At some point if your Sky you need to STFU and just look at everyone else and tell them to animate the race, not your own guys. That's what being in the yellow with a 2 min advantage and last day of the mountains affords you. They don't need dream scenarios of getting both on the podium....they need to play their advantage of not having to do anything but respond at this point to attacks they only feel are critical to respond too and in a way that limits the opportunity for GT to have a "bad day". So think about 1st, not 2nd.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

GT's best bet is if tomorrow is boring as hell. They need to put their head down, drive the pace so that 6 are left and then look to those guys to force the attacks. They don't need to get Froome in 2nd, they need to make sure GT is protected. Froome attacking to gain time for 2nd only puts GT in danger, and at this point that would be an absolute stupid bike tactics unless we are talking the very very tail end of the stage when the white flag is up and only 15-20s are gained/lost because they are 1k from the finish and GT is "safe". But only then should Froome or even GT "attack", when the GC time gaps are pretty much safe and secure.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Q a little pissed about his fall today:

From cyclingnews:


“It is unfortunate to have suffered this fall; one way or another, it seems I’m always a little fu*cked up. I have bruises on my ankle, shoulder and also on a finger that already hurt me at yesterday’s stage," he said.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

The reason Sky sends their guys to the front isn't to animate. Just the opposite. It's to suppress attacks. Responding to attacks isn't what they want. They want no attacks.

You saw yesterday that they did this so well that when Bardet opened up hostilities, he could barely get clear of Luke Rowe. (though his pressure did eventually drop Luke) And that was pretty late in the race.

I'm a Sky-hater, but that's just good team tactics. Go to the front and drill it all day.

Everything you just said I wrote in my 2nd post. Some of you guys were talking Froome figuring a way to get his 2nd, Sky needs to do the opposite of that. Drive the pace so that no one can attack and when they do, just slowly reel them in. Which again is why I said for them to STFU and drill the pace and use Froome as part of that, have no animations tomorrow, make TD attack or Roglic attack and then simply like a fish on the line, slowly reel them in.

They are in the dream scenario to win if everyone on Sky plays ball....the moment Froome for whatever reason were to attack, all that does is put direct pressure on GT. Opposite of what you want to do if your Sky. You want tomorrow to be dull, not the ones animating the race (when i say "animating" i mean attacking....sitting at the front of the race and drilling it isn't in my book animating it, it's more or less simply dicating the pace with their strength in numbers and thus widdles down the effectiveness of other GC attacks). If other GC guys can attack at this point and stay and way bring nearly 3 mins back on GC, more power to them. But that's one hell of an attack at this point.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I am surprised that no one mentioned it today, but Demare seems to have ventured off his line and slightly impeded the Cofidis rider, who BTW had a great sprint, I think Demare won today because his leadout was perfect, they totally bossed the last 2K.

The way the stage is setup tomorrow while there is a massive amount of climbs, the issue is there is a lot of downhill after each. Nearly 50km of downhill+flats before the cat2/HC finishing climb. That's going to hurt any break who wants to go on the Aspin + Tourmalet. Even the final HC climb has 20km of downhill, so it really is a good stage for Sky to soften the legs of everyone else, but also gives some "time" to pull back even if they are down at the top of each climb. So imo it's setup for the best day for GT to have a "bad day" but quietly not lose a big "bad day" time lose.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Froome won't attack tomorrow because he can't. I don't even think he can set effective tempo for Thomas tomorrow. Froome is just going to sit in and hang on for dear life while Bernal prevents or chases down all the attacks for Thomas.

Every mountain stage we've been picking Froome to go early...to make his mark and be Froomey again. Because it was the obvious thing for him to do in order to win and Sky/Thomas would have been okay with it. But here we are at stage 18 when it's clear Thomas is not only strong enough, but has a pretty insurmountable lead, and now suddenly Froome's attack is going to be strong enough to get a gap? He hasn't gained a single second, on any stage over Thomas or Dumoulin other than the stage Dumoulin flatted. He hasn't made any significant attack that's gotten more than a 25 meter gap.

I'd be happy to eat crow if Froome pulls something off tomorrow...even if he gets a 1 minute lead and Dumoulin pulls it back. I don't see it happening. I think it's more likely that Thomas attacks the last climb in an effort to prove his dominance...then takes it easy on the descent to the line.

I'm finding myself missing Contador a bit this year. He made for a good villain, and was more than willing to try moves to shake up the front of the GC list.

don't be afraid to say it. AC was a great animator. when he was young, he attacked his own team. F'it, I can win on my own.

at the end of the career, he made great suicide attacks.

plus he has great instincts, a great ability to read a race, and that cool pistolero thing.

Great sprint given he had one of the fastest all-time ascents of the Col du Portet yesterday. :)

I'd actually be pretty pissed if I were Kristoff, who's gotten his big body up all the climbs so far in apparently legit fashion.

Not sure why Kristoff would be LaPorte on the other hand...... Kristoff was a good bike length behind LaPorte.

Contador's attack on Lance was legendary, I personally enjoyed watching Lance's ego getting stuffed at the time.

Ahh...for some reason I thought Kristoff was 2nd....

I bet there wasn't anybody who predicted the Froome v Thomas scenario before the start of the tour, at least its kept it intersting for all the haters who said it was going to be a Froome domination snooze fest!

I think tomorrow could be an interesting test of Froome's public statements that he's all behind Thomas. Roglic is likely to attack Froome to try to get a podium spot. And Froome may have to make a decision between going with Roglic and possibly leaving Thomas more isolated with Dumoulin or just letting letting himself fall off the podium.

Can someone explain something to me that I have a hard time understanding?

If someone is attacking the leader (in this case the yellow), how is covering that attack by another rider (such as Bernal or Froome), help shut down the attack?

The goal of the attacker is to put time on the yellow jersey. If the yellow jersey doesn’t cover the attack himself, why should the attacker care who is behind him?

ditto. he left Lance to the Schlecks. watching Lance follow team orders was amusing.

for me, it was earlier. Kloden was hauling everyone up the Abisque when AC "announced his presence with authority". LOL

I don't know that I would call it Lance "following team orders." I think it was more Lance sucking wind and not being able to do anything about it.

Assuming you mean the attacker is Roglic or Dumoulin if they are attacking yellow right? If that's the case, then if one of them were to attack Thomas, and Thomas couldn't match it...then Bernal or Froome matching the attack wouldn't do anything. You're right in that the attacker wouldn't care and keep pressing on because putting time on Froome or Bernal is not the goal, and Froome/Bernal would be better suited sticking with Thomas to set tempo for Thomas and block the wind as the attacker got tired.

Is there a specific case or scenario you can explain that doesn't make sense. Sometimes it's confusing because an attack out of the GC group isn't always an attack on yellow. For example, if Quintana were up by 20 seconds on Froome/Dumoulin heading into tomorrow with the ITT the day after...any attack by Froome or Dumoulin wouldn't be on Quintana...it would be on each other since they know Quintana can't hold a 20 second lead in the ITT and they would want to create separation on each other for the ITT. Or sometimes it's complicated because an attack out of the GC group might not be on yellow...but against a guy that's just ahead of them in the GC because they know yellow is realistically out of reach.

Per my comment above, it's likely Froome that's going to be under heavy attack by Roglic and Quintana, who are 16 and 59 seconds behind Froome, respectively. Mostly Roglic, since Roglic is a very respectable TTer. But I'm sure Movistar and Quintana would also love to put the screws to Froome, even if only for the day. If Roglic, Quintana, and Landa just start tag-teaming each other on Froome, I'll love it.

And if Froome drops everyone on Tourmalet and does an amazing 80K solo win, I will set my TV on fire.

This what makes tomorrow intriguing, Roglic will likely test froombutols legs at some point (prolly on the col d'aubisque).

I wouldn,t be surprised in froome tries something on a descent.

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res, non verba

I’ll jump in that fire and call it a protest against fairness....all kidding aside, the best cyclist in the world losing after what the 3rd GT in a row leaves the sport atleast looking fair/legit/reasonable. Bad optics in your sport if he truly can just wait til last moment and smoke the field.

ETA: nba is running into this problem with the finals already decided with super team in GS. Yanks losing and the royals/rays/cards winning every now and then creates a fairer “competitive balance”. So it’s good for cycling biz that Froome can’t just show up and win *every* GT he enters nearly every time now.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Pretty sure your TV is safe...LOL.

I'd love to see Roglic attack the last climb. If he times it right where there isn't enough road left for Sky to feel he's a threat to Thomas, they might let Dumoulin chase. That might bring the possibility that he not only passes Froome in the GC, but gets closer to Dumoulin heading into the ITT. I really don't think Froome is a factor to do anything in the mountains. Sure...he might throw down a solid TT...but if Roglic goes...I think he looks to Dumoulin to close it down rather than to do it himself. I also don't see how Thomas is in danger as long as he avoids a really bad day. Any attack from far out enough to net 2 minutes means he likely has more than one Sky domestique not named Froome to chase it down and keep things under control.

Sagan is going to have a very long day protecting green. Hope he makes it. If not, Kristoff is next and has been pretty remarkable hanging on.

I remember standing on the side of the road in 2010 and seeing Cav delirious, weaving all over the road trying to get over the Tourmelet. A teammate was back with him, screaming at him to "stop effing doing that" and get on his wheel.