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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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T3_Beer wrote:
Everybody's BMC contract is expiring....that team in it's current form is history.

Didn't know BMC was pulling sponsorship. But seems just today that CCC is going to pick up the team next year, with GVA heading the team and focusing on classics. So there's at least one rider who seems to have a contract in place.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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BMC's sponsorship is dead and word is they'll be bike supplier to Dimension Data next year.

New team is building around GvA with no GC aspirations. Sounds like an iteration of current QS squad for classics and stage hunting.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Porte has signed with trek for two years. Trek likes guys in the twilight of their careers
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [IamSpartacus] [ In reply to ]
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IamSpartacus wrote:
Porte has signed with trek for two years. Trek likes guys in the twilight of their careers

Strange to think of Porte as in the twilight of his career when through a combination of bad luck and bad days he simply doesn't seem to have had the highlights he should (yet?). Some decent one week wins, but in the GTs nothing - couple of top tens but no podiums, not even a stage win barring the TTT last week. Hopefully he can follow Cadel Evans who finally got his GT wins at a similar stage of his career (though earlier was arguably more thwarted by dopers than anything else)
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [cartsman] [ In reply to ]
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cartsman wrote:
IamSpartacus wrote:
Porte has signed with trek for two years. Trek likes guys in the twilight of their careers


Strange to think of Porte as in the twilight of his career when through a combination of bad luck and bad days he simply doesn't seem to have had the highlights he should (yet?). Some decent one week wins, but in the GTs nothing - couple of top tens but no podiums, not even a stage win barring the TTT last week. Hopefully he can follow Cadel Evans who finally got his GT wins at a similar stage of his career (though earlier was arguably more thwarted by dopers than anything else)

yep. He is 33 i believe?
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [IamSpartacus] [ In reply to ]
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IamSpartacus wrote:
yep. He is 33 i believe?

Yup, same age as Cuddles was when he won the Giro, then he was 34 when he won the Tour. There's a fair few Tour winners aged 32-34, very few past that and the oldest was 36 (and that was waaaay back in 1922). Records are there to be broken of course, and there's always Chris Horner's Vuelta win to look to for inspiration (albeit that win should have an asterisk next to it in many people's view), but have to assume that if Richie doesn't win a Tour in the next couple of seasons then it's pretty unlikely he ever will.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [LifeTri] [ In reply to ]
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LifeTri wrote:
Can someone please explain to me why GvA can't win? Is it that he cannot climb with everyone else?
In cycling the same guys take part in multiple types of races but they serve different roles and have different targets depending on their strengths, weaknesses, what else they're doing that season, their team strategy, etc.....
It's not just a bunch of guys trying to do the same thing.

Who is the best road cyclist in the world? I assume most people would say either Chris Froome or Peter Sagan. But they can't really be compared. Froome races grand tours for general classification. Sagan does one day races like the monuments and the world championships and he also rides for stage wins and the points jersey in the grand tours. You won't see Sagan winning time trials or mountain top finishes, and you won't see Froome contesting many flat bunch sprints. Their skills overlap, but they're only occasionally in direct competition.

Victory in the grand tours is dependent first and foremost on ability to climb. The lightweight climbers may give up a little in terms of power to drag, but not too much and they can survive very well on fast flat stages by drafting. The really fast guys on flatter terrain can't do the same on the mountains where they lack a little in terms of power to weight and drafting is massively less useful. So GVA, will not be able to keep up with the real climbers for long. If the climbers play it safe for a while he might manage to keep up, but if they go for it, he'll be out the back in short order.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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Looking good for break to make it and GvA to stay in yellow. Calmejane ftw...
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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Ai_1 wrote:
LifeTri wrote:
Can someone please explain to me why GvA can't win? Is it that he cannot climb with everyone else?

In cycling the same guys take part in multiple types of races but they serve different roles and have different targets depending on their strengths, weaknesses, what else they're doing that season, their team strategy, etc.....
It's not just a bunch of guys trying to do the same thing.

Who is the best road cyclist in the world? I assume most people would say either Chris Froome or Peter Sagan. But they can't really be compared. Froome races grand tours for general classification. Sagan does one day races like the monuments and the world championships and he also rides for stage wins and the points jersey in the grand tours. You won't see Sagan winning time trials or mountain top finishes, and you won't see Froome contesting many flat bunch sprints. Their skills overlap, but they're only occasionally in direct competition.

Victory in the grand tours is dependent first and foremost on ability to climb. The lightweight climbers may give up a little in terms of power to drag, but not too much and they can survive very well on fast flat stages by drafting. The really fast guys on flatter terrain can't do the same on the mountains where they lack a little in terms of power to weight and drafting is massively less useful. So GVA, will not be able to keep up with the real climbers for long. If the climbers play it safe for a while he might manage to keep up, but if they go for it, he'll be out the back in short order.

Or to put it in a few words. He's too heavy to be quick enough in the mountains.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [tuckandgo] [ In reply to ]
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tuckandgo wrote:
Ai_1 wrote:
LifeTri wrote:
Can someone please explain to me why GvA can't win? Is it that he cannot climb with everyone else?

In cycling the same guys take part in multiple types of races but they serve different roles and have different targets depending on their strengths, weaknesses, what else they're doing that season, their team strategy, etc.....
It's not just a bunch of guys trying to do the same thing.

Who is the best road cyclist in the world? I assume most people would say either Chris Froome or Peter Sagan. But they can't really be compared. Froome races grand tours for general classification. Sagan does one day races like the monuments and the world championships and he also rides for stage wins and the points jersey in the grand tours. You won't see Sagan winning time trials or mountain top finishes, and you won't see Froome contesting many flat bunch sprints. Their skills overlap, but they're only occasionally in direct competition.

Victory in the grand tours is dependent first and foremost on ability to climb. The lightweight climbers may give up a little in terms of power to drag, but not too much and they can survive very well on fast flat stages by drafting. The really fast guys on flatter terrain can't do the same on the mountains where they lack a little in terms of power to weight and drafting is massively less useful. So GVA, will not be able to keep up with the real climbers for long. If the climbers play it safe for a while he might manage to keep up, but if they go for it, he'll be out the back in short order.


Or to put it in a few words. He's too heavy to be quick enough in the mountains.
It had already been put in a few words. My answer is intended as a more complete explanation of what's going on to give some context for the uninitiated. I think it's fairly accurate and about as simple as I can make it. You disagree?
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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When the contenders decide they want to get rid of GVA, they will. It's just a matter of time......
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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T3_Beer wrote:
When the contenders decide they want to get rid of GVA, they will. It's just a matter of time......

Great ride from him today though, always good to see riders result respecting the yellow jersey. Hell of a ride from Alaphilippe as well!
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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that is a good summary. well said. I love this

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Their skills overlap, but they're only occasionally in direct competition.

remember stage 11 of the 2016 TdF? there was a crazy crosswind and Sagan and Bodnar went off the front. Froome stunned everyone and went with him, as did Geraint Thomas. boom, the Green and the Yellow sprinting for a stage win. that was awesome.

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After the stage, asked why he undertook such a daring move, he said: "We are artists".
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [cartsman] [ In reply to ]
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cartsman wrote:
T3_Beer wrote:
When the contenders decide they want to get rid of GVA, they will. It's just a matter of time......


Great ride from him today though, always good to see riders result respecting the yellow jersey. Hell of a ride from Alaphilippe as well!

Yep, you're not kidding. GVA gets much respect for today!
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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Anyone here doing the Velon Fantasy TDF?

Pactimo brand ambassador, ask me about promo codes
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [cartsman] [ In reply to ]
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Great ride by both of them. Guess it's foolish to now bet again Alaphilippe in a break. Like Sagan, he has more patience and tactical noir. Look out.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [cartsman] [ In reply to ]
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cartsman wrote:
T3_Beer wrote:
When the contenders decide they want to get rid of GVA, they will. It's just a matter of time......


Great ride from him today though, always good to see riders result respecting the yellow jersey. Hell of a ride from Alaphilippe as well!

Perfect day for a breakaway, non mountain top finish, early sprint point, generally an "easy" day. Uran is clearly done, Valverde was getting gapped off today, he will be done tomorrow. Majka/Zakarin also getting dropped today. If you get dropped today you are for sure not hanging on tomorrow.

Tomorrow will likely be the first test, 108km day, with a tough climb out of the gate. If your sky, tomorrow is the perfect day for a serious attack early, its either up or down all day. Conversely, Sky might simply control the pace all day to set up Thursdays final climb as their moment to take over the race. I do suspect that Sky would rather have Froome take the lead then deal with Thomas taking the lead. With the current situation they are effectively down one rider until this is sorted out. Alpe d'Huez is a perfect climb for Froome and the more i think about it he will likely target that climb. Thomas can often fake it for two weeks, but then fades.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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Ron_Burgundy wrote:
cartsman wrote:
T3_Beer wrote:
When the contenders decide they want to get rid of GVA, they will. It's just a matter of time......


Great ride from him today though, always good to see riders result respecting the yellow jersey. Hell of a ride from Alaphilippe as well!


Perfect day for a breakaway, non mountain top finish, early sprint point, generally an "easy" day. Uran is clearly done, Valverde was getting gapped off today, he will be done tomorrow. Majka/Zakarin also getting dropped today. If you get dropped today you are for sure not hanging on tomorrow.

Tomorrow will likely be the first test, 108km day, with a tough climb out of the gate. If your sky, tomorrow is the perfect day for a serious attack early, its either up or down all day. Conversely, Sky might simply control the pace all day to set up Thursdays final climb as their moment to take over the race. I do suspect that Sky would rather have Froome take the lead then deal with Thomas taking the lead. With the current situation they are effectively down one rider until this is sorted out. Alpe d'Huez is a perfect climb for Froome and the more i think about it he will likely target that climb. Thomas can often fake it for two weeks, but then fades.

Agree on all points. I'll bet Froomey will show us what he's got on Thursday.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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I think even if Thomas was level or just behind Froome in the standings it would make sense to protect him and keep him in contention as long as possible, unless or until a situation arises where he needs to bury himself for Froome. You never know when somebody is going to crash out, and Froome has the Giro in his legs. Will be interesting to see whether Thomas fades, I know he has in the past but he's also had to work pretty hard in the past and has raised his stage race form to a new level this year.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Great ride by GvA. Only caught the last 22 km, but will go back as I'm interested to see how he got into the break and how he rode as the break dissolved and Alaphilippe got away.

Looks like Uran is done and dusted for the GC.

Kudos to Martin for being a competitor and making sure the lead group didn't let Uran, Zacharin, and Jungels get back as the crested the final climb.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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GvA picked up more time, could conceivably hang on again tomorrow. Sagan picked up a good haul of points too.

Uran does look done but there are a number of people on basically the same time as Froome, including Nibali and Landa only 6 seconds down. Tomorrow should be interesting to see who goes full gas. At some point other riders need to put pressure on Sky and not let them continue to dictate.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah...I was kind of hoping that the GC group would just ride the whole last climb tempo and let GVA maintain the 3+ minute lead he had on them at one point, to build his overall lead to around 4+. In hopes that some of tomorrow's drama would be him TT'ing the last climb to see if he can hang on.

At 2:22, it's still theoretically possible, but he put in a huge effort today, and I suspect the racing will be on tomorrow in the GC group. The final climb is long, but isn't that steep. The overall stage is only 108 km, so I suspect the tempo will be pretty high on the first two climbs which are steeper.

I'm guessing Sagan jumped in the early break then pulled the plug after the intermediate? Not shocked by that move, but I would have thought Gaviria could have hung in there as it was only 29 km in. I'm wondering after his relegation on stage 8 if he's kind of giving up on Green and saving himself to just get through the mountain stages and focus on stage wins for the flat stages. It's probably the wise thing to do given the uncertainty of how he'll hold up in the mountains and also seeing Griepel, Demare, and Groenwegen all not chasing for the intermediate either.
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Jason N] [ In reply to ]
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That's what Sagan did and imagine he'll keep doing the same. With ~100 point lead already time's running out for Gaviria. 13 could be a sprint finish or Bora and Trek could go full gas on early climbs to try and get rid of other sprinters. Baring a break sticking, stage 14 has Sagan written all over it. That leaves 18 and 21 as the only clear sprint stages. Maybe they go for Polka Dot instead?
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]
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Sagan will do the same for sure tomorrow. If Gaviria doesn't go too and gives away another 20 points then it's a done deal unless Sagan gets completely boxed out or flats on one (or more) of the sprint stages while Gaviria wins.

13 is a toss up. Might be the right call in that Bora and Trek all take it easy in the mountains and unleash hell on stage 13 to drop the sprinters.

Stage 15 I think is too long and steep a finish for Sagan, but you never know. I think the GC looks to create time gaps here and Sagan gets spit out before the top. It will be interesting to see how the GC looks like going into this stage. Assuming Sky is at the top in one form or another, I don't think they put in a big effort to bring the break back and put the time bonuses in play. So will another team come to the front to bring those time bonuses (and a possible Sagan stage victory)?
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Re: **2018 TdF** Spoiler Alerts [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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This is all very helpful, thank you. Go GvA!
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