Hard to vote against Roglic, so that's where my mind votes. Would love for this youth trend this year to continue to Pogacar, in the hopes that it convinces DQS to unleash Remco next year. But I would mostly rather hope for the trend of South America showing up big so I'll go with Lopez as well!

I also can't wait to see the chaos of movistar

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

I'll buck the Lopez trend and go with Carapaz.

Who will be the first to buck the South American trend? :)

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/...a-espana-2019-435302

I haven't really paid much attention to the Vuelta lead up so I have no idea what the route is like, but I have to pick Roglic, they are bringing the team to the Vuelta that they should have brought to the Giro, they are by far the strongest team in the race and I believe that Roglic maybe learned from coming in a bit too hot at the Giro.

remember how invincible Roglic looked, only to fade in the third week? not sure what will happen this time, but it won't surprise me if something similar occurs

Interesting mix of GC riders. Lopez is probably a good pick. Carapaz as well, but with his exit to Ineos, it just gives Movistar even more reason to ride dysfunctional. Quintana is probably riding for himself and Valverde may have a world's defense on his mind. Roglic..I'm just not sure he'll hang on the super steep stuff but he should benefit from the TTT and ITT.

Vuelta is so hard to predict as most riders are either recovering from the TdF, or have been quiet since the Giro.

He crashed in a crit and now can't race the Vuelta? You gotta' be kiddin' me. What a bummer.

You hit the nail on the head. I have been waiting to see Roglic really put together 3 weeks with no hiccups. However, I did watch the GCN preview and like other Vuelta there is just some insanely steep climbs. Up to 28%! That makes me think that a kinda berried guy like Roglic will struggle. I am going to go out on a limb and pick Danny Martínez from EF. Super punchy climber who TT. EF’s roster suggests that they aren’t screwing around as well. Decent lineup with a bunch of new-pros or less well known riders.

Does Roglic pull a Yates? He looked super strong in the Giro (like Yates) then the third week he tanked hard (like Yates). So does he come to the Vuelta and dominate (like Yates)?

I don't think Roglic tanked hard in the Giro. He finished 3rd, 2:30 down. He was gapped a few times, but never caved in entirely. Yates finished an hour and a quarter down.

Ok, maybe tanked was a bit much but he was cruising and covering attacks then couldn’t defend in the last part of the Giro. Just looking at the similarities to Yates and speculating he could do what Yates did at the Vuelta last year.

Yeah, looking at the Jumbo roster, it looks like a formidable team....De Plus is missing, but Kruijswijk, Gesink, Bennett, Kuss are a hell of a set of climbing domestiques. Martin, Powless, Hofstede as rouleurs. That's pretty solid. Plus Roglic is fresh. Pretty good bet.

Jumbo will put some time into everyone on stage 1. Love that the first week starts with little preamble and gets right down to biz with tough stages and summit finish.

Going to say Roglic does a Yates, learns from Giro mistake and gets it done. Would be glad to see Lopez or Uran win but I think there’s enough TTing to give Roglic a decent buffer.

So, Roglic, Lopez, Uran

+1

Roglic was on good form at Tirreno-Adriatico way back in March, 9 weeks prior to the start of the Giro; he put in a great performance at Romandie just prior to the Giro and of course in the the Prologue TT, but it's no wonder that he fell apart trying to ride that form (or peak twice) in those 12 weeks, especially considering that the Giro parcours was so heavily backloaded with mountains in the final week.

I think he'll have learnt from that and will be favourite even though perhaps the climbs in this Vuelta don't suit him so well.

The TTT is super short (13km). It was a challenge to plan as some of the riders are 60 watts (CP) less than the strongest riders. There is a nice hill in there so that helped balance things out a bit with the stronger riders being a bit heavier.

But I think it will be an interesting TTT. I am anxious to see how many teams finish with more than 5 riders. I bet ou see riders dropped at half way through.

Ah, didn’t realize it was that short and ITT so long. Probably gives Roglic more of an advantage, he could take 1-2 minutes out of climbers in 36k.

The average weight of the team for the Vuelta is 3kg less than the Tour.
Not sure that is by design or just who is left over at the end of the season

EF is going to shake out at the Vuelta like Ineos did at the Tour. It will become more and more clear Dani Martinez is the stronger rider and Rigo will end up second string (or third... Higuita).

Agreed, Roglic had a heavy early season. The comparison to Yates last year is apples and oranges for the reasons you mentioned. Yates blew up because he burned tons of matches in the first 2 weeks of the Giro. Roglic faded slightly because he tried to stay at peak for a long time. While Yates was able to regroup and win the Vuelta last year, I think it's fundamentally different how Roglic will have to regroup.

The Velogames league is still open if anyone is interested. I have been dominating the season, since I have been the only one signed up!

Going to be a great tour and happy to see its on the Olympic Channel again. Looks like its Bob & Phil again.

Its so wide open. On paper Jumbo Visma is the strongest team, but I think Astana will show up strong. I also agree Martinez is the GC rider for EF Education, I am hoping Uran will be as gracious as Thomas was for Bernal in the TDF,

Another thing I love is all the Americans in the race, I think Dombrowski should be in instead of Tejay.

Sam Bennett will dominate the sprints but watch out for Jakobsen.

Some love for Will Barta. Making his Grand Tour debut with CCC.

I'm going with Dani Boy. He should be fresh. Tejay, then Rigo, then Hugh, fall away then Dani by himself on the climbs. Not a bad set up.

Shoot, I wish I had thought to ask earlier. It’s probably too late, but what’s the league code?

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

League Code- 521835710

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