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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [KingMidas] [ In reply to ]
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KingMidas wrote:
In a couple of those non sprint stages, Sagan will be up there in the breakaway. He will get max int bonuses. Each one of those is 10-20 points over Gaviria.

Plus, I would favor Sagan over Gaviria on the cobbles on Sunday given that he is the Paris-Roubaix winner.


Again...I agree with you based on past experiences. But look at the remaining stages and tell me which stages he's going to get max bonuses where Gaviria will get 0. I count stage 12...and maybe stage 15, but my guess is that everyone and their mom will want to be in the break for stage 15. I highly doubt stage 17 as that's likely to be full gas up the first cat 1 given the stage is only 65 km total. All the other stages have been set up where the intermediate sprint is well before the major categorized climbs. It was like this last year, but we didn't notice as much since Sagan was kicked out early...and we just assumed we would have smashed everyone for Green. He likely still would have since Kittel scooped up all the early points and then got time cut, but Sagan wouldn't have scooped up as many intermediate points as he has in the past if he finished the whole tour. As already mentioned above, the ASO is subtly changing the system (where they put the intermediate sprints and how many non mountain stages have a Sagan like finish) to make it harder for Sagan to win.

Before the tour started, I thought exactly as you did...then I looked at the stage profiles and I don't see this as a slam dunk unless Gaviria cracks. Which is very possible just like Kittel did.

ETA: The one thing I will give Sagan is that on the flat stages, like you said...he is consistently top 5...meaning if there are 5 flat stages left, he may not win any, but he's cashing significant points in each one. Other top sprinters may win more often on flat field sprints, but every once in a while they are a complete no show and get 0 points. I'm not sure if Gaviria can match that consistency in the 5 remaining flat stages, but so far he has when going heads up with Sagan. QSF also has the best team to support Gaviria...to prevent the no show possibility that some sprinters face when their team can't put them in the right position in the final 3 km.
Last edited by: Jason N: Jul 12, 18 17:48
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [trail] [ In reply to ]
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On the other hand, Gaviria has the winners of the Tour of Flanders, E3 Harelbeke, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Dwars door Vlaanderen, and La Fleche Wallone on his team. And Gilbert.

jeeeeezus. when you put it that way ......



I think the Sky Train will have something to say. the rest of the teams will be in the cobble equivalent of the Groupetto.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Jason N wrote:
KingMidas wrote:
In a couple of those non sprint stages, Sagan will be up there in the breakaway. He will get max int bonuses. Each one of those is 10-20 points over Gaviria.

Plus, I would favor Sagan over Gaviria on the cobbles on Sunday given that he is the Paris-Roubaix winner.


Again...I agree with you based on past experiences. But look at the remaining stages and tell me which stages he's going to get max bonuses where Gaviria will get 0. I count stage 12...and maybe stage 15, but my guess is that everyone and their mom will want to be in the break for stage 15. I highly doubt stage 17 as that's likely to be full gas up the first cat 1 given the stage is only 65 km total. All the other stages have been set up where the intermediate sprint is well before the major categorized climbs. It was like this last year, but we didn't notice as much since Sagan was kicked out early...and we just assumed we would have smashed everyone for Green. He likely still would have since Kittel scooped up all the early points and then got time cut, but Sagan wouldn't have scooped up as many intermediate points as he has in the past if he finished the whole tour. As already mentioned above, the ASO is subtly changing the system (where they put the intermediate sprints and how many non mountain stages have a Sagan like finish) to make it harder for Sagan to win.

Before the tour started, I thought exactly as you did...then I looked at the stage profiles and I don't see this as a slam dunk unless Gaviria cracks. Which is very possible just like Kittel did.

ETA: The one thing I will give Sagan is that on the flat stages, like you said...he is consistently top 5...meaning if there are 5 flat stages left, he may not win any, but he's cashing significant points in each one. Other top sprinters may win more often on flat field sprints, but every once in a while they are a complete no show and get 0 points. I'm not sure if Gaviria can match that consistency in the 5 remaining flat stages, but so far he has when going heads up with Sagan. QSF also has the best team to support Gaviria...to prevent the no show possibility that some sprinters face when their team can't put them in the right position in the final 3 km.

I think 15,16,17,19 are all Sagan points. There is no way Gaviria is staying with Sagan on 15 over a category 2 climb. He is already falling back on 4’s and 3’s. I also think the intermediates in 8, 10, and 11 are Sagan advantage with sprints on the uphills or immediately after a punchy cat4. BTW, I can’t wait for Stage 11!!!!

Not only that, Sagan will surprise you with stages like today. We are all dissecting which of the climbers is gonna win today and here is Sagan grabbing 8th and getting points.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [KingMidas] [ In reply to ]
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Just to further whip this dead horse, Gaviria is not a lock on flat stages. He really needs the massive lead out he's been getting and not all run ins are created equally.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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McNulty wrote:
Just to further whip this dead horse, Gaviria is not a lock on flat stages. He really needs the massive lead out he's been getting and not all run ins are created equally.

Agree, today was a very fast finish. My thought is that Gaviria will fade over the tour due to the demands of this year. This first week is harder than normal and then you have some monster mountain stages. It's obvious and i know you know this, but that is why Sagan can lock up the green jersey, he does not fade over the course of the tour, often having his most inspired/daring stages in the last week.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Was thinking the exact same thing. Gaviria is already disappearing on stages with any bumps while Sagan hasn’t finished lower than 3rd other than TTT. That’s remarkable consistency, plus he has many more GTs under his belt and knows how to manage energy.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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He is under a lot of pressure to win every sprint stage. Stage like today when Groenewegen takes max points, hurts him a lot.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [KingMidas] [ In reply to ]
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And Groenewegen blew him away today. Tomorrow ought to be interesting.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [KingMidas] [ In reply to ]
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Sagan definitely dodged a bullet by Gaviria not taking max points and he did well to bike throw for 3rd. Always amazed at his tenacity when the finish doesn't favor him. Keeping his point loss to 12 on this stage is a better than average day as it had potential for a 30+ point loss.

Are Cav and Kittel going to be complete no shows this tour? Kittel finished 118th today...dead last out of the peloton that came to the line and given the same time. Today was a very easy day for the peloton with the break caught so early...I can't imagine Kittel was "saving it for tomorrow."
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Jason N wrote:
Sagan definitely dodged a bullet by Gaviria not taking max points and he did well to bike throw for 3rd. Always amazed at his tenacity when the finish doesn't favor him. Keeping his point loss to 12 on this stage is a better than average day as it had potential for a 30+ point loss.

Are Cav and Kittel going to be complete no shows this tour? Kittel finished 118th today...dead last out of the peloton that came to the line and given the same time. Today was a very easy day for the peloton with the break caught so early...I can't imagine Kittel was "saving it for tomorrow."

Cavendish is done. Not sure if he knows it or not. Not only physically but also he seems to have developed PTSD. Today when he lost control of his bike just a tad, he stopped sprinting. He did the same thing a few stages ago. If you can’t be fearless in a sprint, you can’t sprint anymore.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [KingMidas] [ In reply to ]
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Cav's crashed a lot, but that last one at MSR would probably give a lot of people PTSD.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Cav looks like he’s had enough of trading paint in sprints. Can’t really blame him with one hit after another. Boonen got to same point but was already a classics beast and had something to fall back on. Would Cav want to be last leadout man? Hard to see that. Back to the track with Wiggo?

Sort of wonder if Greipel is in same place.

Kittel, OTOH, has no such excuse. He looks lost out there and can’t find any groove. Shows how good a manager Lefevere is, and how good a choice he made with Gaviria.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Or maybe he has mental issues again. Didn’t he take a year off for that?
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [KingMidas] [ In reply to ]
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Love Greipel. He’s an atypical sprinter who can and will help his team when he can and will ride just for the joy of it. Cav will too, just doesn't have the same mass. He’s an all time great but it seems like it’s time to move on. He’d make a great color commentator with subtitles.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Carl Spackler wrote:
Cav looks like he’s had enough of trading paint in sprints. Can’t really blame him with one hit after another. Boonen got to same point but was already a classics beast and had something to fall back on. Would Cav want to be last leadout man? Hard to see that. Back to the track with Wiggo?

Sort of wonder if Greipel is in same place.

Kittel, OTOH, has no such excuse. He looks lost out there and can’t find any groove. Shows how good a manager Lefevere is, and how good a choice he made with Gaviria.


I think it shows just how important the team is for their sprinter. QS were strong leading out kittel a few years ago and he won a fair bit off of that. However Gaviria looks really damn strong your right.

As for cav he’s just not in form imo. Coupled with age he’s a fair bit off it. Last tour I thought Eddie boss was riding very well when he didn’t have cav to look after, maybe dimension data should see what they can do with haegan.

Griepel wasn’t far off it a few stages ago. I like the gorilla but he isn’t getting any younger either.
When you have Gaviria and groenwaegen etc coming through as young hungry sprinters the old dogs have to find another gear.

Who I find looks lost is dengenkolb. Maybe not an out and out sprinter, but since his crash with giant he hasn’t unfortunately been able to come back to form for Trek. Speaking of Trek they have rumoured to sign Porte for 2 years after this year. Starting to think trek likes the older studs in the twilight of their careers
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [KingMidas] [ In reply to ]
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KingMidas wrote:
Or maybe he has mental issues again. Didn’t he take a year off for that?

Word in the peloton- diva. Lacks grit and not a team guy. Massive talent, obviously. When he's on he’s a phenom.

You can’t ride for QS without serious mental toughness. Knew of a talented young American rider they were pursuing and said rider’s agent said flat out no, they’ll chew you up and spit you out. They’re all Belgian business.

I’m taking Kittel today. DS apparently read him the riot act this morning. If he isn’t top 3 he may be sent packing.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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The Grooner looks like a young Cav.
Nice battle from the gorilla.
Katusha should try to trade Zakarin for some cash and send the team home and save a few bucks.
Danny Boy has a history of being lazy in positioning. Blaming the victim, sort of. Sucks for him but he’ll ride aggressively in the mountains.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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tony martin hasnt done much with katusha either, speaking of martins. Something up with that team
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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He has a crazy burst of speed; not even close again today.

Alrighty, the first battle royale is afoot. Uran and Porte might have the best supporting cast around them. I’m predicting Nibali, Uran and GT up front with the rest of the GC contenders giving up some time. Going out on a limb: Froome, Bardet and Quintana lose big.

Want to see Sagan win but imagine it’ll be a bit of negative racing up front if a small group forms. Hard to look past QS in that scenario. And does GvA ride or wait for Porte?
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Carl Spackler wrote:
He has a crazy burst of speed; not even close again today.

Alrighty, the first battle royale is afoot. Uran and Porte might have the best supporting cast around them. I’m predicting Nibali, Uran and GT up front with the rest of the GC contenders giving up some time. Going out on a limb: Froome, Bardet and Quintana lose big.

Want to see Sagan win but imagine it’ll be a bit of negative racing up front if a small group forms. Hard to look past QS in that scenario. And does GvA ride or wait for Porte?

I do think Froome does fine on the cobbles, he is too calculated not to have a specific plan and be well prepared. I suspect GVA can ride for himself but will not have team support during the stage as most others will be with Porte, likely same for Sagan. Nibali and Valverde could be the really dangerous GC contenders who could make some moves tomorrow. At the end of the day it comes down to mechanicals and wind.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Gaviria and Griepel both relegated, not sure what i think about that? In the end Sagan benefits the most.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Wow...Looked like Gaviria had enough pop to win and pounce on Sagan going too early to gain massive points if Griepel hadn’t closed him off, but in the end I guess Sagan is the one who gains 30 points on Gaviria.

Maybe a little bit of retribution to Sagan for last years ruling against him?

Interesting to see Sagan not lock on Gaviria in the final 500. Gaviria was too far back just like yesterday, but Sagan seemed impatient. Which is unusual.

I felt like Griepel should have been entitled to his line. He wants Sagan’s slipstream, and given his position over Gaviria at the time, it should be his to claim.
Last edited by: Jason N: Jul 14, 18 9:53
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Jason N wrote:
Wow...Looked like Gaviria had enough pop to win and pounce on Sagan going too early to gain massive points if Griepel hadn’t closed him off, but in the end I guess Sagan is the one who gains 30 points on Gaviria.

Maybe a little bit of retribution to Sagan for last years ruling against him?

Interesting to see Sagan not lock on Gaviria in the final 500. Gaviria was too far back just like yesterday, but Sagan seemed impatient. Which is unusual.

I felt like Griepel should have been entitled to his line. He wants Sagan’s slipstream, and given his position over Gaviria at the time, it should be his to claim.

Sagan did not have a choice, QS final leadout man pulled off and Sagan is on the front with 250 to go, not much of a choice at that point. Did not notice wind direction in the sprint, might have been a cross/head?

I think Greipel was fine overall after rewatching the sprint, not a perfect line but no clear drastic movement with clear danger, Gaviria should get the relegation per rules.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Ron_Burgundy wrote:
Gaviria and Griepel both relegated, not sure what i think about that? In the end Sagan benefits the most.


If it’s based just on the shouldering well, I thought that was racing. They both gave as good as they got, looked like.

Tomorrow will be QS getting someone up the road and then bing, bang, bong. A good day for the big dudes. Maybe Gaudin?

Which team benefits most from a big split in the groups? Some GC contender who is way down in time can jump up big.

Just saw that Bernal is riding the tour and is only 1 30 off GC. Geez. They’re loaded.
Last edited by: McNulty: Jul 14, 18 12:10
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [McNulty] [ In reply to ]
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I’m not qualified to dispense advice or anything, but maybe ~155lb Gaviria should consider the merits of trying to push someone named The Gorilla off his line...

Also appears that Gaviria does best with a proper leadout while Groenwegen is better at dealing with a messy sprint, like Sagan.
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