is that the sensitivity was low so infected people were getting negative test results and going on to infect other people.
The problem with doing a lot of testing on the same group over and over again is that the numbers game catches up to you and you will get some false positives. I would guess that their plan is to isolate the rider and retest. Both the original false positive and the followup testing all take time and you want to act quickly. We live in an imperfect world.
Exactly.. You could do it for a staff member but you can't take one rider out of the peleton for a day, retest and then allow them to enter the race again the day after that.
I guess we'll just have to enjoy it while it lasts..
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [Tri_Joeri]
[ In reply to ]
So, it’s back to the old B Sample thing again?
:)
:)
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [dsmallwood]
[ In reply to ]
dsmallwood wrote:
"giving the French public hope before Pinot dashes it" that was funny
Well its more hope than any American public can hope for. Its been a bit of a drought since Lance + Floyd. Depending on how you are counting it, France and America have to go back to Lemond vs Hinault for glory days, so its roughtly a wash :-). Personally I am counting the Lance vs Ullrich vs Basso days to get a leg up on France for my American friends!
But I would love to see Pinot win if Dumoulin can't take it, but a Quintana vs Dumoulin battle like Giro 2017 minus the final ITT would be great (well the final ITT this time has 6 km of climber friendly Planche de Belle Filles).
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [McNulty]
[ In reply to ]
McNulty wrote:
So, it’s back to the old B Sample thing again? :)
well played :)
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [devashish_paul]
[ In reply to ]
devashish_paul wrote:
dsmallwood wrote:
"giving the French public hope before Pinot dashes it" that was funny
Well its more hope than any American public can hope for. Its been a bit of a drought since Lance + Floyd. Depending on how you are counting it, France and America have to go back to Lemond vs Hinault for glory days, so its roughtly a wash :-). Personally I am counting the Lance vs Ullrich vs Basso days to get a leg up on France for my American friends!
But I would love to see Pinot win if Dumoulin can't take it, but a Quintana vs Dumoulin battle like Giro 2017 minus the final ITT would be great (well the final ITT this time has 6 km of climber friendly Planche de Belle Filles).
I’d enjoy seeing Quintana finally get a Tour win. He’s never survived the pressure or the tactics of others, and it’d be nice to watch him put it altogether for a change.
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [McNulty]
[ In reply to ]
And controversial Dutch labs.
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [FFigawi]
[ In reply to ]
FFigawi wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
dsmallwood wrote:
"giving the French public hope before Pinot dashes it" that was funny
Well its more hope than any American public can hope for. Its been a bit of a drought since Lance + Floyd. Depending on how you are counting it, France and America have to go back to Lemond vs Hinault for glory days, so its roughtly a wash :-). Personally I am counting the Lance vs Ullrich vs Basso days to get a leg up on France for my American friends!
But I would love to see Pinot win if Dumoulin can't take it, but a Quintana vs Dumoulin battle like Giro 2017 minus the final ITT would be great (well the final ITT this time has 6 km of climber friendly Planche de Belle Filles).
I’d enjoy seeing Quintana finally get a Tour win. He’s never survived the pressure or the tactics of others, and it’d be nice to watch him put it altogether for a change.
What is the math on how much Quintana or bardet would need on Dumoulin or roglic going into Planche de Belle filles ITT. 80 seconds assuming they lose nothing on the climb and all losses are first 20km related
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [devashish_paul]
[ In reply to ]
devashish_paul wrote:
What is the math on how much Quintana or bardet would need on Dumoulin or roglic going into Planche de Belle filles ITT. 80 seconds assuming they lose nothing on the climb and all losses are first 20km related
Dang, Bardet just blushed wherever he is because you're including him with Dumoulin, Roglic, and Quintana.
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [trail]
[ In reply to ]
The region containing Nice (location of Grand Depart) is placed under red alert
https://www.theguardian.com/...grand-depart-in-nice
https://www.theguardian.com/...grand-depart-in-nice
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [trail]
[ In reply to ]
The worlds course TD won on is a little easier on paper but stage 17 still suits him. Ironically, he beat Roglic by nearly a minute and Froome by even more. Those two will smoke the course, will come down to who is less tired.
Bardet, OTOH, would need a 20k head start to put up a respectable time against them.
Bardet, OTOH, would need a 20k head start to put up a respectable time against them.
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [Carl Spackler]
[ In reply to ]
Carl Spackler wrote:
The worlds course TD won on is a little easier on paper but stage 17 still suits him. Ironically, he beat Roglic by nearly a minute and Froome by even more. Those two will smoke the course, will come down to who is less tired. Bardet, OTOH, would need a 20k head start to put up a respectable time against them.
I'm not a huge "ride into form in a GT" proponent, but what with crazy form differences, positive tests, crashes to be expected from tired, cross eyed riders, I'm thinking the steady TD or Pinot, Bardet, Uran, Quintana types who stay out of trouble and know when to throw down could fill the podium. I don't see it as a dominant team that stays healthy kind of race. More a war of attrition.
Also looking forward to Thomas de Gendt doing his thing, which is always awesome.
Sentimental favorite is Pinot. A gamer who had an embarrassing meltdown. Maybe two.
The French get a bad rap. Didn't dope hard like the Italians, Spanish, Eastern Euros and oh yeah, the Americans. And they crush the world in the finer things- fashion, wine, food, art, podium girls, and looking down their noses at you.
Ok, their cars suck and they make it tough to get to know them but once you do, you're mishpocha. Especially in the rural areas. Paris, not so much. Tough crowd. But Lafayette saved our asses in the Revolutionary War, so I'm in.
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [McNulty]
[ In reply to ]
such a great post
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [Classics Fans]
[ In reply to ]
I don’t know all the players but I know some.
DeGendt
Gilbert
Degenkobble
Caleb Ewan
Frison Frederik
kluge_roger
Jasper DeBuyst
SteffCras
What can this team accomplish? Ewan gets 1, maybe 2, of the pure sprints? Do Phil or DeGendt have enough to get a breakaway win? these "hilly" stages look very mountainy to me. and John D ...
thoughts please
DeGendt
Gilbert
Degenkobble
Caleb Ewan
Frison Frederik
kluge_roger
Jasper DeBuyst
SteffCras
What can this team accomplish? Ewan gets 1, maybe 2, of the pure sprints? Do Phil or DeGendt have enough to get a breakaway win? these "hilly" stages look very mountainy to me. and John D ...
thoughts please
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [dsmallwood]
[ In reply to ]
I think Lotto racks up a few stages wins. They a likeable team. Assume most folks root for them.
With that team, Caleb has a full raft of strong folks to row him to the front.
There are several stages where the breakaway likely stays away. DeGendt gets at least one.
Would love to see Phil Gil get one. No sense of where his form is.
With that team, Caleb has a full raft of strong folks to row him to the front.
There are several stages where the breakaway likely stays away. DeGendt gets at least one.
Would love to see Phil Gil get one. No sense of where his form is.
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [McNulty]
[ In reply to ]
Don’t forget French fries, my favorite vegetable, among their contributions. I’ll endure their cars to ride their roads, plow through mountains of fries, and guzzle gallons of burgundy anytime.
I’m just giving Bardet grief. He’s been on TdF podium twice. He rides classics and monuments. Finished 2nd at worlds. Rolls with panache and forces the action instead of following wheels. I’m a fan. Sometimes I wish he’d just stage hunt and rack up wins instead of minor GC placing but this year’s course could be quite good for him.
I’m just giving Bardet grief. He’s been on TdF podium twice. He rides classics and monuments. Finished 2nd at worlds. Rolls with panache and forces the action instead of following wheels. I’m a fan. Sometimes I wish he’d just stage hunt and rack up wins instead of minor GC placing but this year’s course could be quite good for him.
Last edited by:
Carl Spackler: Aug 27, 20 21:00
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [McNulty]
[ In reply to ]
McNulty wrote:
Carl Spackler wrote:
The worlds course TD won on is a little easier on paper but stage 17 still suits him. Ironically, he beat Roglic by nearly a minute and Froome by even more. Those two will smoke the course, will come down to who is less tired. Bardet, OTOH, would need a 20k head start to put up a respectable time against them.
I'm not a huge "ride into form in a GT" proponent, but what with crazy form differences, positive tests, crashes to be expected from tired, cross eyed riders, I'm thinking the steady TD or Pinot, Bardet, Uran, Quintana types who stay out of trouble and know when to throw down could fill the podium. I don't see it as a dominant team that stays healthy kind of race. More a war of attrition.
Also looking forward to Thomas de Gendt doing his thing, which is always awesome.
Sentimental favorite is Pinot. A gamer who had an embarrassing meltdown. Maybe two.
The French get a bad rap. Didn't dope hard like the Italians, Spanish, Eastern Euros and oh yeah, the Americans. And they crush the world in the finer things- fashion, wine, food, art, podium girls, and looking down their noses at you.
Ok, their cars suck and they make it tough to get to know them but once you do, you're mishpocha. Especially in the rural areas. Paris, not so much. Tough crowd. But Lafayette saved our asses in the Revolutionary War, so I'm in.
French cars suck??
https://www.youtube.com/embed/PkkV1vLHUvQ
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [fulla]
[ In reply to ]
I'll see your Chiron and raise you a Cactus ;-).
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [Carl Spackler]
[ In reply to ]
Carl Spackler wrote:
Don’t forget French fries, my favorite vegetable, among their contributions. I’ll endure their cars to ride their roads, plow through mountains of fries, and guzzle gallons of burgundy anytime. I’m just giving Bardet grief. He’s been on TdF podium twice. He rides classics and monuments. Finished 2nd at worlds. Rolls with panache and forces the action instead of following wheels. I’m a fan. Sometimes I wish he’d just stage hunt and rack up wins instead of minor GC placing but this year’s course could be quite good for him.
Absolutely right about Bardet.
Ok, their rental cars suck. And the baggage handlers who crushed my bike in Toulouse suck.
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [McNulty]
[ In reply to ]
Velogames Slowtwitch League is open
League ID: 652293710
Back after a 2 year hiatus!
League ID: 652293710
Back after a 2 year hiatus!
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [McNulty]
[ In reply to ]
Guess we’re doing this. See you on the start line, gents.
Re: *Spoilers* 2020 Cycling Restart Thread *Spoilers* [Carl Spackler]
[ In reply to ]
Yes!
Ok, bold (out the arse) predictions:
Danny Martinez. Really bold would be that he’s on the top step. Kinda bold is he’s on the box. Rigo with the assist. Higgi gets a stage.
Not that bold really.
Got a pro buddy who lives in Nice. Grand Depart is eerily quiet. Happy racing.
Danny Martinez. Really bold would be that he’s on the top step. Kinda bold is he’s on the box. Rigo with the assist. Higgi gets a stage.
Not that bold really.
Got a pro buddy who lives in Nice. Grand Depart is eerily quiet. Happy racing.